Some (slightly) optimistic news from the Staffing/Recruiting Industry

[MANative]

My (tiny) business provides consulting services to the staffing industry - the folks who, in the absence of company HR departments, fill jobs at every level of the economy. The last several months have been just brutal for any staffing business, with the one exception of healthcare positions, which have continued to grow. There is still contraction happening in most areas (job sector and geographic) but there is one bright spot that has started to emerge, and where a recovery appears to be already starting.

That bright spot is the Mortgage industry. Not terribly surprising in that it was among the first to get hit with major job cuts. For example, Wells Fargo has just announced that they are intending to fill 1600 new jobs. My clients are starting to see other firms sneaking back into this sector as well. One of the major reasons for this development, as cited by my clients, is President Obama's (God, that still makes me giggle happily!) stimulus package, and his stated intentions for both that program and for the remaining TARP funds. My national clients seem to be seeing a bottom within the next 2 to 4 months, with slow recovery beginning by the end of the 2nd quarter. Job fill inquiries have started to see slight upticks in comparison to the screeching halt that has happened over the last 4 months. The staffing industry is a strong indicator of the direction of the economy, and is nearly universally the first segment to see concrete evidence of upturns, as measured by job fill requests.

[terisan]

1. Us this an ad for Geithner's Next Big Ban Bailout Proposal ?

[MANative]

2. Uh, no. Simply a report of

what I am hearing from my clients. They are in the trenches, and see what companies are looking for before it shows up in actual jobs reports.

[Still Sensible]

3. Not unwelcome, but I believe misleading optimism

the other day it was reported that existing home sales were actually up month over month for the first time in a while. If more people are buying then it stands to reason the mortgage industry would show the same thing. I also suggest that there are probably some people with very good credit refinancing with the low rates right now.

As for home buying showing that increase, I believe all that is happening is that with the plunge in housing prices, many people with means (and investors) are gobbling up bargains. This was predictable.

It doesn't mean the housing market is making a comeback yet. I expect they'll be a lot of bargains gobbled up in the next couple months before we really see any recovery in the housing market.

[MANative]

4. I agree that it's not a "housing recovery" yet...

Pending home sales for the month also showed an increase, at a little over 6%, which was also substantially better than expected. There is undoubtedly a big chunk of inventory to work through before there is real recovery in the housing market. But even those bargains will generate an increase in mortgage activity, and a need to staff up to meet that demand. The housing sector can't begin to see true recovery until that inventory is decreased, but the decrease is an indicator of recovery to come. It's the leading edge, without which there's nothing.

[girl gone mad]

5. so the mortgage industry, which helped cause the crisis..

by enriching themselves through lax lending programs are going to be saved by our tax dollars?

Great.

[cally]

7. Housing led the growth during the last decade

Part of the financial turmoil is caused by the housing bubble bursting. Prices have fallen and foreclosures rise. A leading indicator of an economic recovery would be an increase in home sales.

[cally]

6. thanks for posting this

It will be interesting to see if the trend you are experiencing continues.