AP: Black Friday could be black for another reason

[Amerigo Vespucci]

Black Friday could be black for another reason

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j8-4jBYzKFvUOh2vNVU_aOvFYJjAD94MTJRO1

NEW YORK (AP) — Black Friday — which falls on the day after Thanksgiving and officially starts the holiday shopping period — received its name because it historically was the day when a surge of shoppers helped stores break into profitability for the full year.

But this year, with rampant promotions of up to 70 percent throughout the month amid a deteriorating economy, the power of this landmark day for the retail industry is fading.

This year, Black Friday might also mark the beginning of the end for a growing number of struggling retailers who could file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after the holidays if they don't make their sales and profit goals.

Black Friday is still expected to bring in a surge of shoppers, and some analysts predict it will be the biggest day of the year, following last year's pattern. However some Wall Street pundits and even store executives acknowledge that the sales could be lower than last year as Americans just don't have the money to splurge. The traditional lull between the Thanksgiving weekend and the week before Christmas could be even slower this year than in years past, they say.

Thanksgiving weekend may be the official start of the holiday shopping season, but it doesn't necessarily provide a complete forecast of holiday sales. The weekend accounts for about 10 percent of sales during the holiday shopping period.

Wall Street analysts will be dissecting data this weekend on how the economy is affecting consumer behavior. Will families be focusing only on their children? Will shoppers only buy small-ticket items and not make big purchases, such as flat-panel TVs? And how much will they reduce their spending from a year ago?

[stevedeshazer]

1. I worked in middle management for catalog companies for years.

They're screwed. Retail is screwed.

It's gonna be a very bad year.

[Amerigo Vespucci]

2. I've never had so many discount offers in my In Box...

Barnes & Nobel sent out their periodic 20% off coupon, which I do use because I'm a voracious reader. But I was surprised a few days later to get a new 20%, 30%, 40% off offer. Omaha Steaks is wooing me. Sales guru Brian Tracy wants to give me 20% off on his books and CDs. Sur La Table, on and on and on.

And as Muddy Waters once sang, "You can't spend what you ain't got."

Love the coupons, but 20% off a purchase I can;t afford to make equals "no sale."

:toast:

[Taverner]

3. Yes they are fucked

But if you are a consumer at this point - there are deals to be had

[ben_meyers]

4. But now, or at the bankruptcy liquidation sales?

That's the danger of deflation, consumers delaying buying even longer because of falling prices. Would you buy a house now or wait for the 15 to 25% additional drop that some are forecasting?

[daninthemoon]

5. no shopping this year. not for me. if anyone is planning to honor the

retail gods on this their most holy day, choose your store well. shop at stores you don't want to see go under. many will.