Franken Camp's Claim: We've Cut Coleman's Lead To Under 100 Votes

[Fuzz]

Has Al Franken cut Norm Coleman's lead down to double digits? That's what the Franken campaign just claimed in a briefing with reporters.

The current estimates from the Star Tribune have Coleman up by about 130 votes, but the Franken campaigns claims the true difference is much less than that when you take into account disputed ballots that aren't included right now in the totals but are likely to be resolved pretty easily by the state canvassing board.

Even if a challenged ballot is taken out of the total recount pool for the time being, the Franken campaign thinks it has an idea of what the numbers will eventually look like based on the opinions of the election workers at the individual sites -- and they think the real Coleman lead right now is less than 100 votes, instead of the current common estimate of over 130.

Franken's lead recount lawyer Marc Elias also pointed out that with 51.1% of the ballots recounted so far, the portion that has been counted were from disproportionately Republican areas -- so the remaining votes could end up having even more error-corrections that boost Franken than we've seen already.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/franken_camps_claim_weve_cut_c.php

[BootinUp]

1. I wouldn't bet on any particular outcome

looks like pretty close to 50/50 chance for both sides.

[Fuzz]

2. Agreed

[Ganja Ninja]

3. Go Al!

:kick:

[MineralMan]

4. This is going to be a nail-biter,

right down to the end. Then, it will probably go to the courts. I can't watch the results...makes me too anxious.

[MineralMan]

5. One other thing...

In the precinct where I voted, and I hung around for a while after voting, a lot of the first-time voters were voting for Obama and for nothing else. They'd go into the booth and be back out in 10 seconds.

These were the ones who were registering at the polls and voting. They had one thing in mind, and that was to vote for Obama.

I talked to one group of women in the parking lot, and asked them if they had voted in all the races. They all said they only voted for Obama.

This was, in part, a failure on the part of the Franken campaign to reach out and tell potential first-time voters that his race was equally important. The campaign called my house at least 20 times, even though I had caucused for Franken at the precint and state senate levels. I had donated, as well, so they were calling to get more money.

Some of that effort could have been used to get more votes, rather than to plead for more money, I think.

[burythehatchet]

6. That's a good point. Coleman is probably challenging everything he can to delay the

inevitable.

[stevedeshazer]

7. Anyone know what happens if it ends in a tie?

Could happen!

[gristy]

8. "they think the real Coleman lead right now is less than 100 votes"

fewer than 100 votes

but that's just me :(