Republicans and the Pennsylvania Dilemma - what to do with Arlen Specter

[LynneSin]

Pennsylvania has definitely been a good state to democrats these past 10 years. The Keystone state went for Gore, Kerry and Obama (which his victory was in double digits), unseated right-wing poster boy Rick Santorum, returned the governor seat to the Democrats (and turned away Pittsburgh Football Legend Lynn Swann because he too was a right-winger) and even emptied out a few house seats despite the harsh redistricting by the then republican state congress. Pennsylvania is looking solid blue my friends.

Except with Arlen Specter.

Specter defies everything that has been wrong with the Republican party for one reason. He's a moderate that appeals to those moderates even as they start moving towards the left (and are happy to split votes like in 1992 going for Clinton and keeping Specter in office and 2004 going with Kerry but keeping Specter in office). Specter is also from Philadelphia and still has wide-spread popularity. He's commonplace on the local radio shows like WIP and various sporting events. Voter turnout in Philadelphia has been the key to the democratic success but tends to falter a bit when it comes to Arlen Specter.

So the Republican Dilemma is this.

Clearly the Republican party is not happy with Specter. He voted for the Stimulus bill and is showing signs that he might be one of the brokers to help Barack Obama get legislation thru the senate. President Obama doesn't need to make all 41 Republican Senators happy, just 2-3 to get the job done. And moderates like Specter along with Susan Collins & Olympia Snowe could end up benefiting from being the deciding votes for much of Obama's upcoming bills.

In 2004 Pat Toomey, a Rick Santorum clone, ran against Arlen Specter in the primaries and came dangerous close knocking Specter out of the race. However Pennsylvania trends have turned away from the right-wing ideologues in favor of moderates & progressives so the trends would probably not have Pat Toomey winning against the democratic nominee (Joe Hoeffel).

So the republican choices are painful - they could run Toomey or another lackey like him against Specter and possibly knock Specter off in the primaries. When just republicans vote in Pennsylvania the right-wing republicans have a strong chance of winning thanks to a "T-zone" section of the state that tends to resemble Kentucky more than Philly or Pittsburgh parts of PA. But to knock off Specter means putting that right-wing candidate up against a state that turns away those types of candidates in general elections which means you could get rid of Specter but ultimately turn the seat back over to the democrats.

It'll be interesting to see what happens in the Keystone state in 2010. It seems with Specter that the Republicans will either have to 'Put up or Shut Up'

[stray cat]

1. The dems need to replace republican radicals with republican moderates

Specter is a moderate that appeals to moderates and supports R&D. The dems should be happy with the moderates and work their butts off to get moderates to replace radicals. We need to let the radicals display just how out of touch they really are.

[LynneSin]

3. But ultimately the dems would rather have the seat

I mean if Specter runs he'll win but he has to win the primaries first before he can win the general election. The weakness for Specter is running in an election that is 'republicans-only'. But to remove Specter means putting the type of candidate on the ticket that Pennsylvanians have scorned now for 10 years.

[stray cat]

7. I have to admit Spector is a champion of scientific research more so than most dems

so I really like having him where he is - but thats my own bias of liking employment in my field. :hi:

[Chipper Chat]

2. Maybe Spector could pull a "Joe Lieberman"

if the pubs select a wingnut in the primary. Not that I want that, but if he wins he could caucus with the democrats.

[LynneSin]

4. I think if Specter was 10 years younger I could see him doing that

However the man is not in good health and unlike Connecticut, ther would be a republican candidate that would have strong appeal in Pennsylvania. Lieberman won because he was able to get the republican vote and some loyal moderate/democrats. Republicans didn't even bother funding the republican on the ticket.

However if Specter were to run an independant race he wouldn't have the republican vote except some moderates and he definately won't have the democrat vote especially if a strong democratic candidate were to get the nomination.

It's not like I'm saying we want Specter for another 6 years - if anything we democrats are hoping that republicans gun for Specter in the primaries because they would hand the seat to the democrats.

Personally, and this is a bit morbid to say. My hope is if Specter wins the nomination, I don't think the man has 6 years left to live in him. He's in his 80s, has dealt with cancer recently and probably should just retire and enjoy the last years of his life. I know when the rumor was that Chris Matthews of MSNBC might run against Specter, I was thinking perhaps it would be best Specter just wins and then we replace him in a few years after he passes away with a decent and real democrat (btw, I can't vote in Pennsylvania, I'm from the state but live in Delaware now. I would never ever campaign for a republican at DU HOWEVER I would do everything in my powers to keep an idiot like Chris Matthews off the ticket.)

[PRETZEL]

5. My best guess scenario is that Sen. Specter

would be safe this cycle, premised on my belief that his health would allow him to continue. This will be his last go around. I think the Repub's would recongnize this and may not give a serious challenge in the primary knowing that his chances of re-election would be better than 50/50.

[LynneSin]

6. Try this scenario

Republicans don't bother with the senate race and let Specter run. Instead they dump all their money into the Governor race, which every 8 years tends to switch parties (Thornburg, Casey Sr, Ridge, Rendell). They get the Governor race then they can pick who replaces Specter if he happens to pass away during his term.

[PRETZEL]

11. That's very likely,

and may be their best bet.

[WI_DEM]

8. If he continues to be of assistance to Obama I doubt he will be a high priority

for the White House in 2010. On the other hand I think that New Hampshire, another state trending democratic, is ripe for the picking with Judd Gregg in a position to be knocked off.

[LynneSin]

9. Well we always want to get a democrat in any seat

But I think the money spent in Pennsylvania will be based on who wins the primaries

[WI_DEM]

10. True, but if S;pecter is a help to Obama don't expect that he will actively

campaign against Specter.