Florida's coming recession to be worse than the rest of the nation...UF economist says.

[madfloridian]

Things are not looking good here. Growth is down, not as many new people coming into the state now. School enrollments are down pretty much across the board.

Growth won't pay the bills in Florida

TALLAHASSEE — For the dozen state economists huddled around a table this month to fine-tune Florida's annual revenue forecast, something was different and disturbing.

Their projections from just a year ago were way off. Their new math: In the next four years, the state will collect $31.4-billion less in taxes than expected. That's more than six times the Pinellas and Hillsborough county budgets combined, the cost of more than 60 waterfront stadiums for the Tampa Bay Rays, and almost half of this year's state budget.

The free fall in revenues the economists saw Nov. 21 was not as shocking as what caused it: Fewer newcomers were moving to the state for the first time in decades. The state's legendary growth machine had ground to a halt, compounding the troubles brought on by the global recession.

..."With the mortgage crisis, the credit crunch and the flatlining of the population, the twin industries that buffered Florida through two previous recessions, real estate and construction, are weighing down Florida's economy, complicating a recovery and making it likely Florida will be among the last to bounce back.

"This recession is not only going to be bad for us. It's going to be worse than the nation's," said David Denslow, a University of Florida economist. The primary reason: Florida's residential construction boom grew at twice its normal rate and "we got overbuilt."

Our Chief Financial Officer, Alex Sink, has begged Charlie Crist to call a special session to deal with our economic crisis. The sad part is that the Republicans are not listening, and they don't want to admit it.

They have cut corporate taxes here to the bone. There is no way to make up up the (last I heard) 8 billion in taxes the businesses do not have to pay. With growth slowing, there is no way.

FL leaders in denial about dire economy. Dem CFO says call special session now.

Republicans control the Senate, 26-14, and the House, 76-44, with two Democratic House seats possibly headed for machine recounts.

The Senate's partisan makeup remains unchanged. The House, with its smaller districts and more strident partisanship, is where Democrats dreamed of gaining three to six seats. They got one.

Obama's coat tails did not extend to the Florida legislature, and I think we only had plus 1 in congressional seats.

TALLAHASSEE — Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink suggested Friday that the state's Republican leaders are in denial about the dire economy and they should call a special legislative session now to deal with the impact on the state budget.
Sink, speaking to the Council of 100 in Palm Beach, said a possible $1-billion gap in state funding demands attention now, not later.

"I do not see any way we can afford to wait until March to deal with a potential $1-billion-plus shortfall in this budget year," Sink, the state's only elected Democratic executive, said in an interview later. "That's just an impossible situation."

Either the governor or the two leaders of the Legislature call special sessions, and so far Gov. Charlie Crist and new leaders of the House and Senate, all Republicans, are taking a wait-and-see approach. And Sink's criticism comes as Crist is reaching the midpoint of his term.

Here is a quick rundown of Florida's nod to corporations and the dearth of taxes they pay.

Florida's corporate socialism

Alongside the burgeoning ranks of government employees, the state’s business sector muscled its way to the public trough. While John Q. Homeowner dutifully pays his taxes, corporate lobbyists have tweaked the tax code to benefit corporate interests. Last year:

• Manufacturers received $71 million in sales tax exemptions on electricity.

• A handful of companies got a $64 million tax break on chartered fishing boats.

• Industries avoided $55 million in taxes on boiler fuels.

• Farmers dodged $61 million in taxes on everything from equipment to ostrich feed.

• Professional sports teams (owned by billionaires) netted $20 million in subsidies and exemptions.

This adds up to real money that could soften the blow on taxpayers, but, so far, none of these tax breaks are in jeopardy at the Legislature. Indeed, lawmakers are looking to pile on more corporate goodies, including an additional $3 million tax break for racetrack owners.

From the first link above, CFO Alex Sink had some more words for her Republican counterparts who are ignoring things.

"We are in trouble," Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, who pays the state's bills, said earlier this month. "We're writing checks like crazy and the money isn't coming in."

During a single week in November, she said, the state took in a half-billion dollars in tax revenue and wrote checks totaling $1.3-billion, a recipe for fiscal disaster.

"We can't rely any more on attracting fixed-income retirees from up north and selling them cheap land," Sink said. "Those days are over."

Thank goodness for Alex's voice right now. No one else here seems to care.

[Mojorabbit]

1. I can only hope

they come to their senses. I am glad though that the building has stopped. It has broken my heart to see this state paved over.

[Warpy]

2. My dad's house has now lost a third of what I sold it for

in 2006, just weeks before the bottom fell out of the market.

The guy who bought it thought he got a bargain for about six months because I sold well under the comps.

And people thought I was nuts for letting it go for that little.

Their houses are still for sale.

[geomon666]

3. Well of course.

This state is a den of cockroaches and other vile vermin. There is corruption in every single level of the government here. Nothing, and I mean NOTHING, gets done without someone's palm getting greased. The local governments here deserved to be (metaphorically) burned to the ground.

[BlooInBloo]

4. Wanna guess what an Ohio State economist would say?

How about a New Mexico economist?

:rofl:

[tclambert]

23. Don't forget Michigan, former home of an auto industry.

[blue_onyx]

24. We've been doing bad for so long

we're almost use to it. The recession is hitting other states a little more suddenly which may make it seem like they are doing so much worse.

[Systematic Chaos]

5. I'm checking out a foreclosure map of my old Cape Coral neighborhood (1981 - 1982)

My house was the one right on the corner of SE 11th St. and SE 14th Pl. It wasn't too big but I used to love our kitchen and the huge walk-in shower in the master bath. 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1 car garage.

Sweet map here

While that house isn't up for foreclosure, just LOOK at the rest of that neighborhood!

What really has me confused is how some of those houses are listing for $200k or higher, while right next door you have some for well under $100k. Does that mean some parts of the neighborhood are in that much disrepair, or what?

[madfloridian]

14. Interesting map....if that foreclosure rate legend is true in color...this is scary

I typed in Florida...wow!

http://hotpads.com/search/#lat=27.9797636363636&lon=-83.8383090909091&zoom=14&listingTypes=foreclosure&includeVaguePricing=false&pricingFrequency=once&loan=30,0.059,0&areaBorders=heatMapForeclosurePerHousehold&background=hybrid

[RebelOne]

19. In the '60s, I worked for Gulf American Land Corp, in Miami,

the original developer of Cape Coral. I could have bought land there at that time dirt cheap.

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

6. For all practical purposes Florida doesn’t have a government

The State of Florida has been so hollowed out over the past thirty years by cuts, deregulation and privatization that Tallahassee is more or less irrelevant in the operation of the State and no longer really has the clout, ability or manpower to do much of anything that state governments do.

[madfloridian]

7. Remember Jeb's inaugural promise?

"And if we are, we can embed in society a sense of caring that makes government less necessary. There would be no greater tribute to our maturity as a society than if we can make these buildings around us empty of workers; silent monuments to the time when government played a larger role than it deserved or could adequately fill.

http://aif.com/special_notice/2003/sn_030107.shtm

That's just like Grover Norquist's government small enough to drown in a bathtub.

[FarCenter]

8. The flow of union pensioners from the Midwest and NE is about to dry up

A lot of former workers for the auto companies, both labor and management, made the trek to retirement in Florida down I-75.

There was a similar flow down I-95 from the Northeast.

Now, retirees will be staying put, moving in with the kids (or the kids will be moving in with them).

[madfloridian]

16. That's probably very true. Can't afford to retire here now...

and they are saying the 3.2% drop in tourism would have been much worse except for foreign tourism. Many Americans can't afford to vacation here now.

:shrug:

[onethatcares]

9. but, we just got the Powerball, Imagine how that will turn things around

and don't forget "when you play, we all win".:banghead: :banghead: :banghead: This is what happens when the carpetbaggers really hit town.

[JCMach1]

10. Florida has always been worst-in but one of the first out

of any recession...

This is largely thanks to tourism. Tourism crashes more quickly, but recovers sooner than other industries.

[madfloridian]

11. It's been down over 3% this last quarter.

Probably will get going this quarter.

Things seem different though since the hurricanes of 2004 and the meanderings of Fay, which hit Florida four times.

Lots of hotels slow to repair, insurance hard to come by or expensive on the coast line.

:shrug:

[JCMach1]

43. Insurance expensive everywhere... IF you can get it.

[graywarrior]

12. I know so many people who have bailed or are bailing in Florida

Houses left...they just walked away from them. This has been happening for a few years now and it's just getting worse.

[Obamarama]

13. Ummmmm...I'd like to invite this guy to Michigan.

It's been bad for some time now. If the car companies go belly up, we're going to become the armpit of the nation.

[madfloridian]

15. I would imagine you are right.

He's probably thinking in more local terms.

[sarcasmo]

26. Depression, here in Michigan if the car companies go under.

[Neshanic]

17. Why would itbe worse than say California or Arizona? We are all screwed.

[madfloridian]

22. Maybe FL is trying to sound the worst since they are all waiting for handouts.

We can't be that much worse than other states.

[quaker bill]

29. The article has it right

At one time, agriculture was the king of Fl industries. After the freezes and migration of citrus to the south, it became real estate development followed by tourism. Tourism produces jobs with salaries so low that the people can barely afford the basics.

The reason it will be worse here than a number of places is that there is virtually nothing else except financial services propping this economy up. Looked at your 401K lately? That industry is on difficult times as well.

Many other states have a more diverse economy. If we are not developing land and selling houses, the whole thing falls like a house of cards.

[juno jones]

36. One of the causes of the great depression

(vis John Galbraith) was a FL housing bubble in the 20's.

[The Backlash Cometh]

18. They create their own friggin problems.

Everything was upscale, upscale, upscale! And now school enrollments are down as families with young children can't afford to buy houses around here with whatever salaries they can manage to get.

[LaPera]

20. Republicans don't accept blame, they'll hide until they cam blame it all on the Democratic incoming

administration and Democratic congress as the reason for their states woes....certainly they won't blame themselves, republicans, nor their corporate fascist policies, allowing corporations every possible tax breaks, subsidies, wage & benefit cuts, job outscoring, all while using the workers tax dollars. Republicans don't believe in taxes for the rich or the corporations, but they certainly believe in taxes for the workers. (Even if they scream otherwise, they are liars, proof, just look at how many years republicans have been in control of FL economy)!

[happygoluckytoyou]

21. ECONOMY GOING DOWN FASTER THAN A BEAUTY QUEENS DAUGHTER AFTER A HOCKEY GAME ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

[tclambert]

25. You know you're goin' ta Hell for that one, don'tcha?

But it was fun-nee!

[sarcasmo]

27. She would be called a Puck Bunny.

[KoKo]

28. I wonder how all this news about FLA fits into the Boomers who are going to retire?

Those older Boomers who were ready to retire, those forced out of jobs because they are now older and those who dreamed of having a place in a warm climate are now sort of wondering if it's worth it to move to FLA? :shrug:

[tclambert]

47. Boomers retire? That program was cancelled. It's work 'til you die now.

From Enron to airlines dumping their pension plans to actual Ponzi schemes, an awful lot of boomers have lost their retirements. Their only hope left is social security. And the first chance the Republicans get, they'll privatize it and blow it up.

[tonycinla]

30. A suggestion for Alex

Ms.Sink,You can start by cutting ALL state employees salary by 10%.Government employees in Florida(state,county,city) make out like a bandit when you consider their entire compensation package,especially if you consider what little work they do.My ancestors came to Florida in 1833,12 years before it was a state.

[cureautismnow]

31. Jeb-Boy eliminated the intangibles tax for the wealthy.

We could sure use that money now to help prop up the state coffers. :mad:

[Mid_FL_voter]

32. FLA's economy has been a mess for a good while

The Gov, etc. did a good job of hiding it.. until they could not.

Democrat Alex Sink is much more fiscally conservative (and responsible) than any of the Republican leadership in FLA. Go figure. Go Alex!

[L0oniX]

33. Republicans? financial crisis? Jeb Bush? ...yep that figures.

[Seldona]

34. Do Floridians pay State Income Tax?

When I lived there I didn't. Has that changed?

Not inferring anything, just interested.

[cureautismnow]

35. No, we still do not.

Most of the revenue comes from the 6% state sales tax. When spending goes down, revenues follow suit.

[Ganja Ninja]

48. The reason FL doesn't have an income tax is because so many

people that live here are not residents of FL. They are retirees or vacationers that still officially reside in other states. Florida can't "income" tax them even though they use all the amenities that tax dollars provide. That's why we have a larger sales tax. It taxes everyone regardless of where they officially reside.

[peekaloo]

37. Yet Gov. Carrot Cake's top priority seems to be overturning the recent

ruling about allowing gays to adopt. He's sporting some serious rose colored coke bottle specs.


p.s. I refer to him as such because of the brown/orange skin/white icing hair on top.

[blueclown]

38. I thought lower corporate tax rates were supposed to create jobs?

Wasn't that the right wing talking point?

What's Florida's excuse?

[bushmeister0]

39. The first thing I notice every time I go back to FLA is the cops.

Cops, cops and more cops. Theres one on every corner. Every little municiplality has got enough cops to keep 10 Duncan Donuts in business.

And yet FLA always has the highest crime rates. Go figure.

I'd say, Florida's finest better get out there and write some business, raise that revenue to justify their fancy, super charged Mustangs.

[KillCapitalism]

40. Wow, that's sad.

Florida (South) has the nicest weather in the country.

[bushmeister0]

42. It does?

How long did you live in So. FLA?

I was there for 30 years and all I remember is the stiffling humidity, starting in May and getting progressivly worse until about the end of October, followed by the gagging Everglades fires during the winter and, oh yes, he the daily monsoons beginning around 4:30 and ending around 7 every afternoon.

Then there are the tropical storms, the Hurricanes, the terrifying thunder stroms that come out of no where, which produce mini tornados, hail and flash flooding. Fun stuff. Oh, and the Palmetto bugs!



The Sunshine State my ass!

[KillCapitalism]

41. Wow, that's sad.

Florida (South) has the nicest weather in the country.

[florida08]

44. According to the first article

"After five years of double-digit increases in housing starts and price increases, it's now second in the nation in foreclosure filings, with 444,000 homeowners in default, according to industry researcher RealtyTrac. Florida had the lowest unemployment rate in June 2006. Now it has the ninth highest. And in the most important indicator of a productive economy, gross domestic product, Florida led the nation in 2005 and now ranks 47th."

It's quite depressing to see this happen to our state but the captitalists greed brought this on. Overbuilding and driving prices up.
A boom should be conservative but they sucked the life out of land and now we're seeing it's results. As bad as it is here my heart goes out to Detroit. No matter how bad these CEO's have mismanaged those companies the workers there don't deserve the shaft their getting. Salaries cut in half while these morons travel in private jets to ask for help. They should be fired. The whole country needs to be restructured and built from the ground up..not destroyed from the top down.

[madfloridian]

45. County and city commissions are filled with real estate developers...

who have voted in their own best interests for years. They have been rezoning rural lands for large apartment complexes...maybe some of that will stop for a while.

Florida under Jeb was a test case for the Bush principles of no checks and balances, no common sense, low corporate taxes, and privatizing government.

It is all crashing down around us now....and Jeb is still in the background choreographing.

[florida08]

46. you are right madfloridian

we're native blue collar workers and have watched how these people have raped the state. Crime is up and so are mortgage delinquencies. Generally the rate of homeowners 2 months behind have been 2% but now is at almost 4%. I read where currently 7.6 million homeowners now owe more on their homes than their worth. More loans are coming into their 'reset' period in '09. Florida, Nevada, California, and Arizona are areas hardest hit. TranUnion said it now expects as many as 7.8 percent of homeowners in Florida to be delinquent by the end of this year. No checks or balances and no government. I wouldn't vote Jeb for dogcatcher..lol but I'm not sure how much better Crist is. Thought he would be ;(

[Joe Chi Minh]

49. I would hope Obama would try to equalise the impact throughout the

country by whatever means is available.