DOW down 3% at noon. I guess 8600 is the new 14000

[Liberal_in_LA]

THere was a time I thought the DOW would bounce back to it's old highs within a few weeks. Not anymore.

[But....]

1. Nope...

This is going to take a year or more to work out.:hurts:

[nichomachus]

2. Do the math

To go from 14000 t0 8600 is a 39% drop.

To go from 8600 to 14000 is a 63% increase. That's a huge increase.

[Liberal_in_LA]

6. good point. Hadn't thought of it that way.

[nichomachus]

8. Most people don't

It's always harder to gain ground than to lose it. It's the opposite, however, with weight.

[Warpy]

3. I posted last January

that I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Dow bottom out at 7000 before we got Stupid out of office.

Now I hope I wasn't overly optimistic.

What I do know is that this economy can't go on the way it has, fattening the supply side and starving the demand side. We can't export our industry and expect to survive on flipping burgers and shuffling paper around. It's just not going to work.

Free trade hasn't worked for anyone in this country but the wealthy and their managerial class. Deregulation only worked for the thieves running hedge funds.

Obama's rhetoric to date shows he has a glimmer of understanding all this. Whether or not he's allowed to put it into practice is moot.

[Davis_X_Machina]

4. 40% pullback...

...is average for bears. That gives you right around here -- 8500-8750.

This level holding would be a good sign, that for equities at least, this is an ordinary market phenomenon, not TEOTWAWKI

[CK_John]

5. I think the bottom will be around 7700 before Xmas. n/t

[Liberal_in_LA]

7. OH NOES!

[Leopolds Ghost]

9. I'm not saying we won't get our hair mussed. 6500 tops... depending on the breaks.

Mr. President, our competitors are stealing more than our allies.

We cannot afford a Bank Theft Gap.

Gentlemen, you can't steal money here, this is the Treasury Room!

[GoesTo11]

10. Taking a long term (8 year) view

When Bush took office, the market was already objectively over-valued, and then betting on the administration, we could see decline coming. It's not that big a surprise that the markets overall are down by about a third - not even counting inflation - since then.

Under Clinton, the deficit got under control and the market nearly quadrupled.

Where do you think the market will be this time in 2016? Will it drop in half again or will it be up at some decent level? I don't want to see a bubble but I think Dow 21,000 is about right for the end of the Obama admin (only 50% above its high, and about 9-10% returns from now through the next 8 years, as opposed to the negative returns of the last 8 years).

Don't let the day to day or week to week fluctuations in the death throes of the Bush era freak you out.

[Neshanic]

11. Dow 21,000 in 2012? That is delusional.

[GoesTo11]

12. In 2016, not 2012. Back up to 14000 by 2012 is reasonable.

Half the loss recovered just from confidence in having grownups in charge, half is just growth.