Florida can't keep up with concealed weapons permit requests

[babylonsister]

Florida can't keep up with concealed weapons permit requests

BY STEVE BOUSQUET
Herald/Times Tallahassee Bureau


TALLAHASSEE -- People in Florida are fearful of the economic future, and one way they are coping is by buying guns.

The state office that issues concealed weapons permits is buried under a backlog of 95,000 applications, and doesn't have enough money in its budget to do the job. A legislative budget panel is being asked to approve a midyear budget transfer of nearly $4 million to catch up to the demand for permits.

''People are getting scared,'' said Agriculture Commissioner Charles Bronson. ``The economy is scaring them. They don't want their houses broken into.''

Bronson's Cabinet agency includes the Division of Licensing that processes weapons permit applications. Figures released by Bronson's office show that it issued 75,679 permits in 2007 and 86,269 in 2008.

Applications spiked dramatically in December and January, with a 42 percent increase in the past 1 ½ months. Overall, from fiscal 2003-04 to 2007-08, the state saw a 91 percent increase in permit applications.

more...

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/florida/story/909557.html

[TWiley]

1. The murder rate will go through the roof.

[jmg257]

2. Probably not.

[TWiley]

3. oh .... what will it do then ..... go down?

[jmg257]

4. Depends on how the economy goes, the number of males of certain ages in the

population, how Florida treats people with criminal histories, etc...relevant things like that.

It will probably do not much of anything at all, but most likely will NOT go "through the roof".

[TWiley]

7. road rage with a pistol is not a pretty sight

[jmg257]

9. Neither is my mother-in-law in the morning. What's your point?

[TWiley]

13. The point is that guns tend to increase the level of violence.

Take road rage for example. The violence would be giving someone the finger. Add a gun to the mix, and the violence level can drastically increase.

The same is true of assualts. A black eye and a fat lip gets turned into murder if a gun is handy.

[jmg257]

15. Sure, alot of things COULD happen. But history shows it doesn't. Not with regards to guns anyway.

[TWiley]

18. How many gunshot wounds including deaths in the US per anum are there?

Your reasoning is questionable

[krispos42]

20. And if guns went away?

Would the total number of dead change, or just the portion that died of bullet wounds?

[TWiley]

22. The total number of dead would decrease

how many deaths due to gunshots per year are there? hmmm?

[krispos42]

26. a little over 30,000

~12,000 are homicides, ~18,0000 are suicides, and a couple hundred each of justifiable homicides and accidents.




Maybe you can explain the green line in this diagram if you're so sure that less guns=less homicides






Keep in mind that the UK banned and confiscated "assault weapons" back in'89 and banned and confiscated handguns back in '97.

[jmg257]

23. About 30,000 deaths. used to know rough injury numbers, I need see if I can dig them up...

[jmg257]

27. Probably around 100,000 injuries - maybe more these days(?)

[jmg257]

33. Here are some stats that might help....

Year--Mdr Rate--Firearm Sales (millions)
-----------------------------------------
1985--7.9--$1,548
1986--8.6--$1,647
1987--8.3--$1,667
1988--8.4--1,810
1989--8.7--1,777
1990--9.4--1,602
1991--9.8--1,859
1992--9.3--1,829
1993--9.5--2,095

Interesting trend, but then...


YEAR-----TAX-----VC RATE----Mrd Rte---Murders---- Firearms
***---($,000)----(100K)-----(100K)------#----------%
-----------------------------------------------------------------
1992----139,652----757.7----9.3
1993----124,215----747.1----9.5
1994----139,990----713.6----9.0
1995----184,302----684.5----8.2
1996----157,816----636.6----7.4
1997----150,803----611.0----6.8-----15,837----67.7%
1998----158,383----567.6----6.3-----14,276----64.8%
1999----167,448----523.0----5.7-----13,011----65.2%
2000----197,840----506.5----5.5-----13,230----65.5%
2001----175,959----504.5----5.6-----14,061----63.22%
2002----205,025----494.4----5.6-----14,263----66.8%
2003----193,420----475.0----5.7-----14,465----66.9%
2004----214,987----465.5----5.5-----14,121----66%
2005----------------469.2----5.6-----16,692----68%
2006----------------473.5----5.7-----17,034----67.9%
*The violent crime rates have indeed gone up slightly again in '07, down in '08.

(NOTES: The TAX column represents total excise tax on firearms and ammo sales, when broken out, the best indicator of total gun sales. The crime figures are from the FBI, the TAX figures from BATF. ALso, while the number of guns and gun owners has increased, the percenatge of gun-owning Americans has decreased slightly the last couple years)

Please notice that as firearms sales continue to rise, violent crime (VC) rates, and murder rates DROPPED steadily for 10 YEARS - 1994-2004. Also notice that the percentage of firearms used by criminals to commit murder is basically unchanged, despite the estimated "3.5 Million new guns every year".

"The 5-year trend (2006 compared with 2002) indicated that violent crime decreased 0.4 percent. For the 10-year trend (2006 compared with 1997) violent crime fell 13.3 percent."

[TWiley]

40. I think the drop in murer rates is due to other factors

Like you pointed out already. Poverty, hopelessness, frustration, anger, despair, job loss, home loss, and all sorts of other things that were not typically present during low gun violence years.

Now, bring back the harshness of a deep recession and add to the mix many more guns. My statistical prediction is that we will see an increase in gun violence. Having a gun handy when people are distraught increases the probability that a gun crime (even suicide) will result.

On Edit: Abortion also has a statistical impact on the lower crime rates as prospective mothers tend to know what is beyond their ability of cope. Many criminals come from homes that simply did not have the structure or means of supporting a family.

also on edit ..... thank you for the data.

[jmg257]

44. Seriously, you could be right. I hope not, but if things get nasty, it could be real bad.

I tell you what, I will be REAL glad I have my guns then. They will keep ME safer!

[TWiley]

47. well, I cannot argue with that.

your gun may, in fact, keep you safer, but my comment was only ment to say that if you decide to use it, no matter what the reason, then the gun violence statistic just went up another click.

[jmg257]

49. Ahh - but not the "murder" statistic! Just picking I know, but it IS an important distinction.

[TWiley]

55. yes, this is not an anti-gun argument.

It is only a statistical probability argument.

Murder (for example) by gunshot is usually a high stress situation + a firearm.

We have high stress.
Add more firearms
The likelyhood of an incident (legal or otherwise) increases.

[jmg257]

56. Agreed. And Hey - Thanks for disgussing this! We will see, I guess! Cheers!

[TWiley]

59. and .......... thank you as well jmg257 !

[jmg257]

37. And stats for CCW...

The following from a study done by a Univ of Pittsburgh group "An evaluation of state firearms regulations and homicide suicide rates"...

Now - 1st thing, while looking at gun laws, they compare "homicide" and "firearm homicide" rates - NOT "murder", "gun related murder", or other gun related crimes, so what exactly they were trying to prove escapes me; they mention however the attempt to study 'the benefits of shall issue laws enacted with the goal of curtailing fiream deaths'...

BUT ANYWAY, from their Table 2:

***
"Rates per 100,000...
Firearm Homicides {with shall issue law}: 5.00
Firearm Homicides {w/o shall issue law} : 5.90
All Homicides {rate with shall issue law} : 7.5
All homicides {rate w/o shall issue law} : 8.99

Summary Point 3::"A "shall issue" law that permits the carrying of a handgun in an unrestricted fashion may be associated with an increase in homicide rates."
****

But the numbers...THEIR number right there...BOTH "w/ shall issue" homicide rates were lower.

And from Table 4 Suicides

*****
"Rates per 100,00...
Firearm Suicides {with shall issue law}: 9.70
Firearm Suicides {w/o shall issue law} : 10.20
All Suicides : 14.5
All Suicides :14.5

Summary point 4: "Little evidence was observed that any of the laws evaluated (they include legal age 21 laws) were associated with a significant reduction in either firearm homicide or firearm suicide rates."
****


GREAT, but what about the fact that...
The charts - THEIR CHARTS - show a reduction in not only Firearm Homicides, but all homicides AND a reduction in firearm suicides with shall issue laws vs. w/o shall issue laws.

Anyway, with regards to this thread, there are no substantial changes due to more guns via CCW.

[jmg257]

43. And another agreeing study...

Publication: Hemenway, David. "The Public Health Approach to Motor Vehicles, Tobacco, and Alcohol, with Applications to Firearms Policy." Journal of Public Health Policy. 2001; 22:381-402.

Effect on homicide of gun carrying laws

We analyzed the effect on homicide of changes in state-level gun carrying laws using pooled cross-sectional time-series data for 50 states from 1979-1998.

Major findings: There was no statistically significant association between changes in concealed carry laws and state homicide rates. The finding was consistent across a variety of models.
Publication: Hepburn, Lisa; Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deborah; Hemenway, David. The Effect of Nondiscretionary Concealed Weapon Carrying Laws on Homicide." Journal of Trauma. 2004; 56:676-681.

[krispos42]

17. "Can"

The people that can get a CCW permit aren't the type of person that goes into a rage on a regular basis.


And regarding assaults... there's no way beforehand to tell how they're going to turn out... black eye and busted lip, or PTSD, neck injuries, and disabled.

[Hangingon]

42. We had lots of predictions of gun/road rage evetns in Texas -

they didn't happen with CHLs. There are plenty of gang auto shootings. I'll bet you those guys don't have CHLs.

[TWiley]

53. Just for the sake of this argument .....

Take "legality" out of the equation for a moment. There are plenty of shootings, including gang auto shootings. If someone has a legal CHL, and shoots someone who does not have one, (or vice-versa) then the gun violence statistic just went up.

The point is that gun related violent crimes is related to socioeconomic factors AND the handy presence of a firearm. Remove one or the other and the probability of a violent gun incident decreases. Now, increase BOTH factors and the probability increases.

Fact: harsh socio-economic times are present

Now, if more weapons are handy, regardless of permits, then the statistical probability of gun violence will also go up.

[Lost in CT]

5. Why would it go up... these are law abiding Floridians not criminals. nt

[TWiley]

6. hmmm what would happen if more guns were put into Iraq?

are you saying that guns make society safer?

[Lost in CT]

10. Everyone has a chainsaw in they're garage. Just a lack of will

to use it to kill people keeps the chainsaw murders down.

[TWiley]

12. your logic is false ..... guns do not equal chain saws

There are perhaps 100,000 deaths due to gunshots for every death due to a chainsaw.

so, if guns don't make society more dangerous, then they make society safer?

[Selatius]

30. Most of those deaths are due to guns used in the commissioning of a crime.

CCW permits are rigorous, at least they are in states that have enacted them. They aren't issued to everybody who simply puts an application for one. If you have anything on your record at all, you are denied one. The ones you have to worry about don't give a damn what the law says. They're getting their guns from the black market, regardless if the state even issues CCW permits. Washington, D.C., is a prime example of a city that banned guns yet has one of the highest murder rates in the nation, many commissioned with guns bought illegally.

The main point is that typically speaking, socio-economic conditions such as unemployment rate, level of education, race relations, the ease of moving up the income ladder, etc. tend to be big factors going into the murder rate as well. Florida's murder rate would skyrocket if the US entered the Second Great Depression.

[TWiley]

34. Not the legal ban of handguns ..... the simple presence of them

Toss legality out the window for a moment. D.C. is dangerous because there are lots of guns in the city. It is not safer because there are lots of guns in the city, it is more dangerous.

[Selatius]

35. Generally speaking, I disagree. Switzerland has the highest per capita gun ownership rates in Europe

In fact, Switzerland, in terms of private ownership of firearms, would lead the world except for the fact that the United States beats even that. They boast murder rates about 5 times less than that of the US yet have almost as many guns on a per capita basis.

As I said previously, the murder rates are affected by socio-economic factors as well, not just the presence of guns, and in Switzerland, they have a cogent program to combat poverty and economic inequality, which are major factors in determining crime rates.

[TWiley]

45. maybe you missed my meaning

Quote: As I said previously, the murder rates are affected by socio-economic factors as well, not just the presence of guns, and in Switzerland, they have a cogent program to combat poverty and economic inequality, which are major factors in determining crime rates. End Quote:

I do agree. I am saying that when a gun is handy under harsh or extremely stressful situations, the probability of gun violence increases. Switzerland does not have the harshness of the raw capitalistic society that america does.

It does not matter which is the last to increase .... the stress or the gun count. When they both increase and reach a critical limit, then gun violence becomes more probable.

A simple altercation may only involve a black eye unless a gun is handy.

[Selatius]

54. Well, the statistics don't really take into account emotional states.

They really only take into account the facts of a crime. As far as I know, there has been no comprehensive study on the emotional states of individuals involved in violent situations with firearms. Maybe you are right. Maybe you are wrong. It is difficult to determine simply because peer reviewed studies I'm aware of have not really explored that arena.

As far as Switzerland's economy goes, they're a capitalistic society as well. They simply have a more generous economic safety net than the US, but I'm not in a position to say Switzerland does any better as far as spousal abuse, rape, racism, alcohol abuse, drug use, etc. All of those situations are bad when guns are involved regardless if we're talking about a mixed economy that leans towards corporatism, such as the US, or a mixed economy that leans towards social democracy, such as Switzerland.

[TWiley]

58. well, I think we would both agree

If you created an identical socio-economic condition (including education levels) in both America Switzerland and armed both populations identically, then you would likely have the same statistical result.

This is my point. We are not Switzerland, they would be more like us if they were more like us. (is that circular?)

[Selatius]

66. I would be very wary to agree with such a statement as a matter of statistical research.

I've had to to get involved with statistical research as part of the economic portion of my studies as well as for the business portion of my studies, and I would have to say that I'm uncomfortable endorsing such a statement.

Different populations have different mores and traditions and cultural emphasis on certain behaviors. If Switzerland's economy were exactly modeled after the US economy, it would not necessarily follow that violent deaths due to firearms would be similar. The fallacy a lot of people get themselves into is thinking that other people collectively behave like we do when placed in the same situation. It's not necessarily true, especially if that culture has had a totally different experience from our own.

[krispos42]

52. It's more dangerous because ONLY criminals have them

That's the crux of the issue.


If all of a sudden DC changed its laws to match those of Vermont, the criminals would not become significantly more armed, but their victim pool would be.

[TWiley]

57. Ok, lets assume that you are correct.

Quote: If all of a sudden DC changed its laws to match those of Vermont, the criminals would not become significantly more armed, but their victim pool would be. End Quote

Again, you prove my point. The victim pool among criminals increases. Therefore, there is an INCREASE.

I am not making a distinction between legal or illegal. I am simply saying that it would result in an increase of incidents which you also agree with.

[krispos42]

64. I meant "their victim pool would be significantly more armed"

Sorry for any confusion... :hi:

[jmg257]

11. What he is possibly saying is that the rate of crime, and violent crimes,

is not effected by the number of guns, nor the number of CCW permits.

Some times the crime rates go up, sometimes they go down (even though the number of guns is always on the rise.). Murder isn't anything "special", and usually follows along with other violent crimes. There are MUCH more relevant affects then the # of guns.

Studies also show that there is typically no change in the rates, or of suicides, etc., even when the number of CCWs increase, & often there is a SLIGHT drop.

[TWiley]

16. So, High Crime areas are where NO guns are present

and low crime areas are where the most guns are?

So, a depressed inner city area in the United States where guns are plentiful is safer than a country like Brittan where there are no guns?

[jmg257]

19. Depends on what end of the gun you are on, doesn't it?

And who said anything about "NO guns" - besides you I mean?

Thought we were talking CCW permits in Florida, and an increase in guns over-all. At least I was.

[TWiley]

24. oh, what happened? You said the murder rate would not go up.

and this discussion followed.

[jmg257]

28. Exactly. And I stand by that. The murder rate will most likely not go through the roof.

Because there are NO stats that say it will.
In fact, it will not likely change at all, MAY even go down a bit, but there are much more relevant factors that will decide that.

[TWiley]

32. Frustration and anger + a pistol tends to = murder

Raise the frustration and anger level and toss more pistols into the mix and the result will more likely be an increase in gun violence.

[jmg257]

39. Maybe. Maybe not. Over-all "more pistols" doesn't seem to make a difference.

[TWiley]

60. not all by themselves ... no .... but add "caught in the act adultery" ...

[krispos42]

21. Vermont's pretty quiet... Chicago isn't.

I guess Vermont is gun-free and Chicago is armed to the teeth?

[TWiley]

25. you got it backwards

you are saying that Chicago is gun free and Vermont is armed to the teeth. Read my post again

YOU JUST PROVED MY POINT !

[krispos42]

29. But Chicago has outlawed hanguns

While in Vermont carrying concealed does not require any kind of permit at all. You just stick a gun in your pocket!


It's almost as if... there are social and economic conditions that drive crime far more powerfully than hardware.

Hmmm...

[TWiley]

31. So, Chicago is dangerous because there are NO guns?

I would suspect that the leading cause of death by murder would involve a gun in Chicago

[krispos42]

38. Not possible

Chicago has a handgun ban and long gun registration. Ergo, there is no way the criminal element in Chicago can aquire guns.



I believe that the criminals in Chicago are in fact using pointy metal rods of, say, 9mm diameter to kill their victims and the police are just mistakenly calling them gunshot wounds!


:crazy:



The gun laws of Chicago have accomoplished exactly what they set out to accomplish: discouraging and prohibiting people that follow the laws from owning handguns.

Unfortunately for the people of Chicago, it's not the people that follow the laws that are the problem.

[TWiley]

61. well, you were saying that it was safer ... not me

Just because they are "illegal" does not mean they do not exist there. The 9mm diameter holes are likely gunshots and not arrow holes.

I am looking at this statistically, and not legally. You will not stop gun murders by issuing permits by the way. And, I believe you already know that as well.

[TWiley]

62. hey .... thanks for the discussion BTW .... butt, I gotta go now.

[Hugabear]

36. You're the same one who was defending that POS racist NY Post cartoon

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x5081602#5082041

And yes, the more and more CCW permits that are allocated, the higher the chances are that one of them will be used to kill someone.

[jmg257]

46. Nope. Wasn't me. I wasn't defending the cartoon. Just explaining why it wasn't necessarily racist.

But thanks for guessing!

"Chances" are a wonderful thing, but of course FACTS are more important when discussing such things as murder vs CCW.

Read posts with those facts above, and you will see why.

[Hugabear]

48. Then it's a fact that the more CCW permits, the higher the chance of them being used in a crime

It's a matter of simple statistics and probability. The more guns flooding the streets, the more people walking around with CCW permits, the higher the likelihood that one of these will use their "legal" guns to commit a crime.

[jmg257]

50. Hmm...OK - yes I agree with that...the "chance". But the actual numbers HAVEN'T shown this -yet.

The number of guns, or CCWs don't seem to make a difference, either way on crime rates, violent crime rates, or murder rates.

Too many other more relevant issues do affect the numbers of incidents, but not "guns".

As TWiley says upthread, could be things change now with the economy tanking...we will see, I guess.

[krispos42]

14. Yeah, they kept saying then when Florida first pasted CCW years ago

Hasn't happened, ain't going to happen.

Most murders, I believe, are committed by people that are ineligable for a pistol permit anyway.



The people that can get CCW permits are the squeaky-clean of society. Therefore them being armed does not increase the likelyhood of them deciding to shoot somebody over something stupid.

[ThomWV]

8. I imagine applications are up everywhere. It took months to get mine.

And that was a couple of years a go. At least I don't have to renew it until 2011.

[TheCowsCameHome]

41. We are so screwn..........

[Aristus]

51. I'm staying away from Florida for the foreseeable future.

Desperate people with concealed guns...not good for tourism... :hide:

[L0oniX]

63. I'm also taking the CWP course in a few weeks. If you just want protection...

for your home, you don't need a CWP. CWP is for when you want to carry it on you in your car or generally out in public. Better be careful though because you definatly don't want anyone to know that you have a gun on you. With a CWP it is your duty to keep the gun totally concealed at all times unless you are being threatened with violence.

[RagAss]

65. Confused by Bronson's quote....."they don't want their houses broken into"????

You don't need a permit to keep a gun in your home.....These people want to carry while walking around in public. The guy is in charge of permits and he doesn't know that?