of what is suggested in your OP depends greatly on what people believe the Obama administration "promised" as relates to Iraq. If folks believe that Obama plans to end the illegal US occupation of Iraq I'd say they are in for a disappointment. He has never said such a thing to my knowledge. It seems more likely that what will occur is a drawdown of "combat" brigades and a friendlier face to the occupation or at least a less visible one.
I wonder if Negroponte will still be hangin' out in the Green Zone.
On Iraq, Obama said nothing especially new in his July 14 New York Times op-ed piece and his foreign policy speech in Washington today. In both, he forcefully restated his commitment to combat troop withdrawals after his recent statements suggesting that he would "refine" his views when he consults military commanders on the ground.
He neglected to address how many American "residual forces" he would leave behind in Iraq to fight Al Qaeda and "protect American service members," though he made additional US trainers conditional on the Iraqis making "political progress." It is a proposal that seems to promise a phased diminishing of the American military presence, not a complete withdrawal.Many independent analysts question the wisdom of leaving some 50,000 American troops as advisers, trainers and counter-terrorism units in Iraq after the withdrawal of 140,000 by 2010. Those forces would be protecting a sectarian political regime that is linked to death squads, militias and a detention system now holding 50,000 Iraqis in violation of human rights standards.
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http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080721/hayden3Here's what is listed at Obama's website:
http://www.barackobama.com/issues/iraq/It's all rather vague at the moment.
And finally:
OBAMA RECORD
Refuses to Pledge to Get Our Troops Out by 2013, the End Of His First Term
RUSSERT: "Will you pledge that by January 2013, the end of your first term, more than five years from now, there will be no U.S. troops in Iraq?"
OBAMA: "I think it's hard to project four years from now, and I think it would be irresponsible. We don't know what contingency will be out there.
What I can promise is that if there are still troops in Iraq when I take office -- which it appears there may be, unless we can get some of our Republican colleagues to change their mind and cut off funding without a timetable -- if there's no timetable -- then I will drastically reduce our presence there to the mission of protecting our embassy, protecting our civilians, and making sure that we're carrying out counterterrorism activities there. I believe that we should have all our troops out by 2013, but I don't want to make promises, not knowing what the situation's going to be three or four years out."
-- From 9/26 DNC Debate at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire.
Would Leave a Residual Force of Up to 60,000 troops in Iraq
"My plan for ending the war would turn the page in Iraq by removing our combat troops from Iraq's civil war."
-- Speech in Clinton, Iowa 9/12/2007.
Under the Obama plan, American troops may remain in Iraq or the region. These American troops will protect American diplomatic and military personnel in Iraq, and continue striking at al Qaeda in Iraq. If Iraq makes political progress and their security forces are not sectarian, we would also continue training othe
Iraqi Security Forces.
-- Barack Obama: Turning the Page in Iraq. BarackObama.com
The Center for American Progress estimates that such an undertaking in Iraq would require a force of around 60,000 troops.
-- "Strategic Redeployment 2.0: A Progressive Strategy for Iraq." The Center for American Progress. By Lawrence Korb and Brian Katulis. May 2006.
Claims to Want to End War, but Votes for Half Measures
Senator Obama has again and again advocated ending the war in Iraq, but has settled for half measures, including an amendment proposed by Senator Carl Levin (D-MI) that, by Senator Levin's own admission, would only, "cut troop levels in Iraq by more than half."
-- From "Senate Blocks Bill on Combat Tours." Associated Press. By Anne Flaherty. 19 September 2007.
http://action.richardsonforpresident.com/page/content/2013/obamarecord/