Nate Silver Predicts Franken to Win over Coleman in MN

[PolyD]

Source: FiveThirtyEight.com

Sunday, November 23, 2008
Projection: Franken to Win Recount by 27 Votes
As we wrote yesterday evening, the ever-increasing number of challenged ballots in Minnesota is making it more and more difficult to determine the extent to which Al Franken is in fact gaining ground in the state's recount process. An analysis of precinct-by-precinct returns available on the Secretary of State's website, however, suggests that Franken's position is somewhat stronger than it appears, and that he may in fact be the favorite to prevail in the recount process.

Consider the following. In precincts where no challenges have been issued (these are the only precincts in which, in some sense, the results of the recount can be considered to be final and "official") Franken has gained a total of 34 votes, and Coleman a total of 6 votes, for a net gain by Franken of 28 votes. Moreover, in precincts where just 1 challenge has been issued, Franken has gained a net of 31 votes on Coleman, and in precincts where exactly 2 challenges have been issued, Franken has gained a net of 32 votes on Coleman.

By contrast, in precincts where 5 or more ballots have been challenged between the two campaigns, Coleman has gained a net of 57 votes on Franken.

In other words, the fewer the number of challenged ballots, the better Franken is doing, and the higher the number of challenged ballots, the worse he is doing; the relationship is in fact quite strong.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/projection-franken-to-win-recount-by-27.html


Read more: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/projection-franken-to-win-recount-by-27.html

[babylonsister]

1. That would be so sweet! And Nate's pretty good at this predicting stuff. nt

[merwin]

7. Zogby hates Nate Silver.

So that means that Nate must be right :)

[babylonsister]

10. The young whippersnapper stole his thunder! nt

[Kingofalldems]

2. It would be extra cool if Franken wins by one vote

Make the repubs even madder and "Get Over It' would be our mantra.

[GreenPartyVoter]

3. ooh! From Nate's lips to whomever's mouth!

[CatholicEdHead]

4. Only time will tell

I am holding off until it is official.

[progressoid]

5. Yep - me too. Wait and see.

[LynneSin]

6. Me too - if Franken is ahead by 27 votes you know Coleman will challenge it

and it ain't over til it's over.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

8. This is so nerve-wracking! I hope Franken wins! nt

[breadandwine]

11. I'm not convinced that Nate is considering this properly.

He is making a judgement based on the raw fact that where Coleman is challenging a lot he is gaining but where he is not challenging a lot Franken is gaining. He is not considering the particulars of the individual districts, like the fact that some may be heavily Republican and some may be heavily Democratic. That could affect the final results more.

Then consider that the GOP has a nasty habit of making brazen moves in elections, these votes don't count, those people aren't allowed to vote, etc., and it's all preposterous and yet they often get it to stick. Coleman is making challenges for a reason even if to us they seem frivolous. Possibly he expects to appeal the results in the end to a GOP-appointed judge who will decide his challenges have merits regardless of the facts of the case. (Sound familiar?) Coleman doesn't HAVE to have a leg to stand on with his challenges. All he needs is a judge to rubber stamp his challenges and he's home free. Coleman's real plan may be to rig the choice of which judge will decide the case in the end. He may have friends in high places we don't know about, who will ensure he gets the right judge.

The reason GOP election cheating works is that they have had so much experience doing it.

They're experts.

There are also lots of ways of abusing statistics. For instance, did you know that when more people eat ice cream in New York, more people die in Calcutta? It's true!! THOSE NEW YORKERS BETTER STOP EATING ICE CREAM! THEY'RE OBVIOUSLY CAUSING ILL HEALTH IN CALCUTTA!!

But actually, all it means is that New York and Calcutta are both in the Northern Hemisphere and have vaguely analogous climates. When it is hot in New York people eat more ice cream and at the same time it is generally hot, hotter in fact, in Calcutta, and with the lower health and living standards there, less air conditioning etc., more people die in Calcutta during heat waves. This does NOT mean that increased ice cream consumption in New York is causing more people to die in Calcutta.

Another example of abuse of statistics involves foods that seem to improve health. These observations are usually accurate. But not always. If people who eat more of a certain food have a lower incidence of cancer that may imply health benefits from that food. But it could also be a cultural or economic thing, that the people eating that food tend to have a higher standard of living. Having a higher standard of living they might live in healthier and better maintained housing and THAT could be the real reason they have a lower incidence of cancer, not the choice of that food.

In statistics cause and effect can be tricky.

So I'm worried that Nate is seeing more into patterns than is really there.

[happygoluckytoyou]

9. IS HIS NAME REALLY COLEMAN? ? ? we just want to know---> -->

Oh yes... Coldeman. The "d" is silent in America. It's Cole D'Isle au Man, or Cole of the Isle of Man, in France, where Armand's chateau is, Cold-e-man in Greece where Armand's work is, and finally the vulgar Coleman in Florida where Armand's home is, so actually, we don't know where we are until we hear our last name pronounced! Ahahahahahahaaaaa!