http://www.opednews.com/articles/MSNBC-s-False-Attacks-on-Y-by-John-Wilson-081108-385.htmlHeadlined on 11/9/08:
MSNBC's False Attacks on Young Voters
by John Wilson
MSNBC has a story declaring "Young voters not essential to Obama triumph." According to this article by Tom Curry,
AnaMaria Arumi, who directs the exit poll desk for NBC, MSNBC and Telemundo, has done the calculations based on the exit poll data and here is what she found: On a state-by-state level, when she re-ran the numbers as if there were no voters under 30, the only states that would switch to Republican presidential candidate John McCain are Indiana and North Carolina.
The MSNBC blog First Read adds a snarky aside, "(Never mind the cynics among us who may now send all these "young voters did it" press releases into their junk email folder.)"
Perhaps those cynics should hold on to their press releases for a moment. This may have seemed like a powerful story. Unfortunately, it's not quite true. Obama won more than just Indiana and North Carolina due to young voters.
In Florida, Obama won 61-37 over McCain among the 18-29 group, which was 15% of the voters. A 24-point gap times 15% = a 3.6% advantage. Obama won Florida 50.88-48.37, only a margin of 2.51%. Young voters won Florida for Obama.
In Ohio, Obama won 61-36 among the 18-29 group, which was 17% of voters. That's a gap of 4.25%. Obama won Ohio 51.15-47.25, a margin of 3.9%. So Obama would have lost Ohio, too, without young voters. And that one electoral vote in Nebraska, too.
Now it is true that Obama's landslide was so overwhelming that he would have still won the election without these four states (or even Virginia, which he would barely win without young voters). But Obama's margin of victory would be cut in half in Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Iowa, putting him perilously close to losing if McCain had been able to stage a comeback.
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