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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 12:34 AM
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Enter the Era of Engagement in Afghanistan and Pakistan
THE most relevant and universally proffered justification for our 'enduring', seemingly endless military aggression in Afghanistan is rooted in our nation's response to the 9-11 killings in our homeland. The specter of al-Qaeda (the accused) is manifested in the fugitives - suspected perpetrators and accomplices of the attacks alike - who were driven across the border by our invasion over seven years ago into the mountains of Pakistan.

The specter of al-Qaeda is also rooted in the individuals who were influenced in their resistance to our invasion of their homeland (and by the subsequent invasion and overthrow in Iraq) to provide a buffer, or safe haven of support and assistance to the once meager band of 9-11 thugs.

In December of 2001, then-Defense chief Rumsfeld touched down on the Afghan airport tarmac to express support for the head of the new Afghan government:

"The United States coveted no territory," he told Hamid Karzai. "We were here for the sole purpose of expelling terrorists from the country and establishing a government that would not harbor terrorism."

From that initial commitment (which Rumsfeld told troops at the Bagram air base would consist of a "relatively small force of 3,000 to 5,000 troops and would not include Americans) the U.S. mission in Afghanistan has mushroomed away from the hunt for bin-Laden and his associates on the ground and is developing into a full-force defense of the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan against the resistant effects of our country's bungling, flailing militarism.

The swelling ranks of individuals in Afghanistan and Pakistan who identify and ally with al-Qaeda and their Taliban supporters (still a relative minority) have allowed the U.S. to represent the defense of the two precarious governments against them as a defense akin to the original response to 9-11. The effort, however, is a tragic, self-perpetuating battle against the ghosts of resistance to our own opportunistic military advance on the Afghan and Pakistani homeland.

That grudging battle has devolved into what Army Gen. David McKiernan described this month as a 'stalemate'. In fact, a day after President Obama announced the troop increase for Afghanistan, McKiernan discounted the ultimate effect of NATO's military build-up:

"The outcome will not be decided militarily but politically, by the people who live in Afghanistan," he counseled. "I want to get to what I call the tipping point, where the lead for security is in Afghan units, police and army, and we increasingly are more in a training and mentoring role . . . I think you can have too many foreign forces in Afghanistan," he said.

President Obama acknowledged the limits of that military force as he announced a 'new era' of diplomacy in the Middle East. "In words and deeds, we are showing the world that a new era of engagement has begun," Obama told a joint session of Congress this week.

That call for diplomacy, however, was tempered with a nod by Mr. Obama to the escalating militarism of the last administration.

"We know that America cannot meet the threats of this century alone, but the world cannot meet them without America," he said. "We cannot shun the negotiating table, nor ignore the foes or forces that could do us harm."

"With our friends and allies, we will forge a new and comprehensive strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan to defeat Al-Qaeda and combat extremism," Obama said. "I will not allow terrorists to plot against the American people from safe havens half a world away."

That 'comprehensive strategy' is the subject of review by an 'Afghanistan-Pakistan Policy Task Force' which is tasked to report back to the president by the NATO summit in April. Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer and Brookings fellow, is co-chairing the review along with special envoy Richard Holbrooke and Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Michele Flournoy.

If the president's 'era of engagement' is to take root in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the State Dept. will have to emerge as more than the afterthought and support to military action that it had become in the last administration. From the actions of Sec. of State Clinton today, it appears that the agency is moving to make that diplomatic 'era' a reality.

In the wake of a cordial meeting between the leaders of Pakistan and Afghanistan, Sec. Clinton announced the intention to hold regular, trilateral meetings between the countries as she met with Afghan Foreign Minister Rangeen Dadfar Spanta and Pakistan's Shah Mahmood Qureshi.

Talks over the past three days "would have been valuable even if they had simply been bilateral," Clinton said. The meetings were "especially meaningful" because "we have all been working together," she told reporters.

The proposed State budget introduced Thursday would have an increase in funding of almost 10% for the agency and other international programs. From this fiscal year to 2014, the State Department’s budget will almost double, from $36.7 billion to $69.3 billion. The 2010 target is $51.7 billion.

Chairman of Senate Foreign Relations Committee John Kerry intends to introduce legislation to triple non-military aid to Pakistan. The initiative, sponsored jointly by Senators Kerry and Chuck Hagel, angles for $4-7 billion in immediate financial assistance.

Non-military aid has been included in the State budget for both countries “to revitalize economic development and confront the resurgence of the Taliban.” That funding will be crucial to realizing the administration's goal of moving beyond the destabilizing effects of the military assaults on the populations to attracting the citizens away from the influence of the militarized elements of resistance to NATO and the U.S..

Another part of that diplomatic effort will be challenged to further engage regional actors like Iran, China, Russia and India in providing the economic assistance and security that Afghanistan cannot provide on its own. However, we've yet to see an effective rallying of our allies - the revived coalition of which candidate Obama argued was essential to a successful resolution of the conflict and the stabilization of the region.

The new plan for Afghanistan which President Obama has under review will have to be bold in its commitment to providing the resources and political will to allow the diplomatic and humanitarian initiatives to achieve parity with the continuing grudging military mission against al-Qaeda - which will undoubtedly emerge in his rationale as paramount to proceeding with the entire enterprise.

If we are not successful in building up Afghanistan's economy and restoring the population to a reasonable level of subsistence and self-reliance with our economic and diplomatic initiatives we will be locked, indefinitely, in this self-perpetuating cycle of resistance and retaliation. Hopefully, the direction for Afghanistan and Pakistan decided on by the president after his review will reflect that priority; that 'era of engagement' that he envisions for the future.
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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 12:38 AM
Response to Original message
1. What if we are successful? That would be wonderful. nt
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 12:39 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. I'd like to hear the definition of that success
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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 12:50 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. There will never be 'success', but
maybe finding a way to quell the uprising, before it's too late?

Diplomacy, dare I venture to say that?

I don't think we will ever change Afghanistan, but do believe we can attempt to get out of there without mud on our face.
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 12:56 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. we agree
I'm encouraged by the diplomatic impetus of the administration that I outlined in the article. I'm still pessimistic about the prospect of the diplomatic moves taking precedence over the military actions, at least in the short term . . . but, I'm hopeful for the future.
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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 01:09 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. Wow.
If I knew how to freeze something for myself, I would. "We agree"? I kid, my dear friend.
We both want the same thing. I'm hoping. :hug:
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leftstreet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 12:40 AM
Response to Original message
3. How is success measured in Drugasia and Pipelineistan?
Edited on Fri Feb-27-09 12:47 AM by leftstreet
:shrug:

K&R for a thoughtful post.
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 10:54 AM
Response to Reply #3
13. I think some sort of pipeline deal is inevitable
Edited on Fri Feb-27-09 10:57 AM by bigtree
. . . given the Afghan president's former interest in that project and the thawing of relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Also, there is much more stability in the former Soviet provinces and diplomatic relations should allow some sort of future agreement to begin construction on a pipeline.

Outside of the almost certain militarization which will surround such a project, I have some sympathy for Afghanistan who really has no major industry to sustain their population. Pakistan, as well would benefit from the economics of the goo.

We contemplated and supported, in the Clinton era, the Taliban as protection for pipeline workers. There is great folly surrounding the prospect of such an enterprise, but I don't see any way that the U.S. and others are going to abandon their goal of bypassing Russia to transport the province's oil.

Unocal, was a major player in a January 1998 agreement with the Taliban to build a natural gas pipeline across Afghanistan. The energy company led an international consortium deal to build a $ 2 billion, 1,275 km-long, natural-gas pipeline from Dauletabad in Turkmenistan to Karachi in Pakistan, via the Afghan cities of Herat and Kandahar, crossing into Pakistan near Quetta. (http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/features/fex20867.htm)

The Clinton administration and the Pakistani Inter Services Agency had developed a strategy in which the Taliban would provide 'stability' in managing the tribal rivalries that had prevented the pipeline from proceeding without sabotage. In 1998 the New York Times reported that, ". . . Unocal opened offices in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan and Turkmenistan. To help it sell the pipeline project to the many governments involved, Unocal hired senior United States diplomats like the former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. (http://portland.indymedia.org/en/2002/01/6919.shtml)

Problems began with the Taliban's capture of the Afghan capital, Kabul, in September 1996. Unocal initially took a positive view of the movement.

In October 1997, Zalmay Khalilzad (later envoy to Karzai's regime and then ambassador to Iraq), and Unocal executive Marty Miller testified before a Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee, touting the "economic benefits that a set of pipelines from Central Asia can bring to the Afghan people if it is able to pass through the country." (http://www.thedubyareport.com/iraq2.html)

Khalilzad met with Taliban representatives in 1997 in Houston during the pipeline negotiations. He wrote in a Washington Post article that, "The Taliban does not practice the anti-U.S. style of Muslim fundamentalism practiced by Iran. We should be willing to offer recognition and humanitarian assistance and to promote international economic reconstruction. It is time for the United States to 'reengage' the Taliban."

He changed his view of the Taliban a great deal since that statement, especially in the wake of the terrorist bombings of 9-11 . . .

It would suit the U.S. corporatocracy's short term agenda to isolate Russia and China and forestall the coming shift in energy resources away from the U.S. as Russia and China bargain for a bigger share of the world's oil.

Russia is rumored to be seeking the same defensive shift in oil partnerships which would favor countries the U.S. would rather they not associate with, but are more compliant to their interests than an increasingly arrogant America. The Bush regime saw the prospect of Russia’s shifting alliances as threats to the U.S. 'national security'; defensible using the same military force they used to crush Iraq and Afghanistan, merely citing the target country as a ‘threat to national security.’

Cheney visited Kazakhstan a few years back to coerce them into bypassing Russia with their oil pipeline and supply the West directly through Turkey. He did this right after trashing the Putin government at a conference in Lithuania, right in the midst of U.S. efforts to punish one of Russia's major oil partners, Iran, for 'unanswered questions' about its nuclear program.

It's not clear what Cheney got from Kazakhstan, but it was reported that the former Soviet republic has begun to supply China through its pipeline which links the two countries. China, the world's number two oil consumer next to the U.S., is poised to receive 20 million metric tons of oil a year.

So, some sort of future push for an oil pipeline is inevitable. The question will be then, as it was in the past, what are we compromising in terms of our military commitment and our dollars to such an opportunistic (possibly necessary to Af/Pak) and dangerous enterprise.
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Turborama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 02:21 AM
Response to Original message
7. Thank-you for a very insightful & well written piece.
How long do you think it will be before we get to hear more details of the 'comprehensive strategy'?





:kick: & R
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 02:24 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. you're welcome
Edited on Fri Feb-27-09 02:38 AM by bigtree
The review report is due by the end of May, in anticipation of the NATO conference in April.
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Turborama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 02:40 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. It's a shame we have to wait so long but these things do take time.
Edited on Fri Feb-27-09 02:53 AM by Turborama
I am fully behind the way President Obama is dealing with this. Now is not the time to cut and run, the region is in way too much turmoil and we cannot let Pakistan's nukes fall into the wrong hands.

I am glad to hear we are tripling the non military aid (NMA) to Pakistan. It's also very good to hear that we are focusing on the economic development of both countries using the NMA included in the State budget. It is clear that we need more troops (from all of NATO) there to help secure the areas where the reconstruction is to take place. This is the best strategy, imho:

Chairman of Senate Foreign Relations Committee John Kerry intends to introduce legislation to triple non-military aid to Pakistan. The initiative, sponsored jointly by Senators Kerry and Chuck Hagel, angles for $4-7 billion in immediate financial assistance.

Non-military aid has been included in the State budget for both countries “to revitalize economic development and confront the resurgence of the Taliban.” That funding will be crucial to realizing the administration's goal of moving beyond the destabilizing effects of the military assaults on the populations to attracting the citizens away from the influence of the militarized elements of resistance to NATO and the U.S..



(edit to clarify something I picked out on second reading)
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ShortnFiery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 02:23 AM
Response to Original message
8. We need to claim "victory" now and make like a sheep herder ...
get the FLOCK out of the Middle East. ;)
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SpartanDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 04:24 AM
Response to Original message
11. Very good article
it's clear that the Obama Administration is laying the foundation for its comprehensive strategy and I agree the increase in non military aid is particularly encouraging. This is a very stark departure from the cowboy diplomacy of GWB.
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 11:22 AM
Response to Reply #11
14. Unlike the military moves the president can make unilaterally
. . . the funding will be subject to whatever Congress allows or offers.

That effort will take the commitment from the president that I describe to make certain the money is there to allow the State. Dept. to assume many of the tasks that our soldiers have had to shoulder; like mediating community disputes, managing economic development, and mitigating other issues surrounding the military occupation.

I believe we can be certain, as you say, that this administration won't be an obstacle to, or as neglectful of that effort as the Bush administration was. It will definitely take a bold bid for foreign funds which gain on the military appropriations - made even more difficult by economic strains here at home.
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Turborama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 08:05 AM
Response to Original message
12. ...
:kick:
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unhappycamper Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 11:22 AM
Response to Original message
15. The Russians did it.
Edited on Fri Feb-27-09 11:23 AM by unhappycamper
They went broke trying to conquer Afghanistan.

The Americans are now up to bat.

And we'll go broke doing the same thing.

I'm pretty disappointed in President Obama.
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blues90 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 02:01 PM
Response to Reply #15
17.  I agree , we need to get out now.
I don't recall Iraq ever asking us to come there and form a democracy and one we did all we managed to do was invite the so called terrorists to fight us there. Now if we go back into Afghanistan I would think they would take advantange of our reduction in Iraq.

This is a no win situation for anyone and no amount of troops can win this madness.

Then there is still the talk about how we removed Saddam when we put him in there in the first place and gave him weapons, then we hung him.
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McCamy Taylor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 01:07 PM
Response to Original message
16. The increase in economic aid is good. Stop killing civilians is even better.
The Afghan military needs to be built up. Vulnerable groups like the Hazara who have been oppressed for a century and who were the victims of genocide under the Taliban and who currently get no share of the economic aid we send in need to be included and protected or they will be targeted, especially when those who left Afghanistan in the diaspora start coming back. Women need to be educated. All of that can be accomplished by putting strings on the economic aid.

But bombing civilians to get at Taliban fighters is not going to help anything.
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 02:37 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. I was just reading an account of the security escort troops provide
Edited on Fri Feb-27-09 02:37 PM by bigtree
. . . to enable commerce to proceed free from the regular attacks from militarized resistance forces which have plagued many provinces and disrupted the road systems. But the safety and security of Afghans against those elements can be, and rightly should be taken up by regional partners, more than the U.S. military should make that their 'enduring' purview.

Before we consider what 'strings' to put on aid and assistance, the level of funding considered and enacted needs to honestly represent a clear and strong commitment to the realization of the economic and humanitarian goals intended. It'll do no good if we let those efforts lag and be overtaken by the negative consequences of our military actions.

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SpartanDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 04:58 PM
Response to Reply #16
19. That's why troops on the groups are so important
at least until their own military is stronger the over reliance air tactics has been like using a saw when a scalpel is needed.
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