A Placid North Dakota Asks, Recession? What Recession?

[question everything]

(May have been posted, but with the continuation of job losses, also among DUers, perhaps someone may benefit)

The New York Times


December 6, 2008
A Placid North Dakota Asks, Recession? What Recession?
By MONICA DAVEY

FARGO, N.D. — As the rest of the nation sinks into a 12th grim month of recession, this state, at least up until now, has been quietly reveling in a picture so different that it might well be on another planet. The number of new cars sold statewide was 27 percent higher this year than last, state records through November showed. North Dakota’s foreclosure rate was minuscule, among the lowest in the country. Many homes have still been gaining modestly in value, and, here in Fargo, construction workers can be found on any given day hammering away on a new downtown condominium complex, complete with a $540,000 penthouse (still unsold, but with a steady stream of lookers).

While dozens of states, including neighboring ones, have desperately begun raising fees, firing workers, shuttering tourist attractions and even abolishing holiday displays to overcome gaping deficits, lawmakers this week in Bismarck, the capital, were contemplating what to do with a $1.2 billion budget surplus. And as some states’ unemployment rates stretched perilously close to the double digits in the fall, North Dakota’s was 3.4 percent, among the lowest in the country.

(snip)

North Dakota’s cheery circumstance — which economic analysts are quick to warn is showing clear signs that it, too, may be in jeopardy — can be explained by an odd collection of factors: a recent surge in oil production that catapulted the state to fifth-largest producer in the nation; a mostly strong year for farmers (agriculture is the state’s biggest business); and a conservative, steady, never-fancy culture that has nurtured fewer sudden booms of wealth like those seen elsewhere (“Our banks don’t do those goofy loans,” Mr. Theel said) and also fewer tumultuous slumps.

As it happens, one of the state’s biggest worries right now is precisely the reverse of most other states: North Dakota has about 13,000 unfilled jobs and is struggling to find people to take them... State officials and private companies have begun looking elsewhere to recruit workers, including traveling in October to Michigan, where tens of thousands of workers have been laid off, and, this month, holding an “online job fair,” anything to lure people to a place that is, at least for now, removed from the deep financial dismay — if also just plain removed.

(snip)

In truth, economic analysts said North Dakota has already begun showing some of the painful ripples seen elsewhere. Some manufacturing companies here have lately made temporary job cuts as orders for products have dropped nationally. Shrinking 401(k)’s — “201(k)’s,” some here grump — are no bigger here than anywhere else. And, most of all, drops in oil prices and farm commodity prices are sure to sink local fortunes, experts said. An economist at Moody’s Economy.com recently warned that conditions in North Dakota had “slowed measurably in recent months, and the state is now at risk of being dragged into recession.” In an interview, Glenn Wingard, the economist, described North Dakota as “an outlier” up to now in a broad, national slump.

(snip)



http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/06/us/06dakota.html

[bluestateguy]

1. They probably never had a real estate boom in the first place

which is a good thing in hindsight.

[DCKit]

2. Great. Now they're going to have immigration issues to deal with...

as people flock in from other states. But, oh, those winters.

[question everything]

4. You get used to it.

And, I'd rather have snow storm than ice and sleet and be without power for more than a week, as it is now in Kentucky. Interesting that many people from Minnesota and, perhaps, the Dakotas, retire to Kentucky and to Tennessee for the milder winter.

[uppityperson]

3. Housing did drop in the last yr. Parent sold house in Fargo for

10% less than would have if had sold it the yr before. Still, it is more affordable to live there than many places. If you can stand the conservativismness of the place. And the hot humid mosquito summers which balance off the cold windy snowy winters.

[question everything]

5. People in many parts of the country can only wish for a 10% drop (nt)

[WI_DEM]

6. Nothing new, some states feel the effect more than others. ND is one of the few lucky ones.