The first quarter of 2009 will be an economic nightmare.

[trumad]

I sell Cisco network equipment in Central Florida and I have several large customers. Everyone of them has a flat line budget. Another words--- they don't have any spending money projected in 2009 for new projects, upgrades, etc. And this is in the tech sector where lack of upgrades could be the kiss of death. At the beginning of 2008, these same companies projected an average of 30 percent increase in their budgets.

As I said--- this will all come home to roost in the first 3 months of 2009.

[Burma Jones]

1. The first two years of the Reagan Administration were terrible

I remember graduating from college in 1982 with news outlets saying we were graduating into the worst economy since the Great Depression.......

Politically, if you're going to have tough times, now's the time to have them.....

[Fumesucker]

7. I had a young family at that time..

And we were in Florida, which sucks for employment anyway, too many retirees that will work for peanuts because they don't really need it and just want to stay busy because they're bored.

Yeah, it was tough then.

[Cassandra]

2. Not to be a...

grammar/spelling/context nanny but:
"Another words" should be "In other words".
As to your point, I think supply-side is pretty dead. When there's no demand, why increase supply?

[RebelOne]

6. "In other words" or "Another words," we get the gist of his sentence.

I'm a copy editor and I see some horrendous grammar errors here, but I am polite enough not to correct the poster.

[Cassandra]

11. Sometimes I take the risk of being rude...

to educate others who may not realize they are seeing incorrect usage. You should too, as it's more rude to leave people in ignorance.
I try not to bother with obvious typos unless they skew the meaning of the sentence.

[trumad]

12. Thanks for pointing that out

I tend to make those kind of mistakes when I rush a post....

[Breeze54]

3. I think it will be a helluva lot longer than that!!

You'd better get ready. I think we're looking at a world of hurt, well into 2010 and beyond.

On edit: Tech has been very hard hit, as I'm sure you know and a lot of huge tech companies
are laying off, ie. AT&T, and have been doing that quietly for a while now. And the war in Iraq
uses a lot of Cisco. Perhaps that's a good thing though. I mean if the military doesn't need as much.

[HereSince1628]

4. Yes, for certrain things won't get better until well past 2009

The economy will crush all initiatives that require financial support.

As there is no plan to get out of SW Asia, but rather to pivot forces in Afganistan/Pakistan there isn't going to be a "peace dividend'

[theophilus]

5. I think you're wrong. I think 09 will start slow but I think

Obama and America will surprise most "economic" pundits. I think that Mr. O will hit the ground running with a massive U.S. hiring campaign and start creating millions of good jobs with health benefits, etc. The perception of a Sunshine Administration and a sane approach to Bubble-Up economics (copyright me) will start turning things around by Summer 09.
I hope to see all of you pessimists eating crow on the other side.

Quit crying, gloomy gusses. This is a great opportunity!

[nichomachus]

10. If I end up eating crow

it will mean that the OP was right and you were wrong. I don't like the idea of crow, but in tough times, I guess I would eat it.

A little data to back up your "Little Mary Sunshine" prediction would be nice.

[theophilus]

15. I think I replied to the OP. I only have a little less data

than trumad has in the OP. NOBODY knows what is going to happen and economists are often way off.....imo.

[trumad]

13. I think it will take longer than 1 quarter for Obamanomics to kick in.

[theophilus]

16. I think so, too. But they are going to kick in with a vengeance. n/t

[nichomachus]

8. I've heard the same

I do contract work in the high-tech sector. The guy I work for has already told me that not one of his client -- all top-tier companies -- has any spending planned for Q1 of 2009. They like what he does for them. It's very successful for them. But, no one is planning on spending any money that's not already committed to. It's going to be pretty bleak.

[IDemo]

9. I've been laid off for all but two weeks through the beginning of the year

That's after losing our benefits co-pay and a week of vacation time. Next year I'm expecting probable pay cuts and further layoffs here.

[bigtree]

14. an early stimulus plan could address this

with a Clinton-like investment in high tech R&D

[roamer65]

17. July 1981 - November 1982

That was the length of the worst recession since the Great Depression. This one is going to make 1982 look like a picnic in the park.