When did you pretty much know in your heart that Obama was going to win?

[NNN0LHI]

For me it was the day some NASCAR loving, gun nut who I considered a war mongering racist relative got me to the side about two month before the election and whispered, "Don't tell no one Don, (meaning his parents), but I am voting for Obama." I just about passed out. But I knew what was up right then and there.

Don

[notadmblnd]

1. When he spoke at the 2004 Democratic Convention

[maxsolomon]

4. when mccain suspended his campaign & obama laughed at him

at that point i started assuring all the nervous nellies i know.

[Richard D]

11. Me too.

[Obamanaut]

41. My wife told me then that "we" like him! nt

[Deep13]

2. Never. I simply calculated that it was likely two weeks ahead of time.

When Ohio was called, I knew we had won. I never really knew on an emotional level.

[EOTE]

24. It was when Pennsylvania was called for me.

I was convinced weeks before then that if there was a legitimate and fairly fraud-free election that Obama would win handily. However, I was nowhere near sure that the election would be anywhere near fraud-free. I was really expecting there to be a good amount of shenanigans in Pennsylvania. When PA was called for Obama, I knew it was going to be a very good night. Of course, by then, even Virginia was looking pretty promising.

[tabbycat31]

27. I was confident about PA

I spent most of election day (I voted at 7:30 AM) there doing a GOTV effort with the Bus for Change, and I was very confident once I was there that a huge population of PA (the African Americans in Philly and the Philly suburbs) had been mobilized, and by the time we got to the neighborhoods by 10, everyone (who was eligible) had already voted.

[EOTE]

36. I had no doubt that more Pennsylvanians would vote for Obama.

In fact, I was pretty sure that it wouldn't have even been close. However, what worried me was that in spite of the large Obama lead in PA shown by pretty much every poll I looked at, the McCain campaign was still insistent that they could win PA and that they intended to continue pouring money into the state. On top of that, I heard from a fair amount of other DUers who said that they didn't believe that Obama would carry the state in spite of his large lead. With all this, I had become convinced that the McCain campaign would do their damnedest to steal Pennsylvania like Ohio and Florida had been stolen in 2004 and Florida had been stolen in 2000. I was fairly confident by the time I started hearing results from Va. and NC that the election was going to go very well, but it wasn't until I heard Pennsylvania called that I could really start celebrating. At that point, my girlfriend asked me what I thought the chances of McCain still winning would be. I told her that it was less than 1% at that point. Minutes later, Ohio was called. She asked me again after that. I then asked her in return if it was possible to have less than a 0% chance :shrug:

[leftynyc]

42. Same here

It was Ohio that convinced me it was going to happen. I had been so disappointed in 2000 and 2004, I just couldn't let myself believe. Still brings tears to my eyes to think this wonderful man is going to be the President.

[Veritas_et_Aequitas]

3. After watching the RNC.

Same old talking points, the collective grasping at straws. I knew McCain wouldn't cut it.

[EFerrari]

5. I thought whoever got the nomination would win. So, when he got the nom. n/t

[Qanisqineq]

13. I agree

I was never worried. Seriously. I just assumed he would win after he got the nomination. He wasn't my candidate during the primaries but even then I thought if he got the nomination he would win.

[blm]

25. Yep - shortly after Katrina and it was OBVIOUS by November 2006. The Dem NOMINEE would win and

Congressional Dems were set to pick up even more seats in 2008.

[Bicoastal]

6. I knew when McCain appeared on SNL the weekend before the election...

...instead of spending the evening campaigning. He was clearly enjoying himself, but more importantly, he was already growing comfortable with playing the role of a Presidential also-ran. Funny, it took Al Gore years to do that.

[tabbycat31]

7. when they called Ohio

on election night. I knew then it was a matter of waiting for the west coast polls to close.

[bunkerbuster1]

9. Me too

even though I remained publicly confident that Obama had a great ground game, I had the same election night jitters I had for Clinton in '92 and '96.

I pretty much assume that the Democrat is going to screw things up somehow. Wonder where I got that idea?

[pnwmom]

17. Yup. n/t

[eleny]

19. That was the moment

[SallyMander]

28. Absolutely -- I live in Ohio

worked my butt off for Kerry in '04 and had my heart broken. When they called Ohio blue this year i just *bawled*! I knew i'd cry, but i didn't think i'd be a weepy disaster. But it was at that moment that i knew we'd done it!!!

[AndyA]

8. When Keith Olbermann said that Obama had just won Ohio, I knew it was over.

Before that, I was still afraid that the Republicans would try to steal another election. I think it's the only way they know how to do it, now.

McCain's campaign was a mess, from start to finish. And Palin as VP? A train wreck looking for a place to happen!

[MissMillie]

16. me too

when Ohio went blue, I figured it was a done deal.

[bunkerbuster1]

10. Ok, in my heart?

Like, when was I more than 50.001% confident in his chances? Probably mid-summer, when I started reading fivethirtyeight.com and looking at the state-by-state races. I thought Obama would probably hang on and win no matter what the GOP threw at him.

There was no one light-bulb moment for me as there was for you.

[DS1]

12. There was so much wrong with McCain winning

I wouldn't be surprised to learn after I die that God himself had a hand in it, and I'm no religious type.

[norepubsin08]

14. I had the feeling since late 2005-Nov 2006

that a democratic candidate would win...I pretty well figured it out when in the first week of October Palin had her debate with Biden, Couric interview happened, McCain got caught in NYC by Letterman, McCain suspended his campaign and said he might not debate. It was a done deal when they called Ohio for Obama.

[tularetom]

15. From the time he gave his acceptance speech at the convention in Denver

And I was positive of it after the first debate. Never a doubt after that.

[Lex]

18. When MSNBC called Pennsylvania for Obama on Election Night.

Before that, I wasn't sure that the racists and the Bush ignoramus-voters weren't going to succeed in putting McCain in.

[racaulk]

20. When McCain picked Palin as his running mate.

I knew immediately that his pick was very rushed and reactionary, which are not good judgment skills that we need in any leader. I also felt that, in time, the public would see that as well. That was when my heart first skipped a beat that Obama could actually pull it off.

After the novelty of Sarah Palin wore off, her star started to fade, the bounce she gave McCain's campaign disappeared, and she became a national joke (thanks again, Tina Fey!), McCain began running a more desperate and disgusting campaign. Watching all of his Rovian tricks backfire over the last couple of months of the GE helped me believe even more that Obama's chances for victory were good.

However, I still remained cautious until election night. When Ohio was called for Obama, and that gave him 295 electoral votes, I knew that it was next to impossible for McCain to win. It was just a matter of waiting until 11:00pm EST for the Pacific Coast states' polls to close to make it official. But even after Ohio was called, I still had a little nagging doubt that I couldn't shake.

It wasn't until after McCain gave his concession speech that I FINALLY heaved a sigh of relief and knew that it was really over. Obama had won.

So, in my heart I knew Obama would win when McCain picked Palin. But my damned MIND wouldn't allow me to believe it until late in the night on November 4.

[gollygee]

35. Yep, that was the point for me, too

They thought they were going to get "the woman vote" with HER? Nope. I immediately thought, "Ok they've got the psycho base now, but the moderates will all jump ship."

[electron_blue]

21. When I saw the huge crowd shots in St. Louis shortly before the election.

[crispini]

22. Dang! Great story.

I had a sneaking suspicion as the polls the three weeks before the election stayed steady, but I tried to stay calm. All of my friends and family are Democrats, so I don't have much of a gauge for "the populace" myself.

[shireen]

23. i would not allow myself to go there ...

Four years ago, I was convinced, absolutely confident, that Kerry was going to win. The day after that election was filled with overwhelming disappointment, dread, and disbelief. It was a horrible feeling, and I could not bear to go through it again. At some level, I knew Obama was going to win after about a month or so before Hillary conceded, but would not allow myself to dwell on those thoughts. I guess I was just trying to protect myself from another deep disappointment.

[soleft]

26. When he made his trip overseas and Mccain spoke at a sausage house

[Agent William]

29. When KO called the election for him on November 4

Anything sooner is just wishful thinking given the the ruthlessness of the republican party.

[Vinca]

30. When McCain gave his concession speech.

I was completely stunned the election wasn't stolen again.

[Lyric]

31. I never doubted it.

I was absolutely sure that our nominee was going to win this time around no matter who we picked. I wasn't the least bit nervous about the election on Election Night--I was nervous about the Prop 8 vote. And for good reason, sadly. *sigh*

[AndrewP]

32. When CNN announced that he was the winner

I did not trust that fucking right wing machine for a second to not try to pull something like they did in 2000 with Bozo the Bush.

[Initech]

38. Same here.

I was on the edge of my seat the whole night because I thought that the reich-wing was going to pull the same stupid shit they did in 2000 and 2004. Once they called Ohio and Florida for Obama I pretty much knew it was over.

[Alter Ego]

33. When they called Ohio.

I popped the cork then--before that, I was all Toby Ziegler with my "Do you want to tempt the wrath of the whatever from someplace?"

[leftynyc]

44. I used that line for weeks

"Do you want to tempt the whatever from high atop the thing?"

[Alter Ego]

47. Plus I did my best Jackal impression while Obama was giving his victory speech.

[leftynyc]

48. Oh - I had forgotten about that

C.J. was my favorite character on that show and was played by a really fine actress. I miss that show.

[PassingFair]

34. 11:00 pm Tuesday, Nov. 4

I still don't believe it!

[rasputin5]

37. The morning of Nov 5. I was (irrationally?) pessimistic until then.

:-)
I just kept remembering - before I fell asleep Tue evening - how I knew without any doubt back in 2000 that Dubya would never "win."
:shrug:

[AlCzervik]

39. Florida, even it that was worth no electoral votes it would have been a great symbolic victory.

welcome back Florida.

[TheKentuckian]

40. I felt like we were on course when Obama fought back on the lipstick on a pig

flap.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

43. Super Tuesday.

:thumbsup:

[ACTION BASTARD]

45. 1. When the only (R)at work told me he was staying home on election day

2. When my other co-worker told me we won Fl. I said, "We fucking got this." My jobsite exploded with joy around 11:05.

[applegrove]

46. When the networks called it. Until then I thought things still could go wrong. Actually for the last

few months I've been quite the pessimist. Usually I am naive and optimistic. Finally I become a pessimist. Now I have to learn to trust again. Trust that things will go right. Obama winning was part of that.