How I know the economy is in the shitter --

[Hell Hath No Fury]

One of the many things I do is design and install holiday decor for some of SF's largest businesses and building management companies.

The orders have been crawling in -- nothing like I have seen the past 14+ years I have been doing this. And what we have been getting are orders reduced in quantities from prior years.

One international law firm just called in their holiday order -- they went from 14 large wreaths, multiple poinsettia arrangements, and a large tree (the same order for 10+ years) to one wreath and one poinstettia for their main reception.

ONE WREATH AND ONE POINSETTIA.

A friend is a floral designer who does pieces for corporate/business lobbies -- he has lost three clients in the last month, and most of his remaining clients have cancelled their big holiday arrangements. Being in SF, we are supposedly in a market area that is not going to be hit as hard as much of the US, so this is extra scary thinking about what is going on everywhere else.

Interior plant maintenance programs, floral designers, holiday designers -- these are all businesses that are some of the very first to see just how bad things are going in an economy.

And, from what I and others in those industries are seeing, 2009 looks like it is not going to be a happy time. :(

[tblue]

1. Wow. Sorry about your business.

I hope you have something you can fall back on.

I know I, for one, am not buying anything that's not absolutely necessary or severely, severely marked down. And I used to bargain shop just for entertainment. Not anymore.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

14. Thankfully I have my hands in many pies.

Sadly, others don't. :(

I think what has surprised me is many of the clients that are cutting back are ones in usually stable businesses -- I long ago lost investment/securities clients -- those were the first to pull back, even before the current crisis -- it is the businesses like the law firms (normally very dependable) -- Heller was a client that just went out of business, out of the blue.

I am in the same boat you are -- if I don't eat it or wear it, I am not buying it.

Good luck to us! :hi:

[panader0]

2. How I know: I'm out of work (construction)

Everyone I know around here is too. The local building supplier had 8 yardmen, now 1. Everyone is being laid off. As a business owner, I cannot draw unemployment. I need to grow a garden, but will have to wait until the crops come in. I've been here for 30 years, and this is THE worst.

[tekisui]

6. My brother just found out he'll be laid off in two weeks.

I am self-employed, and one of my clients told me yesterday that they are going to cut back from bi-weekly to quarterly next year.

It's going around.

[rvablue]

9. Out of curiousity what kind of Business/Industry do you work in? n/t

[tekisui]

21. Landscaping/Gardening.

My brother is landscaping, too. They have been hit harder. People aren't wanting to do new projects in their yard. As a gardener, I do yearround maintenance, it is worked into people's budgets, and not as much of a "special project". I am not too worried about my situation. But, it is slowing down.

[nonconformist]

31. I think a landscaper we've used from time to time is having a rough go at it, too

We live on a ginormous hill, so we hire workers occasionally to mow/weed. We asked the company for a quote awhile back to remove some dying bushes from our property and replant new bushes, and the quote came back much higher than we expected and considering we're kind of strapped too, we passed. Since then, they've stopped by numerous times, knocking quite a bit off the price of the original quote (still out of our range, though) and offering to do other projects that we actually need done but just can't afford right now. It's obvious they're desperate for work... I feel bad that I can't give them any.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

17. Self-employed people seem to alwys be right on the bubble --

and any type of downturn seems to hit the hardest. Sorry to hear about your brother and your cutback. :(

[Hell Hath No Fury]

16. Construction is taking a serious hit.

It seemed like construction and real estate were the sole things keeping our economy gong for so long. I can't imagine what it is going to be like for you guys for the next few years while this thing shakes out. :(

[fla nocount]

37. Commercial Superintendent...

I've been unemployed since March, lots of projects on the books but none funded. Single Dad with too much house and the banks won't get off the money stolen from the tax payers. I work under the table at two jobs, pastry chef and line cook for dead restaurants. I've gone from $1300 a week to $550, I'm not keeping up and have had to spot both employers a favor or two.

Based on the decisions made in the two weeks since the election I have no faith that the incoming administration will turn the world on it's ear either.

Thinking about becoming the "honest handyman" as lots of older folks (I'm 58) will always need things done.

[endarkenment]

3. Holiday parties are getting cancelled.

I think we just fell off a cliff. How deep a cliff is hard to tell as its real dark outside.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

18. Yup --

I don't think we fully comprehend how big this thing is. I think a lot lately about my Nans and Granpa, who both survived the Great Depression. I wish they were around to talk to about what they saw/experienced -- and how they managed.

[dixiegrrrrl]

24. Our grandparents wisdom can be found, however.

I did an all day Google traipse through The Great Depression and found many informative sites.

A key ingredient seems to be beans, rice and flour.
I can't eat flour. ( celiac)
So there goes most of the
feeling full" foods.

We are doing barter here already. Trading deck repair for a load of wood, trading 2 trips to Dr. for an older working computer monitor, that sorta thing.

I guarantee you that taverns will do well..they always do.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

28. I remember my Nana...

still canned and preserved, ground her own meat, and saved string, aluminum foil, and brown wrapper paper! :D I also have vivid memories of her using a spatula to get every last smear of mayo or peanut butter out of a jar -- I mean she worked that jar until it was clear as a bell! It was if the depresson era thinking never left her.


I should start looking at local barter sites -- I think that is something many of us will be doing from here on in. :hi:

[dana_b]

41. our holiday party is collecting canned goods

and donating time at a food bank. Not kidding.

[RainDog]

4. I'm sorry to hear the bad news

but thank you for sharing your experience. Yes, you're definitely on the front line of recession indications.

I'm no expert, but I thought the housing mess had hit most cities in CA. Not S.F.? I know it's a thriving city, but I thought housing prices were a problem - as far as getting mtgs, etc. I'm not in the area, tho, that's just what I'd assumed.

I really wonder how we're all going to get on the other side of this current mess.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

20. The housng mess...

in CA tends to be hitting in suburban areas that were wildly overbuilt by developers.

Here in SF, housing is at a premium due to limited stock, business is (was?) fairly strong, and the guys supposedly in the know have said we will weather the worst of it fairly well.

What has me spooked is the normally solid/recession proof kinds of businesses that I am seeing decline. That freaks me out a bit. :scared:

[proud patriot]

5. Yep . it's bad

:hug: our biz dried up . it took eight years
but my husband is now selling cars :cry: LOL..

My job could be on the chopping block too .
School budget cuts loom large for our district .

:hug: I want to have a holiday gathering with
DUers . I'm just in the planing process .

Low key , my place , food , refreshments & talk .

:hi: I miss you

Trish

[Hell Hath No Fury]

22. Holy smokes!

The body repair biz your hub was doing??? Damn! I am so sorry to hear that! And the budget shit on top of it all. :cry: We are sooo fucked right now.

Yes, yes, yes to a get together!! It has been way too long -- how about an inauguration party?? It would be a nice completion of the Presidential circle from Bush. :D

XOXOX!
:hug:

[proud patriot]

35. sounds great

I'll post something in the california forum eventually .

[gcomeau]

7. I know it's bad...

...due to the 800 people we laid off at my company yesterday. It was a bit of a clue. Half my department got wiped out, we don't have enough people left to staff half the projects we're supposed to be working on.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

23. Wow.

Unbelieveable. I don't know how the market/country is going to be able to absorb all those who are being laid off -- there is just no way. :cry:

[rvablue]

26. Do you happen to work at Boeing? Heard about 800 laid off there.

What industry/business do you work in that they laid off 800???????

[gcomeau]

39. Semiconductor... -nt

[gizmo1979]

8. I can tell it's bad by the

weekly layoffs and 32 hrs we've had for the last month.I'm hanging on by a thread.

[wolfgangmo]

10. Medical clinic

Our patient bookings are off about 20 - 25 %. And we are fortunate because we are in part a pain clinic with a focus in natural health which means that people who come to us tend to be pretty desperate already . We are also noticing that people are not booking appointments ahead of time and waiting until the last moment to see if they can be fitted into the schedule.

If we are being effected then I shudder to think about everyone else.

Good luck everyone. And remember that we are stronger together than we are separate. Check on your neighbors and make sure they are OK. Plan neighborhood potlucks. Plant community gardens. Lend and borrow tools. It's time to stand together.

[rvablue]

11. Kick....it's very informative reading these firsthand stories.

And sorry that people are going through this and hope it turns around soon :)

[kimmerspixelated]

12. Some of what is happening is perceived

info from the constant news of the bad economy. Yes, it is bad, I know. My hubby just got a job after being off since mid-August. However, people are just learning to cut back because they are afraid what will be next. They might have the extra wreath money, but they just might see it as extra fluff right now, when all they ever HEAR about is economical terror,terra,terra! Please, don't flame! IT IS BAD, but how much of it is just from listening to the news.. domino effect?

[rvablue]

27. You might be right and I hope you are

But even if people cut back it will have a rippling effect.

Then again, when you go into one of these big box stores like Target, at least 30% of the products they sell, if not more, are completely unnecessary for every day life.....

[kimmerspixelated]

40. True, but it still looked like they were doing

a pretty good business, which with everything, seemed odd to me.

[Missy Vixen]

13. I'm so sorry to read this

My husband was laid off last Friday. I am with the person who posted down below that they're even laying off people who do critical job tasks for the business in question. My husband installed and implemented the software package his ex-company sold. There is nobody else in the US that has the ability to do it. Even scarier, we lost our insurance. I know there are lots here without it, too. The medications my husband needs are BIG bucks, and he can't go without.

We live in another area of the country that thought it might ride this out without problems. Uh, no. Housing prices dropped more precipitously last month in Western Washington than anywhere else in the country. We're dealing with the failure of WaMu, the boating industry, Boeing just announced more layoffs, it's hitting everyone and hard.

I was amazed to hear "we'll help you" commercials from Chase mortgage this morning on the radio. In other words, it's more profitable for them to keep people in their houses, perhaps. We'll see.

I am wondering to myself what's going to happen, because President-Elect Obama will have a mess on his hands. Hopefully, we can all hang on till January.

Julie

[leftofthedial]

15. where have all the flowers gone...

:-(

[Hell Hath No Fury]

25. They're too expensive these days!

Flowers are a luxury.

[pokercat999]

19. I work for a huge tire distributor, our center laid off four employees

last week, two office/management and two warehouse labor out of about fifteen local employees. We have 60 distribution centers nationwide and all have had the same reduction in forces. As a salesman in the equipment division I felt safe but got an email two days ago stating if you were not at 60% to goal come years end, you should look for another job. I'm already over 80% for my year so I'm ok but the last two months have been the worst. I do have pre-sold 25% of next years budget and am just waiting for construction to be finished before shipping. At least 5 of my coworkers (other regional salespeople) out of seventy have quit within the last couple of months due to falling sales and reduced commissions.

My wife is a software consultant and was told today that they would not be getting their annual bonus and may face some near future layoffs.

IMHO, It's going to get much worse before it gets better. I look for a total collapse early next year unless President Obama preforms some kind of economic miracle the day after he takes office.

I hope he nationalizes several industries including energy companies of all kinds, home, car and health insurance and starts massive public works projects. Look for high inflation later in 2009 as we continue to print more and more money and the foreign banks refuse our credit.

Just my layman's guess and this is one time I hope I'm totally wrong.

[FirstLight]

29. Yep, mee too...losing hours & money like crazy, not much left

I work for my church, and the money here is so bad that my job is getting cut to 10 hours a week starting in january. that's about 1/2 the hours and income for me...

My business is freelance work for a local LCSW/minister too, and she cut the hours down to under 8 a week... i am trying to find something to fill the coffers for christmas, but meanwhile I am thinking we'll be eating alot of macNcheeze too...

...as a single mom of 3 with chronic health problems, etc...i am really glad that sec * housing is still working for us or we'd be living in our car!!!

[Candie Date]

30. Ramen noodles

Are .79cents now instead of .33 cents

That's how I know.

[dixiegrrrrl]

32. Oh god I hate to tell you this about Ramen..

rumors all over...melamine.
Cup O Noodles too..all that dried milk powder and flour.
I hope it is not true, but I would worry about eating until I knew.

[Candie Date]

33. I don't eat'em

I just noticed they're not 33 cents anymore

[Blue Diadem]

34. My husband found out yesterday that they are eliminating an entire shift where he works.

He thinks he'll be ok and will be put on another shift if they go by seniority, but official word of who is getting laid off hasn't been given yet. If they go strictly by the shift getting eliminated, then he'll be without a job as of Friday. If they go by seniority, his job will be saved probably for a while. If there are more lay offs, he'll be first to go.

This place is a non-automotive manufacturer and we really didn't expect that much of a cutback this soon.

[Neshanic]

36. Architecture/Landscape architect firms are being decimated here.

[KoKo]

38. Thank you for this post and all the replies here....

What we are going through needs to be reported. Thanks! :hi:

I remember you from way back...haven't seen you around enough.

KICK!