My son lost his job 4 months ago. Now, unemployed, makes more money than you can shake a stick at.

[Billy Burnett]

How?

Blackjack. Seminole Hard Rock Casino.

Lives in Hollywood Fl. He was in a panic over the job loss. Smart youngster (mid 30's). Goes to the casino early every morning when no one is there. Plays one on one w/the dealer. Plays until he loses 1 hand then walks. Goes straight to the bank and deposits his winnings. Rinse repeat 1x to 4x per day.

Unemployed. He made $40,000 in January (right in line with his per month earnings winnings from the previous 3 months).

This is making his mother happy. It's freaking me out.

[ogneopasno]

1. He's fine, until that first time he plays "just one more" after he loses the first time.

But still. Gah.

[Billy Burnett]

4. That's his rule. Doesn't do that. Very disciplined.

Doesn't bet it all. Ever.

He just bought a new MB SCL500 yesterday.

[ogneopasno]

63. Y'know, this is the red flag for me here.

I don't know you or your son, and I'm sure I'm out of line. But the guy's unemployed and he goes out and buys a $100K car? Something's not right. Maybe it's just his judgment that's off and he really is raking it in from the casino. But, really, think about it.

[CreekDog]

96. the control to bet, win, lose then leave and bank $$ doesn't jibe with buying a 100k vehicle

we are talking about extremely restrained, methodical behavior

at the same time we must believe he spent almost all the winnings on a car.

seeing is believing.

[ogneopasno]

97. Yup, that's what I'm saying. It just doesn't make sense.

[Numba6]

136. FREE MONEY? Why, SIGN ME UP!

I can do this until that check clears from the Nigerian finance ministry!

[Blue_Tires]

73. wow...i want your son's luck

far be it for me to judge, but shouldn't he try to save some of it instead of burning it on a lavish, rapidly depreciating asset?

[Why Syzygy]

133. Make sure he pays taxes. nt

[supernova]

2. It would freak me out

too.

As long as he doesn't develop a habit and start playing even though he is losing.

The House will figure out how to make him lose. Count on it.

[Myrina]

3. Seriously, once he has enough to = his year's salary, STOP HIM.

... easy come, easy go ... as they say.

[Billy Burnett]

9. I can't stop him.

He's not a gambling addict (at least he wasn't).

He goes into the casino w/a $200 roll. Walks out if he loses that. Comes back later in the day and wins $5,000.

On average he spends no more than 10 hours a week playing. Then he goes fishing for the rest of his time.

Nice, huh?

[orleans]

135. why does he go back later the same day?

sounds like he might have a gambling problem.

[Horse with no Name]

142. Uh...actually he is. Sadly. n/t

[Winterblues]

5. It takes a very special person to consistantly beat the House.

The odds are very much in their favor. It is one thi9ng to occasionally win some monmey but to do so on a consistant basis is rare indeed. I say good for him.

[HereSince1628]

13. And once they believe you are a card counter you are banished

I suspect the son's run of luck won't last very much longer.

[Billy Burnett]

25. That's what we say too. n/t

[Cleita]

106. They banish you for playing a smart game?

It doesn't seem very sporting to me. I don't play cards in casinos, but I do play Bridge and the only way you can win is by being a card counter. I hope I understood what you meant.

[Hugabear]

119. Casinos are not charity houses. They exist to take YOUR money.

I guess it depends on how you go about it. If you're consistently winning lots of money, then they'll get suspicious, and could ban you. From the OP, it sounds like he's chipping away a little at a time.

But make no mistake, the casino is there to make money, not give it away. They will do everything they can to protect their interest.

[Why Syzygy]

134. If he's banked that much money, they know who he is. nt

[Selatius]

120. Yup. A casino is ultimately a privately-owned establishment.

As a result, you are a guest, and they do not have to welcome you if they do not want to.

[davepc]

123. Casinos are under no obligation to take your business.

Blackjack is one of the few games where the house edge can be eroded to nothing by a smart disciplined player. They can ask you to either play any other game in the establishment or leave the premises.

[givemebackmycountry]

6. Wait a minute - you sure you didn't mean 4 grand and not 40 grand?

And what happens if he loses his first hand, and I don't mean "one" hand I mean the first hand immediately after he sits down?
I have played a lot of blackjack, and many times I've lost the first 7 out of 10 hands dealt.
What's he playing $25 minimum? $100 minimum?

If he made $40 grand in January, I'm quitting my job tomorrow and going to hang out with your son.
He's a hell of a player.

[enough]

7. This is the first thing I've ever heard that made me get interested in gambling.

Can someone explain to me why we aren't all doing this?

[Earth_First]

8. Because not everyone can play cards well enough to beat the house odds...

and those who are 'winning 40 grand a month' are likely lying to cover losses.

[EOTE]

36. Your odds of winning your first hand at Blackjack is less than 50%.

It doesn't matter how good of a player you are (and once you've memorized all the probability matrices, you're about as good as you can get). The key to making money at Blackjack is by counting cards. Counting cards does not increase the odds of you winning any particular hand, but it does allow you to know when you are more likely to win a hand. Once you've discovered that a deck is rich in 10s and face cards, you know that the deck is stacked in your favor. When the deck is stacked in your favor, you know to start increasing your bet. If you're sneaky, you'll generally start increasing your bet very slowly so as not to arise suspicions. Of course, there's nothing illegal about counting cards, but they can kick out anyone they want for any reason that they want, so it's usually best to be as discrete as possible.

[yodoobo]

56. And you can't count cards by playing 5 hands a day

By going home after the first loss, means that you rarely see more than 5 hands on a single day.

On most days, you'll see a single hand.

[EOTE]

67. That is correct.

The best card counters are just as likely to win any given hand as someone else who has memorized the dealer matrix. The reason that card counters can make a lot of money is because they know when their winning streak is about to hit. And that's when they start betting high. However, if you use 6 decks, you've got to be a much better card counter PLUS you have to play far more games before you start to realize if the deck is in your or the house's favor. On top of that, some casinos will shuffle the deck before you even get a good idea whether the deck is in your favor or not. So it can be hard to find casinos that actually make it easy for card counters to beat the house.

[Dorian Gray]

85. Yeah...

cause we'd all be broke within a month if we tried to live like this.

[NikolaC]

It Can Be Iffy

I play NL Holdem for fun and am constantly trying to better my game. The best that I have ever done was place second in a low limit tourney. When it works well, things are good, but don't count on it working out all of the time. Even the pros have bad days. I wish your son luck, hope that he is being careful and continues to be disciplined because gambling is a very risky way to earn a living.

[NikolaC]

111. Delete Dupe

[Horse with no Name]

143. I wouldn't get too interested in this anecdotal tale

If it is completely true, it is a rarity.
It doesn't happen this way very often because if it did, casinos would not be in business.

[ThomWV]

10. Well, there you go. Economic problems solved. We now have a plan.

[prolesunited]

11. Something doesn't sound right about this story

[louis-t]

12. I'm sorry, I have a problem believing this.

NOBODY makes $40,000 a month playing cards. NOBODY. Not consistently, not for long, not with six decks. The odds are stacked against the player. I've known many people who claimed to be making a ton of money at the casino. Turns out they were all lying. One guy finally admitted he only comes out a few hundred bucks a year ahead. Another guy ended up losing his house.

[Billy Burnett]

18. I did too. Until recently.

He called home last night to tell his mother that she shouldn't worry about his new vocation - also asking about tax accountants.

He told her that he knows he is lucky and that he is humbled by the experience of the last 4 months.

He has socked away his earnings (aside from the new car) knowing that it can't last.

He has a system. :shrug:

[KittyWampus]

21. The ONLY way he's making that much money is dealing drugs or trafficking something

heinous.

[Billy Burnett]

24. What a disgusting allegation.

Stick it where the sun don't shine. OK?

[snooper2]

77. What's disgusting about dealing drugs?

Somebody's got to do it :)

[eShirl]

23. "He has a system."

Uh oh.

[Billy Burnett]

27. His system: walk when you've won.

Don't push the luck. Be happy w/a few hundred in winnings every time he plays and then walks when he loses once. Come back again later.

[Random_Australian]

139. What difference is there between coming back in a day and coming back in an hour?

For that matter, what difference is there between coming back in an hour and coming back in a minute?

It adjusts the rate at which you lose money to the house (a hundred a day to a hundred per hour, for instance), but it doesn't affect the fact that in that game, you lose money to the house when you play.

[zipplewrath]

32. Do the math, somethings wrong

Suppose he is starting with $200 and "making" $40,000 in a month. 30 days, that's roughly $1300 per day on a stake of $200. That's a return of over 600%, day after day, month after month. Even if he is counting cards and doing a few other marginally legal things, he'd be doing well to play at about 52%.

We can suppose he's only making 4 grand a month. Then we are talking about only winning 130 bucks per day with a $200 stake. That'd make a tad more sense, only a tad more but he is suggesting he's winning about 60%. If he's doing anything, he's getting supremely lucky. He's limiting his down side and currently is making one or two smart bets a week that cover for an awful lot of break even/loss days. But the gamblers fallicy kicks in sooner or later. The house has "unlimited" deep pockets, and can sustain their losses for much longer than your son. Furthermore, they can "limit" his winnings (max bets etc). It won't take many "bad" days to burn through $4000 a month.


All in all I think I'd go with him some day and see what's up.

[Billy Burnett]

43. For example...

... he said he won about $20,000 yesterday morning. Will take a few days off.

I don't know how he does it, I'm busy working an honest job for comparative peanuts, but when I get back from the road I will be going w/him to see for myself.

[Selatius]

121. It astonishes me the casino has not kicked him out yet. Something doesn't add up.

The best counters I've run across have walked away after winning just 200 or 300 dollars a day. They know if they won even more than that, they would be painting a target on themselves for getting kicked out at the casinos I'm familiar with.

[louis-t]

46. EVERYBODY has a 'system'.

[Dawgs]

37. Sounds like he's doing "something else" and lying to his Mom.

I hate to be so honest, but that's how it looks.

[crispini]

104. Ding ding ding!

Just based on what I'm reading on this thread, it doesn't sound right.

[ozu]

91. poker players can

Depending on their stakes and talent level of course. Poker isn't played against the house though.

For the OP, I have doubts anyone can do this consistently playing a house game like blackjack, even if they can count and count well. Accurate counts could give you a slight edge 50.5 v 49.5, but any sort of consistency in terms of winnings is purely a statistical anomaly.

[SoCalDem]

108. My friend called me one night to tell me she won $2K..yippee..BUT

she did not factor in all the times she LOST, so the best she did was "catch up" over all..

When I go to Vegas once a year, I take $700 or $800 (put it in my right pocket) and once it's gone, I watch TV:).. If I win a biggie (I usually win a few multiple-hundred jackpots) I put $100 bills in my left pocket until I match what I brought..and do not use it at all..I play with the "winnings" in my right pocket:)

[tjwash]

14. Hee...how come the title sounds like those "make millions a year at home NOW!!" emails?

:rofl:

[Sugar Smack]

66. ...My first thought, too!

Or the commercial with the guy in the yacht, the yachting cap, a pipe stuck in his mouth, and the Cote d'Azur all set up behind him?



:D

[drm604]

15. How many decks are they dealing from?

I thought that all of them were dealing from a 6 deck shoe these days to thwart card counting, and card counting is the only way that he could win so consistently.

Also, I would think that the casino would cut off someone who is taking so much money from them. I hate to bring this possibility up, but is it possible he's involved in something shady and making up the gambling story?

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

16. Delete

"Hoax" is more credible. Either that or the OP works for the casino.

[KittyWampus]

19. I had the same thoughts as you. Too bad you deleted your original message

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

28. I believed it at first, and then thought it stupid.

And I don't like to look stupid. Hence the delete.

[Billy Burnett]

20. LOL.

I'm a struggling musician/sound production engineer/SMPTE union member.

I was struggling with believing this until recently.

[Sanity Claws]

17. How much is he betting?

Is he betting $2 a pop, $10 a pop?
This is over $1300 a day in winnings. It wouldn't take him long to get noticed by the casino and they may bar him or accuse him of being a card counter or something similar.

[CreekDog]

95. and what is the table limit?

it takes a pretty high bet to make that kind of money, bets that many tables don't allow.

also, the level of betting means that the casino notices him and are either treating him like royalty or kicking him out.

but he is not making this money quietely.

[MindPilot]

22. The casino will cut him off

Even if the story is true, anyone who consistently wins at the same game at the same casino is going to be assumed to be cheating. Nobody, but nobody can beat the house odds that often.

[global1]

26. So We Should Get The Senators To Include More Poker Dealers In The.....

stimulus package - huh? That would be job creation at it's best.

[ieoeja]

29. Don't take any cards past 12.

I have sat at the table a few times with 12 against a dealer's 15. But the dealer has to take cards until he hits at least 16 or 17.

Just don't bust, and you're going to win more than you lose.

[EOTE]

40. That would assume the dealer busts more often than not.

And that is certainly NOT the case. If you never hit on anything higher than a 12, you'll lose an awful lot of money very quickly, even if you're talking about hard twelves. If you're talking about a soft 12, that's even sillier.

[ieoeja]

44. That is how I have always played. And I only walked away a loser one time.

This is not because the dealer busts more often than not. It is because the dealer busts *or* ends with a lower count more often than not.

The dealer and I will still split blackjacks evenly with mine paying 50% more than his. I am still going to get a lot of twenty counts. And a few 17s, 18s and 19s.

What I don't do is bust. Never. And as already stated, I only walked away a loser one time when a dealer hit an off-the-charts number of blackjacks in a short time.

And yes, I am talking about a *hard* twelve or higher.

[EOTE]

47. Then you've gotten extremely lucky.

If the dealer played by those rules, everyone would become a millionaire playing Blackjack because the odds would be so stacked against the house.

[StarryNite]

30. Sounds wonderful...

why doesn't he take you with him so you can do the same thing. You said it makes his mother happy but it freaks you out. You don't really sound freaked out, you sound very happy about it too. Go with him, find out how he does it, then report back to the rest of us so we can do it too! Then you could even expand by making infomercials.

[Billy Burnett]

31. Um. I'm on the road working for a working man's wages.

I'm not an advocate of gambling. I was opposed to the Fla lottery, and to Indian Casino gambling. I am not pleased at the inequity of gambling and the money it leaches from an economy.

His winning of so much has defeated so much of the reasoning I used to dish out about the evils of gambling when he was a youngster. :argh: I'm kind of pissed.

Oh well.

[lib2DaBone]

33. You don't even have to go to the Casino....

..just call your Commodities Broker and place a bet.

[pipi_k]

34. I'm having trouble believing it too, but

whatever. If he says it's working for him, great.

As for me...

I've never even won a few lousy bucks at Bingo.


OTOH, my mom plays Keno all the time and wins a lot. My daughter plays the lottery and buys scratch tickets. She wins a lot too.


Some people just have a "knack" for that sort of thing.

:shrug:

[Lex]

35. Hope he's putting away the tax money he'll owe on that.

nt

[Billy Burnett]

38. That's what the call to his mother last night was about.

He knows he's going to take a big tax hit, but that's OK to him because that means he's making income.

It, as a means of income, can't possibly last. Can it?

[CreekDog]

94. why am i worried that he will ask for money to pay taxes?

:shrug:

if it happens, DON'T DO IT.

[demokatgurrl]

39. Great, until he gets banned. Better tell him to rotate casinos. n/t

[LoZoccolo]

41. The casino can kick him out any time they want.

The only state I think they can't kick you out for being too good is New Jersey. They can bar you from blackjack, which they will do if you are counting cards or otherwise taking a lot of their money.

[NNN0LHI]

42. Here is the problem with this story

If anyone consistently wins at any casino the casino will know there is something amiss in a jiffy. Cameras are everywhere. The person who accomplished this would find themselves with two thugs dressed in suits one on each arm being escorted out the nearest door western style. And then they will not let you back in any more.

Yep.

Don

[Billy Burnett]

45. My thinking too.

Hasn't happened yet.

Waiting for that phone call soon.

-

Don't know what to say about the negative reactions by DUers.

I don't like gambling. Don't like that he's "earning" money in this way. He's his own man now, and he know it most likely won't last long. What I do know is that if he says he's winning big in this way I know it's true - one thing he's not is a bullshitter/liar.

[Tsiyu]

130. i give you the benefit of the doubt

you believe your kid.

But casinos ARE Big Brother. They survey, profile and they are always watching. However, there are a lot of casinos, and one guy making a bit here and a bit there might get away with it for a while.



Edit: I thought you said son was in vegas. Sorry! One casino?

The dealers are going to start noticing him, though, being there that long. So I question his ability to continue much longer if this is what he's doing. Maybe altering shifts and only playing a few days a week he's getting away with it longer.

But I was hoping this was a thread about something more...tangible for the rest of us...sigh

[taught_me_patience]

48. Dumb as hell

nobody beats the casino over time unless they are card counting. The casino will find out real fast and kick him out.

[yodoobo]

49. The math has big problems with this story.

Something else is happening here.


Playing till you lose one hand and going home everyday is mathematically no different than playing continuously.



You can get a very small (less than ~1%) edge in blackjack by playing perfect basic strategy. More from counting cards.

However since he's going home after a single losing hand, counting cards is ineffective in this scenario.


To win $40,000 with a 1% edge, would require 4 million dollars being bet across a large number of hands.

Lets see. On average, you are going to be able to play about 2 hands a day. Lets be EXTREMELY generous and say 5 hands a day. In one month that is grand total of 150 hands.

Lets put it all together. 150 hands with a 1% edge and you win $40,000. That's an average bet of ~$26,666 per hand.

Now the ~1% edge is across millions of hands. With a super small sample of about 150, this becomes fantastically improbable, but lets ignore that facet.



Understand, I enjoy gambling and I really like blackjack. But the math is not there to support this story.

[SergeyDovlatov]

50. Make sure that he saves regularly part of the winnings and never gambles with thouse

Luck is ought to run out some day.
Statistically with the best possible play he can only win 48% or so of the time.

[Baby Snooks]

110. That's the secret of successful gamblers...

I had a friend who played the slots and roulette in Las Vegas and she would play up to $10,000 her first day. That's all. She would win, then go back the next day but only play half her previous day's winnings. Sometimes she would play for a week. Sometimes just the following day. When that half of the previous day's winnings was gone, so was she. One time she ended the first day having lost the $10,000. She packed and headed for the airport. Other than that I think she averaged about $50,000 net winnings every year and she went to Las Vegas two or three times a year. Not bad for what was just supplemental income earned while having fun. But she also knew how quickly good luck, and she believed even the cheaters had good luck in not getting caught, can turn to bad luck. And that's why she put a limit on what she could afford to lose. She only lost that one time. The other times she came home with net winnings. Meaning she got her $10,000 back plus an average of $50,000 a year. For some, Las Vegas offers better odds than Wall Street.

I don't know enough about the odds to say whether this is unbelievable or not. But I do know enough about people who gamble to know some do defy the odds. Smart people know, however, the odds are still against you even when defying them. And so they limit what they're willing to lose. Hope your son is smart!

[Sanity Claws]

51. Go with him

A few of us do not believe this is possible and that this is actually a cover story your son has come up with. Instead of simply ignoring these warnings, go and see for yourself.
Remember you said you are being freaked out -- deep down, you know something is wrong with this story.

[EFerrari]

54. This sounds like a very reasonble suggestion.

I hope everything is okay.

[Doremus]

59. "deep down, you know something is wrong with this story" - my thought exactly.

I think OP has doubts and is here looking for reassurance.

Sorry, OP, but as soon as you can you ought to go with him. You'll find out one way or another, and hopefully you can have a good discussion with your son.

[Stephanie]

52. I have a friend who makes his living on internet poker

He has a system that he learned from a book, and the secret is to never vary from it. When it's time to walk away, you walk away. He wanted me to try this but I couldn't convince myself.

[yodoobo]

64. You can consistently earn money on poker

Since you are playing against other people instead of house that is stacked against you.


Blackjack, the only way to earn a living at it, is to count cards and NOT be detected by the casino.

[snooper2]

79. Yep- I go to Windstar and win most every time- Texas Holdem

Rule #1- Don't go during the weekdays- or weekday evenings. That's when folks are just sitting there all day long waiting for suckers....

Go when it's busy and idiots show up half drunk- Friday and Saturday nights--


Other rules you'll have to learn on your own :evilgrin:

[borelord]

92. details?

what's his system/book? My friends and I play for nickels and I suck.

[Stephanie]

118. I really don't know

sorry

[aikoaiko]

53. statistically, blackjack is a negative expectation game

soon, he will lose on the first hand enough times to wipe out what he has earned.

[serrano2008]

55. There is no way this is true.

Either it's completely made up or

this kid isn't telling his parents the truth about where he's getting all that money.

[WCIL]

57. I hope this is really happening for him.

The two gamblers I know who "never lost" and "knew when to quit" were both gambling addicts who told monumental lies and did horrible things to cover up the fact that they lost big.

I don't think anyone is trying to hurt your feelings, but those of us who know problem gamblers are picking up the clues in this story. Again, I hope your son is truly the luckiest/smartest/most scientific card player there is. I really do.

[scheming daemons]

58. Hate to break this to you, but your son is lying to you...

Sorry.

He's getting the money some other way.


I know he's your son and you want to believe him.



But he's lying to you.

[AngryOldDem]

60. That's just a train wreck waiting to happen.

I'm with you -- I'd be batshit over this.

[SmileyRose]

61. Billy - I have to add my voice to the skeptics

I don't know you or your son. Calling him a liar is so rude it's beyond measure. BUT - this is so outlandish that I hope you'll dig further and find out if your son is in trouble.

[Nickster]

74. Agreed. The numbers just don't work out. Something is amiss, or we aren't hearing the entire set of

facts.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

62. Your story doesn't make sense. The odds of losing the first hand are greater than 50%.

He can only make money with any consistency if he brings a huge roll and counts cards, escalating the bet when the decks are more favorable to him.

So if he leaves immediately after losing a hand, he should walk out most days having lost one hand worth of bet and won nothing.

If he's not leaving after one hand most days, he's lying or something else is going on.

You can't have a "system" for winning the first hand at blackjack, it's simple math, the game favors the house.

[CreekDog]

69. but how can he count cards to win the first hand?

is he watching beforehand?

also sounds like he is coming up to an empty table.

to the dad: go ahead and worry all you want, especially after he bought the Mercedes.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

82. That's my point. He can't. The only way to win consistently is to count cards.

It requires you to bring shitloads of money and sit and play enough hands for your card counting to earn statistical dividends, and to vary your bets according to the count. Without confederates to spread the counting and big bets around with, you'd be completely obvious to a casino manager reviewing a videotape and you'd be 86ed in no time.

And even then, if you played correctly, you could still lose big money on an individual hand if you were just very unlucky. That's why you'd have to play lots of money over lots of hands to make it work.

It has nothing to do with "I quit as soon as I lose a hand". Even if you were playing good strategy, that's the dumbest "system" ever.

If the son is consistently bringing home big income week after week, unless it were from card counting, the income is from some other source.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

86. Actually, if you had confederates doing the count, and signalling you to the table when the count

was favorable, you COULD win most hands, and bet and win big money doing so.

This is exactly what the MIT blackjack team did, read about it in the very interesting book "Bringing Down the House". Their system involved having separate players be counters, "big bettor/gorillas", among other roles. The basic counters would not vary their bet but would keep track of the count and signal in the other players when the count was favorable. Their biggest players would pretend to be high rollers of various types, swooping in to place big bets when the count was good and all team members trying to avoid arousing suspicion.

http://www.amazon.com/21-Bringing-Tie-Students-Millions/dp/1416561706/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1233687658&sr=1-1

But you'd have to split your take with those same confederates, there's no way they would undergo the risk of getting frozen out of the casinos themselves by counting for you without getting some of the take.

And, eventually, all such players get ID'ed and 86'ed from all casinos.

[Nickster]

122. Counting is pretty much a dead art now. With the shuffling machines there's no way to keep a count

that will do you any good, it might get you a slight advantage, but only for the one shoe. Counting was much better when they didn't have the giant shuffling machine, every time they shuffle, they bring out a different set of 6-8 decks of cards. You can still count if you find a one deck game, but then they move the house advantage by taking away things from the player, like doubling only on 9,10, or 11 or paying out 6 to 5 instead of 3 to 2 on blackjack.

[Writer]

65. Great, but he'd better save half of that for taxes. n/t

[CreekDog]

68. I didn't know you could play against the house at Indian Casinos

I thought you could only play against each other.

Also, I may be wrong, but I always take with a grain of salt what people say they won. Not one person I know who gambles a lot and often ever tells me about anything they have lost.

[yodoobo]

72. Depends on the state

I've been in a number of Indian casinos where you do play against the house.

[Horse with no Name]

144. In Oklahoma you play against the house at their casinos

(Choctaw).
However, they will switch dealers EVERY time the dealer loses more than two hands and reshuffle the cards.

[Heidi]

70. At that rate, it's only a matter of time until they shut him off. I hope he's planning for that day.

It will come. You can be certain of that. Casinos do not exist to consistently lose to guys like your son. They could not stay in business if they did. Further, if he's shut off by one casino, you can be sure that the casino will share his description with other casinos. I take you at your word that your OP is the truth; please take me at mine that this streak will not continue indefinitely.

[Eryemil]

71. He's either peddling his ass or selling coke

Being a high-end rentboy is GREAT work. You get to choose your clients, the pay is great and no need to do risky scenes. Of course, it is not an easy to get into and requires considerable physical assets...

Still, if you're religious I would pray this is actually what he's doing 'cause otherwise sooner or later he is going to get fucked. And not in the pleasant aforementioned way either.

Approach at your own discretion.

[EFerrari]

75. What an incredibly ugly post. Remind me never to come to you

with a concern about my kids. :puke:

[Eryemil]

81. I don't see what's ugly about it

Things certainly don't add up and if he's lying it has to either be illegal or embarrassing (or both)
I would certainly prefer my children worked for a reputable escort agency than getting involved with something scary.

My two examples are on either end of the spectrum, from things he might be embarrassed to talk about to hardcore illegal dealings he'd definitely want to hide.

[Mika]

125. Indeed.

Posting one's concern and then having your son being accused of being a drug dealer, meth addict, prostitute, etc, is simply unbelievable.

As you know, Billy and his family are a special group of the kindest and most gentle and generous people I've met. Billy mentioned over the weekend that their boy was making a living at poker, and that he's very worried about it. I've met his boy and I seriously doubt any nefarious activity (aside from the nature of gambling itself). He's a fine liberal young person.

---

As a comment to our "fellow" DUers - hey, if a DUer posts concerns over a family member can we please not behave like fucking freepers with all of the hooker, meth addict, and dope dealer accusations? Where a fair warning is warranted, by all means do so - but can we do it with some tact? Some posts here are simply over the top.

My 2 cents.

[JVS]

76. He better be careful. If he keeps winning that much they might ban him.

[newportdadde]

78. I think your son is lying to you.

In one of your posts you mentioned he won 20k in just one morning. I'm sorry but I think you son is lying. Ask him for a picture of himself in front of the car parked in front of where he lives. If one of my sons told me this tale that would be my first thought, not because I don't love them but because the math doesn't support it.

My hope is that your son isn't doing any of this, didn't actually buy this car and its all just an act. Hopefully he is just blowing off steam by making up tales as he find himself into a 4 month job loss. It will be one of those things that just goes away after he gets a job, he will come up with a tale of why he quit and sold the car(that he never had anyways).

The other option is that he does have this cash and then I would be worried.. really worried because the math just doesn't support him making this kind of cash in a casino using this 'system'. So the money came from some other source.

[EFerrari]

84. When my younger son went out there on Meth, there was a period

where he made up stories. Looking back, he needed those stories to tell himself more than he needed them to tell me. This thread reminds me of the moment when I knew to a certainty we had a problem. And, I still feel sad for the loss of that moment just before I knew that.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

80. I believe this story. It's entirely possible to have a high paying career at blackjack.

When I used to fight the Soviets as a spy for the CIA, I would frequently take vacations in the Bahamas where I'd make loads of money at blackjack and spend it all dating sexy celebrities and buying magic pixie dust that made me fly through the air as long as I believed.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

83. This is actually the most believable post in this thread.

[michreject]

87. I've never seen a casino empty

They're always full of people who are not smiling.

[flvegan]

88. I can shake a stick at WAY more money than that.

Pfft.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

107. Me too, but in the end

it's still somebody else's money.

And all I have is this stick.

:hi:

[backscatter712]

89. Poker would be my game of choice...

Poker is one of those games where a really skilled and talented player can actually make money. Of course, the problem, as is the problem that faces anyone who tries to gamble for a living, is that you have to be really, really damned good to pull it off.

Some people can do it. I'm not one of them. I'm bad at reading people and bluffing, to be honest.

[Hello_Kitty]

90. What if he loses the very first hand?

Does he keep playing, or quit while he's behind?

[Alexander]

93. Nonsense. I know people who play poker for a living - not even they make that much.

The poker players I know do it by playing against other people, not the house.

Winning like that against the house is impossible. They'd kick your son out.

I suspect he is either not doing the math right, is supplementing his income through other means, or is exaggerating with regards to how much money he's making.

If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

"This is making his mother happy. It's freaking me out."

Of course it is. As other DUers have pointed out, you're freaking out because your common sense tells you this is impossible. And it is.

[LeftHander]

98. My son lost his job now addicted to gambling, lost my home...nt

[EFerrari]

100. I'm so sorry.

:(

[Catherine Vincent]

99. I just alerted the Seminole Hard Rock Casino!

(just kidding) :evilgrin:

[Contrary1]

101. My dad had that kind of luck...

One time at a bingo parlor, he felt a card on the floor under his foot (wasn't his), switched it for one he had been playing, and won $1,000 the next game. That was 40 years ago. He was quite lucky at pool picks too. Won more than he lost.

Unfortunately, it wasn't genetic.

[Arkansas Granny]

102. It would be freaking me out, too, if it were my son. I hope what he is telling you is true, but

I have a hard time believing that you are being told the complete story.

[Divine Discontent]

103. he could be that one in a million person that just somehow gets lucky

but, you do realize that the odds slightly favor the house in blackjack and in saying that he wouldn't win 4 grand in a day playing only until he loses. sorry, he's making money in whatever manner that he doesn't wish to tell you, more than likely. you posted this so you're willing to hear our thoughts, but you sit down and play blackjack and see how many hands it takes before the dealer beats you, remember, YOU have to decide first if you want to hit or stay on what you have - then the dealer goes - he will lose a hand within the first one to three hands a high majority of the time. Perhaps you need someone to make sure he's going there, and if he is, great - he's beat the odds to ridiculous heights! But, it doesn't add up. Hope it's true.

[tkmorris]

105. No, he didn't.

I am going to assume that you are telling the truth as you see it Billy. Unfortunately, that means your son is lying to you. South Florida is full of people who like to claim they make an ongoing income at the casino, but that lie will ONLY fly with people who do not understand casino gambling very well.

I do. And he isn't doing what he says he is. For starters, Blackjack (and every other casino table game) is designed to give the house a slight but consistent advantage over the player. In the long term your son, and any other player in the world, will lose the first hand they play more often than they will win it against a cold deck. Now intuitively you might believe that by walking away after losing a hand, but continuing to play when you win somehow overcomes this. It doesn't. He isn't "quitting" when he loses a hand, he's merely taking a break, to come back later or the next day. From a mathematical standpoint this is no different than continuing to play all in one session. The math doesn't care how much time there is between hands, only how many there are.

The only real way to overcome the small but significant advantage the house has in blackjack is by counting cards, a method which requires the player to observe the cards eliminated from play (by being dealt in prior hands) and to play only when the cards remaining in the shoe are balanced in a way to offer the player a small advantage temporarily. The world has many players who claim they can do this but there are likely less than a hundred worldwide who can do it effectively enough to win with any consistency whatsoever, and the major casinos know exactly who those little math wizards are and do not allow them entry. Even if your son was capable of this, he isn't doing it because doing so means playing when the casino is busy, since you need other players to burn cards out of the deck on their money while you wait for an opportunity to play the rare friendly deck. Your son claims to be doing the exact opposite of this, playing in a deserted casino with absolutely no knowledge of what cards remain in the dealers shoe.

This should be sending up all sorts of red flags for you Billy. I don't know what your son might be doing to pull down that 40K a month, if indeed he is, but he is NOT doing it playing blackjack at Seminole Hardrock. Of course he's a grown man, he can do what he likes within the law, but as his father you should at least be aware that something is definitely amiss here.

[rufus dog]

112. I agree, impossible for him to win at BJ as described

To win 2k per day on $250 bets he would need to walk in and win 4 consecutive hands each day (.0625) twenty consecutive times per month. Winning two days in a row using that system is less than a 1% chance. Doing it 20 days in a row is infinitesimal. Walking away after losing actual is worse, that eliminates the knowledge gained by the first hand.

Billy you need to check on him, because the money can't be coming in as described.


I once had a friend win over 120 k in a weekend on blackjack, two separate runs of 75k and 45k. On the 75k run he thinks he won or pushed on about 15 hands. So in effect, pure luck by letting the money continue to ride. We went to the casino the following weekend and made it three steps into Caesars Palace in LV before security was on us. Not to ban him, but to see if he wanted anything and get him back to the tables immediately. He lost 20k back in less than 30 minutes, and lost all of the money back in under 45 days. As stated numerous times above the only way to "even" the odds with the house is to card count and increase bets at certain times/situations.

If you son did win a two grand a day over a couple of weeks, they would know him. They would look at his betting patters and if it was luck they would sit his ass down an have him keep playing because the odds are in favor of the house. If he was counting they would throw his ass out.

[SidDithers]

114. And even worse, every time he takes a "break"...

he's coming back to a cold deck again, with the corresponding "bad" odds.

Sid

[ConsAreLiars]

131. Billy, you really need to read that post.

The short version: Every Casino game is stacked against the players, no matter when they take a break.

[Shakespeare]

138. What you said.

I'm familiar with the casino system, too, and there's no WAY the OP's son is pulling in that kind of money playing blackjack. It's simply not possible. I hope the OP does go with his son soon, and hopefully goes with him on several consecutive days. I have a funny feeling the son may have a sudden losing streak while dad's around.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

109. a friend of mine gave up his career at law to do this, says he makes more money

[rufus dog]

113. so, he was paying for law school

and rather than shelling out 40k per year he is only losing 20k per year?

[La Lioness Priyanka]

115. no, no .. i mean after he graduated and got a job..

[EFerrari]

117. How well do you know him?

[La Lioness Priyanka]

124. not very, sorry, i thought it was crazy and i distance myself from crazy

[closeupready]

116. See, this was the analogy I was going to raise re: paying taxes.

Daschle fails to pay $125,000 in taxes, and it's a mere oversight/mistake. Now I'm sure your son is doing the right thing, but for the sake of argument, if he DID NOT pay taxes on his income, and say it was $200,000 he earned at blackjack, do you realize how many people here would be calling for his head? I mean, seriously.

[seabeyond]

126. i moved to reno. one of first nights out i was with an addicted gambler.

we played thru the night. when we lost the money, we were looking for more.

that cured me.

i lived in that town for three years and when i wanted to play, took twenty to lose. when i won over twenty, pocketed that and played on my wins.

never had a problem with gambling. never lost more than twenty, a night entertainment and would always remember back to that first night with the gambler the the horrible feel and energy and draw of the disease

[LisaL]

127. Is there any way you can actually check on this?

[lumberjack_jeff]

128. When he comes looking for "investors", decline.

[ima_sinnic]

129. my bullshit meter just went through the roof (nt)

[crimsonblue]

132. No offense, but I doubt this is what he is really doing

I find in incredibly unbelievable to be making this much money from playing Blackjack, as you described it. I find it much more likely that he is on the take from the Casino do 'things', or maybe he actually has resorted to dealing, as as user posted above. I'd be very wary of his new profession. Maybe you should ask to go with him sometime, to verify it.

[Numba6]

137. I can do this until that check clears from the Nigerian finance ministry!

[Horse with no Name]

140. I sure wouldn't recommend this

Those cards can turn amazingly fast and the in the long run, the odds ALWAYS favor the casino.

[BlooInBloo]

141. (facepalm)

[mdmc]

145. mercy

[Earth Bound Misfit]

146. If your son has made that much, my advice to him is to

take that money and RUN...Very FAR & Very FAST...

He will eventually lose it all.

That's what casinos do.

[Kitty Herder]

147. Same casino every day?

Hasn't the management caught on and banned him yet?

[B Calm]

148. You sure he's not dealing drugs?

[Uzybone]

149. Doesn't pass the smell test

if my kid told me that was what they were doing to make $40K a month I'd start looking for the sugar daddy.

No casino will allow itself to get jacked like that, especially by someone who doesn't have a lot of money.

[pitohui]

150. i worked for a card counting team and, yeah, this kid is dealing/laundering drug money

this is a very weak attempt to make it sound like he has a legal source of income, believable only to parents or wife/girlfriend who want to be deceived

the blackjack "system" described bears no relationship to any winning system and since the game was "solved" in 1960 it isn't like it's a mystery how you win by counting cards, hole carding, etc -- if dad wanted to know the truth, a few minutes research into the real literature and the real winners would quickly reveal that what his son describes is a "system" that is mathematically proven to lose money -- in fact, this kind of betting system was discussed in the original thorpe's mathematics of gambling, where he shows why it HAS to lose money -- just as gravity HAS to make the apple fall down onto newton's head and not fly up into the sky

but there are none so blind as those who will not see

it will all end in tears but if you really wanted to know the truth, you wouldn't be posting on DU, you would have already investigated some of the widely available literature and then investigating some kind of intervention/attorney to help your son -- he's clearly involved in something that generates cash that he has to launder, and my best guess is drugs -- i guess at his age maybe he's a lost cause, in which case, you still need to protect yourself, if your wife takes drug money or the proceeds of drug money (what if he pays off your mortgage, what if he buys YOU the expensive car?) then there's a chance that when the hammer comes down, you'll be federal prison along with him

i know a man it happened to, his mom ended up in the slammer too because she received some of his money and was considered to have helped him launder it -- in his case, it was wildlife, not drug smuggling, but same song, second verse, right?

do not believe what i have said, stand up on your hind legs and research the open, easily available literature on how to win at blackjack -- then try it for yourself -- no one is making $40K a month profit at the seminole hard rock casino, NO ONE

protect yourself, protect your wife, and if you can, help your son, if you can't...well, he's a grown-up

but you must know in your heart that it's a lie because i notice you haven't tried to use this simple system yourself -- why? because you hate yourself, you hate money, and you want to lose and be broke your whole life? -- um, does that sound like you?

no, it's because you know he's lying and you don't want to burst your own bubble

seriously, if you really believed this crap, why wouldn't you be playing cards in a casino right now? if you think the game particularly "loose" at seminole hard rock casino, why would you be posting this crap on a public internet forum instead of selling the information for pay to stanford wong's "pager service?"

oh wait...i get it now...do YOU by chance happen to work for the good folk at the hard rock and do YOU by chance profit if more desperate gamblers come pouring through those doors?

[EFerrari]

152. Billy Burnett is a longtime DUer who has helped out on many projects.

That last bit is over the top, pithoui.

[WindRiverMan]

151. I made a side living at BlackJack a few years back!

To do it successfully you need to

1) Strictly and always play the odds, it's an even money game in Vegas, slight edge to the player in most Indian Casinos, counting cards can give you a real, but not huge advantage over the house.

2) Limit losing sessions - no catching up bets EVER

3) Know how to count cards

4) Not be so aggressive that you get kicked out of the Casino

5) Know how to count cards

7) Play single or double deck games only

8) Know how to count cards

9) Never accept the free drinks

10) Know how to count cards


If his strategy is truly as you suggest, he is going to lose. Playing until you lose one hand won't work. I used to play for exactly 25 minutes, $25 dollar hands with the following exceptions. If I got up $400, I was done. If I was down $250 I was done. Played every day and made a nice little sum of money. I finally gotted banned from the Caisno, but it took them over a year to do it.

EDIT And no, counting cards is not illegal if you do it in your head. If you use a device - well that is different.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

153. Counting cards is not illegal period, but casinos can 86 you for any reason including

"you're too lucky/win too much". It doesn't matter if you count cards in your head, if the casinos deduce that you are in fact counting cards, or using ANY strategy, cheating or not, that causes you to consistently win, they can bar you. The laws in all places where they have casinos allow them to do this.

Card counting is not cheating.

All casinos have to do is identify you as someone who is consistently winning over time, they will be interested in trying to figure out your method so they can identify any confederates you might have working with you, but they don't need to know how you are winning in order to 86 you. Just that you ARE winning.

And once you are 86'ed from one casino these days, you are very likely to end up in a database that most or all casinos use, including facial recognition software to nail you right as you enter the casino.

If the OP's son was truly bringing in those kind of winnings from Hard Rock Seminole, not even one of the Vegas or Atlantic City biggies, no way he wouldn't get noticed and 86'ed right away.