Look what is happening in the Franken Race

[wellstone dem]

http://ww2.startribune.com/news/metro/elections/returns/2008/recount/msenco.html

Coleman is up by 188 votes (down from 215) in the counties that have been recounted, and assuming no change in precincts not recounted. That's not the big deal.

The challenges are what is interesting

Coleman 1211
Franken 1078

difference is 133.

Assuming the challenges break about evenly for both sides, if you subtract---188-133, the difference is about 55 votes. (Using that same formula the difference this morning was about 140 votes.)

70 % of votes counted

[Tangerine LaBamba]

1. This is cruel and unusual punishment

I'm pulling for Franken, but both of them must be out of their minds by now.

I know it's starting to get to me, and I don't even live there!

[efhmc]

2. Franken has never been ahead, right?

[wellstone dem]

3. That is right. nt

[wellstone dem]

4. Updated

Coleman is up by 199 votes (down from 215)

Coleman 1240
Franken 1091

difference is 149.

Assuming the challenges break about evenly for both sides, if you subtract---199-149, the difference is about 50 votes.

70 % of votes counted

[OregonBlue]

5. Many of the Coleman challenges are very frivolous per ballots posted on Friday.

We don't need to worry yet.

[wellstone dem]

6. I'm not worried, actually after todays results with the increase in challenges

I'm more optimistic.

There are frivolous challenges on both sides. I'll come back and add links.

Both parties are making very questionable challenges. examples from both parties below

http://blogs.twincities.com/politics/2008/11/want_to_se...
http://blogs.twincities.com/politics/2008/11/want_to_se...

http://www.sctimes.com/article/20081124/NEWS01/111240055

"Schreifels called the challenges “frivolous” in the news release and said most of them came from one challenger affiliated with Democrat Al Franken’s campaign.

One ballot was challenged because the oval wasn’t completely blackened, and another because there was a small mark elsewhere on the ballot that was not near the U.S. Senate race, Schreifels said.

On Friday, there were 15 challenges, most of which were also frivolous, he said....

When the Franken campaign challenges a ballot, the campaign of U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn., counters with an additional frivolous charge to balance things out, Schreifels said."






So I'm assuming the challenges will break about even. Which brings us very close--50 votes--Which means the valid challenges could easily decide this. Or, if Franken gets at least a partial victory on the absentee ballot issue, that might decide it too.

[ORDagnabbit]

7. there was a great vid on daily kos showing challenges by coleman where mcain/franken were chosen and

coleman is argueing the voter would not vote mccain then vote franken.


lost arguement when time after time you see ovals completely filled in for Franken.

[GoesTo11]

8. Your numbers project to a Franken win.

Gained 149 in the first 70%, at the same rate, Franken would gain 30%/70% x 149 = 64 in the last 30%. Down by 50 now, Franken wins by 14!

[wellstone dem]

9. but look at this! 61 ballots found in pro-coleman county--not sure who they were for

http://minnesotaindependent.com/18487/sixty-one-ballots-turn-up-in-becker-county-four-others-go-missing

When Becker County started its recount Monday morning, it had 61 more ballots on hand than recorded by the end of Election Night, 53 of which came from mail-in precincts and eight of which were absentee ballots. While Sen. Norm Coleman led in Becker County by 2,400 votes in the original count, these 61 ballots could have a big impact on a race that now has Coleman leading Al Franken by just 185 votes (according to the Star Tribune). Election officials say the ballots “were overlooked and not transferred to the counting area on election night,” but “they did arrive at the county courthouse by 8 p.m.,” according to D-L Online. Recount officials have been instructed by the Becker County Attorney’s and the Minnesota Secretary of State’s offices to count the 61 ballots, although they’ve been segregated in case legal challenges should arise. Additionally, the Detroit Lakes paper reports that four other ballots have apparently gone missing from Holmesville Township. They were tallied after polls closed, but the ballots — three for Coleman and one for Franken — are nowhere to be found.

[GoesTo11]

10. No worries

Even with those 61, if they play out like the rest of Becker County, Coleman would get 36, Franken 25, and Franken wins by 3 votes!

[wellstone dem]

11. thank you!

I will now chill out.