The Lieberman Conundrum: "No idea" how Democratic caucus vote will turn out

[DeepModem Mom]

WP: The Lieberman Conundrum
Chris Cillizza

Nine days after a presidential election in which he actively supported Republican John McCain, the fate of Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) within the Democratic caucus remains an open question.

Lieberman got a major boost of support earlier this week from President-elect Barack Obama who has urged that the Connecticut Senator be allowed to continue to caucus with Democrats.

Then, last night, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh offered this readout on Lieberman's future prospects during an appearance on "The Rachel Maddow Show":

"I simply think it maximizes the chances of getting progressive policies a better outcome if we have a Joe Lieberman, who is a little reticent, who apologizes for the things that he said that were way over the line, and instead is trying to do the right thing, instead of a embittered Joe Lieberman or a Republican replacement who will not be with us any of the time." Not exactly a ringing endorsement but, at this point, Lieberman will probably take it. He is well aware that many of his colleagues felt as though his advocacy for McCain and, to a certain extent, against Obama, crossed the line and believe he needs to be punished.

The incident most commonly cited by disgruntled Democrats is Lieberman's speech at the Republican National Convention in early September. While he had promised in the runup to the address that he would only speak for McCain and not against Obama, many Democrats saw his speech as a denunciation of their nominee and an inexcusable act. "Senator Obama is a gifted and eloquent young man who can do great things for our country in the years ahead," said Lieberman. "But eloquence is no substitute for a record -- not in these tough times."

Can Democratic Senators look beyond these comments -- not to mention the fact that Lieberman was a regular presence on the campaign trail with McCain in the closing days of the race? We'll find out some of the answers next week when the Senate Democratic caucus convenes. At that meeting, a vote is expected on whether Lieberman can retain his chairmanship of the Homeland Security Committee. The vote will be a secret ballot and even the most plugged-in Senate operatives acknowledge they have no idea how it might turn out....

"Right now, folks say it's 50/50 that he retains the chairmanship," said one well connected Democratic Senate aide.

No matter what the outcome of the vote next week, questions will remain. If Lieberman retains the chairmanship, how will the base, who loathes the Independent Senator, react? If Lieberman is stripped out his chairmanship, will he stay in the party?

With Democrats still retaining an outside shot at controlling 60 seats at the start of the 111th Congress -- they would need to win the undecided races in Alaska, Georgia and Minnesota -- Lieberman's future party loyalty is not simply an academic question. It could be crucial to just how much control Democrats can exert over Congress in the coming months and years.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/11/the_lieberman_conundrum.html#more

[azurnoir]

1. Given Joe's history

who says that if he retains his chairmanship he will vote with the Democrats? Especially if he is the 60th vote?

[crikkett]

2. Q: "If Lieberman retains the chairmanship, how will the base, who loathes [him], react?"

A:

The base will piss and moan from their comfy chairs for a couple of news cycles and take no further action. Because the base will have two years to get over it, just like they got over the non-impeachment of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.

The base is like that, it's a good and obedient base that takes what it's given.

[Winterblues]

3. I just wonder how the voters in Conn feel now

Remember how Joe ran on the meme that he was needed to insure we have a Democratic President. How he, instead of Ned, could make that happen..