Here's what's keeping us from being in another Great Depression now.

[bulloney]

80 years ago, the GD was preceded by depressing farm commodity prices.

Today, farm prices are relatively strong, but for how long? If and when we get back to $2/bushel corn, $2/bushel wheat, $5/bushel soybeans and corresponding prices in livestock, the economic shit will hit the fan.

You can only create new wealth from a few things and agriculture is one of them. Not these ponzi pyramid schemes they've concocted on Wall Street. If producers of agriculture and other raw materials are receiving a fair price for their products the multiplier effect is tremendous. Right now, grain prices are relatively strong. But if and when we return to the depressed prices of the 1990s, this multiplier effect will be stifled and we'll really be thrown for a loss economically.

Just my two cents worth.

[liberal N proud]

1. 80 years ago the US was a agricultural based economic system

for the past 40 years we have been a manufacturing based economy, that has collapsed. We are now entering into a service based economy which produces NOTHING.

How can an economy that produces nothing sustain it' self?

[FreakinDJ]

10. An economy that "Produces Nothing" can not sustain itself

The only thing we've produced in the last 8 years is "Bad Loans"

I don't know what Bush did, but the "Exodous of Heavy Manufacturing" switched into High Gear in 2002 and continued right up to 2009. Entire manufacturing plants have been shut down, disassembled and shipped to China. More importantly the machines that make the machines that produce products have been shipped overseas.

[Cary]

2. "You can only create new wealth from a few things and agriculture is one of them."

Why?

What is "new wealth"?

[bulloney]

4. It's renewable products.

In agriculture's case, the producer receives a price and the product can be converted to another product that adds wealth. For corn, it can be livestock feed, human food products or ethanol. For soybeans, it can be livestock feed, cooking oils or a number of inedible products made from soybean oil.

It's a tangilbe product with tangible value-added products, unlike the derivatives and other bullshit they've concocted on Wall Street.

[madokie]

9. Just in case

There is a soybean processing plant here in our Industrial Park that processes the meal after its been processed at other locations to remove the oils and such. All the product they make, convert or whatever the right term is is for human consumption. The last time I was doing any work there I was told that a very large percentage of what we eat everyday has their product in it. It was and is the cleanest industrial plant that I've ever seen too, I mean shiny, spic and span, clean too. They have several 200' X 400' or so ponds where they send the waste to that are covered with huge rubber mats with the methane gas thats created fed back to the plant for their own use in the processing. If that plant is any indication of how basic food product is made here in America then you can rest assured that it is clean and healthy as humanly possible. Soy meal is in almost everything, except for the meat, that we eat.
just in case :-)

[Cary]

18. I don't buy that.

No pun intended.

I could raise a million arguments why agriculture isn't that great. For one, it produces commodities which would tend to have low profit margins. For another, if we didn't have agriculture we would not have been able to over populate our planet and bespoil our environment the way we have. While I'm sure we're resourceful enough to find an even more effective way to trash our environment, and dumb enough to do it, that's not the point.

Third, agriculture has degraded and continues to degrade our environment as efficiently as most other activities. Forests and other ecosystems are scraped away to make room for agriculture. Agriculture run off pollutes our water. Many agricultural practices are inhumane and harmful. Even cow farts are harmful.

Fourth, why is a commoditized product more "value-added" than a service or an intangible product anyway? Would we be better off if we produced 10% more food, compared to an "intangible" like the know how to produce a 75 mpg vehicle? And is it the vehicle, per se that has "value"? Vehicles today have more computing power than an Apollo space capsule had just a few decades ago. Is it the plastic and steel that has the most value in today's cars, or is it the information that makes our cars run better, faster and longer?

I'm sorry but unless I'm missing something, you seem to me to be way off base. I do not mean to insult you. However this strikes a nerve for me because I have had endless nonsensical "discussions" with rightists when they give me stuff like this, that I find to be utter nonsense. Again, you might have something. I don't know. I am rather confused on this subject myself. I do tend to favor the idea of reversing the trend toward being less and less of an industrial economy, but I have some trouble understanding why. And, again, using pure emotion is, to me, a rightist's game.

I can see needing industry and agriculture as a means of diversifying and providing good jobs for certain people who need a way to make a good living through heavier lifting type jobs. But in terms of "value", I just don't see it.

[cliffordu]

20. You know the price of everything and the value of almost nothing, apparently.

[Cary]

22. Well, I know the value of making anti-intellectual, baseless assertions.

That's what rightists are all about.

[cliffordu]

24. Well....

You said:

"I could raise a million arguments why agriculture isn't that great. For one, it produces commodities which would tend to have low profit margins...."


What about the value to humans and the future of the fucking race??

Maybe looking for the maximum profit at all times is EXACTLY what got us here in the first place.


If profit is all you're concerned about then I would suggest you deal heroin.

Or automatic weapons.

[Cary]

26. I'm looking for where I said food was without value because of profits.

Funny. I can't find where I said that.

Why don't you address my actual arguments instead of setting up straw men and getting all pissy about it?

[RC]

5. Something tangible has to be produced or manufactured, then sold.

Shuffling money around (Wall Street) won't do it and paying someone to clean your house won't do it either.

[Cary]

19. This too is a conclusion.

How do you figure this?

[izquierdista]

6. Energy will be one of them

The modern lifestyle requires great inputs of energy, and if corn and wheat won't pay the bills on the farm, maybe solar, wind, and a few acres of switchgrass will.

[Thothmes]

3. 24 % unemployment rate comes to mind.

[FreakinDJ]

11. 13.9% - we're making headway on that 24% number already

Actual unemployment rate 13.9%: Merrill Lynch
http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090206/REG/902069980/-1/FWDailyAlert01

[woodwrite]

7. Bravo to this thread, Bulloney

I've heard about enough about the "stimulus" ... along with all the "purely-on-paper" schemes by which a bunch of unscrupulous corporate accounting types screwed us to the wall with them. Quite correct that agriculture represents one of America's still-viable means of making real money. You cannot create wealth out of thin air by shuffling paper, juggling the books and pulling the wool over everyone's eyes. Sooner or later you gotta manufacture or grow something which somebody else wants or needs.

[Bandit]

16. The main flaw in that Logic is that 80% of america's wealth is in the hands

of less than ten percent of the population. If the people are going to get any of that wealth it won't be by growing corn.

[FreakinDJ]

17. Beg to Differ – the potato ended Surfdom in Europe.

Yep that is right – a fucking potato

It allowed the surf farmers to grow enough food on their tiny plot of land to feed their family. There by effectively freeing them from the Landlords

[Cary]

23. Beg to differ with your beg to differ

The plague ended surfdom in Europe by eliminating the Malthusian conundrum. The plague literally lowered the supply of surfs making them more valuable and allowing them to leave and find more lucrative employment from others lords who would pay more for their services.

Maybe the plague has "value"?

[cliffordu]

25. Great band: The Surf Farmers.

Oh, wait, you meant the SERF farmers....

:rofl:

[Cary]

21. "If the people are going to get any of that wealth it won't be by growing corn."

I agree. It's a nice thought but isn't going to happen that way. There is a reason we progressed from an agrarian to an industrial society, and then from an industrial society to a post-industrial society, and then to whatever we are now. We didn't make that progression because the real "value" was in growing corn this whole time.

[D-Lee]

8. Milk is being dumped and milk cows sold for meat

Do you have some links, because farm prices are not strong in all areas.

Just asking ...

There is also some data indicating that small farming is actually on an upswing in many states, which makes it look as if small farming is a growing area of our US economy.

And it seems to me particularly foolish to subject these small farmers to the proposed system for farm animal identification -- see the Farm and Ranch Freedom Alliance web site (http://farmandranchfreedom.org/content/), which is one of the many websites objecting to proposed rules drafted by the Bush Administration. Many of the objections are that the proposed rules are workable only for large Agri Businesses.

[JCMach1]

12. Equivalent today would be a 'services' collapse

... oh wait a minute, that's basically happening as we speak...

[MadHound]

13. Hate to tell you this, but farm commodity prices are coming down

Corn has tanked after last year's ethanol boom. We have farmers and elevator operators hanging onto tons and tons of corn, hoping that the price will go up, but it won't. Ethanol plants have shut down and corn is now going for over half of what it went for last year at this time.

As corn goes, so does beef, pork and poultry, and if you've checked the prices for these, they're sinking too.

This year you will be seeing the prices of other commodities start to drop as farmers switch over from planting corn to planting wheat, soybeans, etc.

Just to let you know what's going on out here on the farm.

[Mr. Hyde]

14. Milk is $2/gallon here in Ohio. Eggs are .99/dozen. Farmers are tripping.

I see hundreds of thousands of dairy cows are being converted into hamburger because of this.

Dairy cows head for slaughter as milk prices sour
By TRACIE CONE – 4 days ago

TURLOCK, Calif. (AP) — Hundreds of thousands of America's dairy cows are being turned into hamburgers because milk prices have dropped so low that farmers can no longer afford to feed the animals.

Dairy farmers say they have little choice but to sell part of their herds for slaughter because they face a perfect storm of destructive economic forces. At home, feed prices are rising and cash-strapped consumers are eating out less often. Abroad, the global recession has cut into demand for butter and cheese exported from the U.S.

Prices for milk now are about half what it costs farmers to produce the staple, and consumer prices are falling. Unless the market can be bolstered, industry officials project that more than 1.5 million of the nation's 9.3 million milking cows could be slaughtered this year as dairy operators look to cut costs and generate cash.

"This could destroy our dairy infrastructure," said Mike Marsh, CEO of the United Western Dairymen trade association.

Three months ago, mature milkers would sell for $2,500 to another dairy, but with nobody buying, dairymen are selling them on the beef market for only $1,100 each.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iYU_1F-P1PoGgkJGfDG7NPd6EmoAD96CJJF00

[KharmaTrain]

15. The Difference Between 1929...3 Less Years Of Repugnicans

The market crash wasn't what made the depression as bad as it was. It was 3 years of Hoover making things worse with cutting federal spending and raising tarrifs. By then, all prices collapsed. Fortunately, we had this crash toward the end of the boooosh regime and while he did some damage, it's nowhere near what we saw in 1929 and hopefully the stimulus package and other moves by President Obama will keep this from being as long lasting and severe as what happened in the 30's.

As anyone who deals with commodities will tell you, NEVER bet on it unless you're prepared to lose. All it takes is a extra wet or dry spring and those prices can go sky high...and in a global economy reeling, this wouldn't be such as a good thing as these costs would be above and beyond what many could afford. As another poster mentioned, we'll probably see this market down as well as the full impact of the economic downturn still hasn't trickled into the agricultural world. Just wait until farmers attempt to borrow for planting or have their farms foreclosed on...stay tuned.