Some observations on Joe Lieberman:

[backscatter712]

Yep, he'll probably at least stay in the caucus, and he might even keep his chair of Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. Personally, at the minimum, I'd move him to chair of a different committee, where his views are more in line with most Democrats, as a public penalty for his treason against the Democratic Party.

But the big action is in the smoke-filled rooms. The big movers, including Obama, Reid, and Bill Clinton want something other than tossing Joe to the curb. What is that action?

Saving face.

It's probably the number-one most popular activity in the Beltway - avoiding any sort of public humiliation. And if a deal can be cut that can enable a person to save face, it will be cut, because the person enabling another to save face may want the favor returned later.

Lieberman gambled on McCain, rather than Obama being the one about to move into the Oval Office in January. He gambled and lost, and now, he's owing everyone else at the table a hell of a lot of chips.

So what's likely is that Joe won't get slapped too hard (though he'll get some public rebuke) but he'll remain a part of the caucus, and he will chair something, maybe even keep his current chairmanship, or maybe get moved to a different chair. In exchange, because he did try to make Obama and the Democrats lose face (namely by trying to make Obama lose his election,) he will owe Obama and the Democrats in the Senate BIG TIME!!! In other words, to be a little more crude, and more satisfying to those of us (including me) that are highly pissed off at Lieberman for stabbing us in the back, HE BECOMES OBAMA'S BITCH!!!

Obama's got a whole stack of cards labeled "Free Favor" from Joe Lieberman in exchange for helping him save face. He's probably got enough concessions to prevent Lieberman from participating in GOP filibusters, to keep relatively quiet in terms of his views on Obama's upcoming plan to extricate us from Iraq and simmer down the tensions in the Middle East, he'll vote for things like Obama's health care bills and budgets and so-on with no strings attached. Yes, Joe could use his chair of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee to investigate the Obama administration and be a pain in the ass, but I expect that because of how much he owes in terms of favors and influence to Obama, he won't do anything. He'd better not if he knows what's good for him... Obama's making him an offer he can't refuse.

Obama showed he knows how to play the favors and saving-face game in Washington, and that shows simply by him getting elected as President. I'm sure Joe's gonna get some humility driven into him, though those lessons are likely to happen behind closed doors.

Sure it'll piss us off - we don't get to see it as we're not insiders on these sorts of deals, but I'm sure Obama's gonna make sure he gets decent mileage out of Joe, one way or another. Barack's got Joe by the short and curlies now - count on it!

[AllieB]

1. I also think the Dems will get their revenge when Liebermann is least expecting it.

If he oversteps in the least, they will turn around and strip him of his chairmanships.

[Frank Cannon]

5. Sure they will, Charlie Brown

[backscatter712]

7. Obama's a lot smarter than this.

[scarletwoman]

2. Realism. An exotic species around here. k&r (nt)

[Jade Fox]

3. Agree....

I think they the put the fear of god into Lieberman, so now he can be their useful idiot.

[Dragonfli]

4. Maybe we can get Zell a cabinet post as well then?

The last time Joe "owed a favor" it was not honored - (helping to get a dem elected president remember?)
He has no honor and he has attacked our party, what am I not getting?

[backscatter712]

6. Certainly, any deal with Lieberman will have to have...

a lot of "trust, but verify" provisions in it - in which Lieberman will have to do things for Obama and for the Democrats in order to retain his chairs. And certainly, if he stabs us in the back again, he can kiss his chairs bye-bye.

My whole point is that Obama and the Democratic Caucus will have Lieberman by the nuts. And once we can get that leverage, we can force him to do quite a lot for us - help us break filibusters, vote for getting us out of Iraq, bring us universal health care, etc.

As the Corleones would do, we should be making Lieberman an offer he can't refuse, and make sure we're ready to leave that horse's head in his bed the instant he misbehaves.

[Dragonfli]

8. How does one "verify" honor or lack thereof?

How many times does one need to get a knife in the back before one figures that out?
He keeps doing it again, and again, and again. "One more time and I swear you'll be out" does not work after a half a dozen times. You seem quite intelligent but do not appear to know much about human nature as it applies to multiple repeat offenders.
I envy your faith in the goodness of men and their ability to reform. I once felt all people were good, or could learn to be so and I miss that. I am not being sarcastic - I really do envy you.

[backscatter712]

9. I was thinking a little more concretely.

Certainly there's something more concrete that Joe could offer than his word of honor.

Maybe things like specific votes for specific bills that will be upcoming. With carrot-and-stick style provisions - if he votes correctly, he gets a chair of something other than Homeland Security. If he stabs us in the back again, the door will be open for his chairmanships to be immediately yanked, and no pork for him!

It's not like Obama doesn't already have experience with this sort of thing.

[Dragonfli]

10. I understand the thinking - but only honor can guarantee a vote

That coupled with Lieberman's own experience playing the senate games and the near certainty that he would demand a chairmanship first or threaten to go full R combined with a wimpy senate leader and his friends in the Senate to vote for him...

I see this as him getting the carrot first then putting in the knife - like he did after his primary. Remember his friends supported him then even over the Dem because his pay back was supposed to be his help electing a Democratic president.

I do not trust Harry to handle the outcome as I would BO, and yet we are told to. I hope I am wrong, but I have dealt with this character flaw as a foreman for years and made these very mistakes many times hoping for the guy to "come around".

Harry would make a piss poor foreman and keep repeating this dance until the entire crew failed for the sake of trying to save and use one flawed human resource.

If Joe's "mistakes" were a once or twice issue I would have reservations but would understand giving him another shot. Habituals act habitually. Just MHO, but I know what I see here because I have seen it before and I still envy you. ;-)

[Libertyfirst]

11. It's now or never on Lieberman.

Can you imagine the crap that would hit the fan if he was removed later because he betrayed the Dems once again? And he will. The sorry bastard doesn't have the honor of a two bit slut. At least the slut earns the two bits. WTF has Lieberman done to earn anything? If they don't get him now, they never will. I battered my checkbook for Obama (and will never regret it), but also for the DNC, Hagan, Franken, Biden, Martian, etc. If the Senate doesn't punish Lieberman, the checkbook is retired.

[Roy]

12. This would be a smart move only....

If they could use Joe's McCain support to commit him to key votes for Dems and Obama.

Because they inwardly know that he will not be electable in 2010.

Ned Lamont will have a very small advertising budget, because Lieberman has already written enough ads for the complete 2010 campaign.

Dems get key votes from Joe, Dems get rid of Joe in 2010.

Not a bad deal.