OK - Lets say the worst case economic scenario happens

[TwixVoy]

Let's say that within the next 1-3 years the "worst case" economic scenario occurs in the United States. Perhaps it is prompted by Russia and China managing to cause the dollar to lose its reserve status. Perhaps it happens because nothing is actually done to try to solve the underlying problems and the solution continues to be "Let's try another bail out package and write the banks a check. Warm up the printing presses". Who knows what will happen.

But let's say 1-3 years from now we are looking at great deperession level unemployment. Consumption is simply NOT possible. Most people can not afford Ipods and the next neat little toy manufactured from Asia. The banks have eliminated most peoples credit cards. People can not spend on money they don't actually have. Many people have run out of unemployment benefits and can not afford shelter/food. Many states and the fed gov have eliminated programs designed to help people like food stamps simply because the states are broke.

What happens in your opinion? How do Americans take it?

Do people riot?

Do people sit at home and watch TV by and large and wait it out for years?

Does crime sky rocket?

Does someone start world war 3?

My personal feeling is that we see a HUGE increase in crime. Particularly theft and fraud. I do see the possibility of the powers that be trying to start a major war with the hidden motive of trying to bring us out of it that way. I see a major increase in police in highly populated areas. They will not be friendly.

Maybe I have too negative an opinion of people, but I do NOT see Americans working together to try to solve the situation should this scenario occur. ESPECIALLY in the southern states. I predict there will be a surge in right wing hate groups and they will target hispanics, GLBT people, immigrants, etc and blame them for all our problems. (notice they are already slowly doing this more and more)

I think it will get ugly.

[Mojorabbit]

1. People who have lost their homes

won't be sitting in them watching tv. I am worried too. I just don't know what will happen. During the depression workers banded together in a lot of cities. I have a lot of faith in people and think a lot of local solutions will be found but I also know that a part of the population will be a big part of the problem instead of the solution. If we go down, so will most of the rest of the world.

[imdjh]

4. It's so hard to get an accurate picture of what is going on.

The reports are clouded by (I can't quite think of a word for it, it's not stupidity but something else) and corrupted by motive. The other day the news reported that Pasco County Florida had done a homeless study which estimated homelessness at X, but "officials believe the estimate to be inaccurately low because it doesn't count people living with friends and family." I kid you not. It actually said that the numbers were wrong because they didn't count people who were living with friends and family as homeless. Guess what, Pasco? People who are living with friends and family aren't homeless!

Why would a county want to artificially inflate its homeless numbers? Money. Meanwhile, they are trying to make it appear that things are worse than they are. People living with friends and family is how you SURVIVE something like this- you pool your incomes and your resources.

[Hannah Bell]

8. i don't think that's exactly inflating the stats. If I'm living with my mom without income, I have

a home, but only by my mom's sufferance, & i'm draining her resources unless she's loaded.

it's not "homeless," but it's not optimal.

[imdjh]

13. Part of the problem with ethnic-Americans is that we don't work together as families.

Many years ago, I paid a huge rent check every month to my Chinese-American landlord. Guess where he lived? He lived in a house with his wife, his two children, his brother, and their mother. A four bedroom house in a really nice neighborhood and every bedroom occupied. They didn't all move out the day they turned 18, they bought rental properties while pooling their resources. Meanwhile, my family is pissing away money living in three separate houses that collectively aren't worth nearly what one 18 room house would be worth, or in another scenario are pissing away hundreds of dollars a money on three cell phone plans, three cable bills, etc... and we're not collecting rent on the two extra houses.

We need to return to the model of our great grandparents and their larger households where people worked together and saved money. That's why they didn't use credit cards: they saved up for things.

[Hannah Bell]

16. i'd have no objections to your model of togetherness if it didn't involve impoverishment

of the masses & further enrichment of the wealthy.

but at present, it does.

living together in poverty isn't all lollipops & puppies.

[marions ghost]

33. right exactly

fine for all of us to live like sardines while the rich have lavish spaces with enormous kitchens, spare bedrooms, libraries and home theatres.

Living together in poverty...oh FUN. x(

[eridani]

21. Not stupidity; just living in a hyperprivileged bubble

The real Green Zone, that is. The rest of us are all out here dealing with Red Zone reality.

[imdjh]

2. I don't think it will happen, but it could be an interesting study.

We have been told that crime during the Great Depression was actually quite low. The US in general has a fairly low rate of crime. This is particularly surprising when you consider that our policing and punishment are mild compared to some countries.

I think your remarks about the South are either ignorant about the South or ignorant about other areas of the country, given that you have framed it in relative terms then it's hard to know which. I'll remind you that the cities best known for gang warfare, both historically and in the present, are elsewhere.

[TwixVoy]

6. Not ignorant realistic

FACT - the VAST majority of racism in this country was concentrated in the south. Hate groups like the KKK were born there. The south also is the major block of the country that votes republican and gave us 8 years of bush. So it is not far fetched to conclude the south will likely be the home of problem starters who want to blame this mess on anyone who isn't white, heterosexual, christian, and male.

If you want to pretend that isn't the truth fine, but the facts say otherwise.

[imdjh]

12. According to whom?

Every major city in the US was and to a greater or lesser degree still is segregated by ethnicity. They didn't create Chinatown because it was a great idea for a tourist attraction. The Irish, Italian, Jewish, Japanese, and other neighborhoods retained their names because they weren't quite as pejorative as Nwordtown or Coloredtown, but those places still exist.

What state is most famous for its white supremacists now? Georgia? No. Idaho.

You're in a time warp. The South is too big, too desirable, and too diverse for what you are imagining. Those people are as marginal here as they are elsewhere. Just because you have decided what a Confederate Flag or NASCAR sticker means doesn't mean that you get to define it.

Look closer:

[TwixVoy]

14. You are making the false assumption

that Chinatown is racist. It is not. Just because people of similar races choose to live together does NOT mean they are racist or that they treat people of a different race badly. You can walk in to Chinatown and not be treated like a 2nd class citizen. Nor do you have any risk of being beaten/killed for not being Asian.

The south never got that concept. They enforced segregation by force of law, and took violent action up to and including murder to keep that segregation going. The bastards went so far as to commit treason against the United States its self to continue that system, and still to this day use the flag representing that treason with pride. I have been to many southern states, and I have noticed that there are still plenty of signs of underlying racism. If you live in the south I doubt you even realize it.

In any event, when your local Chinatown takes up arms against the United States get back to me.

[imdjh]

17. Chinatown did not start life as an affinity group or tourist trap.

1859
"The Chinese School" was created. Chinese children were assigned to this "Chinese only" school. They were not permitted into any other public schools in San Francisco.

1870
Anti-Chinese ordinances are passed in San Francisco to curtail their housing and employment options. Queues are banned.

1880
US and China sign treaty giving the US the right to limit but "not absolutely prohibit" Chinese immigration. California's Civil Code passes anti-miscegination law.

1885
The "Chinese School" was renamed the" Oriental School," so that Chinese, Korean, and Japanese students could be assigned to the school.

1900
Tung Wah Dispensary opens in Chinatown

Chinese Hospital
845 Jackson St.
San Francisco, CA 94133
415.982.2400
4th Annual Women's Health Day
The first Chinese people to San Francisco were forced to settle in Chinatown. Isolated from the rest of the city, they did not have access to the services provided by San Francisco institutions. Schools and hospitals were not open to the Chinese people for decades. Even during the bubonic plague outbreak at the turn of the century, the city’s health department quarantined Chinatown rather than open health facilities to afflicted Chinese. The only facility available that practiced western medicine was the Tung Wah Dispensary-a dispensary staffed by Christian missionaries.

1924
The "Oriental School" was renamed Commodore Stockton School. Alice FongYu was the first Chinese teacher. Students were barred from speaking Chinese in school or on the playground.

[truedelphi]

50. That is great material. Thanks for posting. n/t

[truedelphi]

49. I think the poster has a point.

People currently living in Chinatown may be free to live elsewhere, in this time period. But that is a relatively recently-acquired freedom. (Even today, newly arrving Chinese will move into a Chinatown because of the language barrier. Unless they were well off enough to learn English, the immigrant from China almost HAS TO live there.)

But the reasons for the creation of a Chinatown are the rather rampant ethnic -centeredness of Earlier America.

A German moving to Chicago in the 1880's would move to a neighborhood with other Germans. The Irish lived with the Irish. Greeks with Greeks. Et Cetera.

It was a big deal in the nineteen thirties and forties if an Irish woman married an Italian! And with that couple - there would not be a religious division - the families on both sides would be Catholic. But it still was scandalous for the families involved.

[bvar22]

35. Which American City holds the record....

...for the most black men lynched on a single day?

[imdjh]

37. What difference does it make? Which state holds the record for most witches killed?

[bvar22]

45. It makes a difference when someone sanctimonously...

...targets The South as being "racist", like everything is so cool where they live.
Racism and bigotry are as national problem.
The MOST racist states I have been to have been Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, and most of Colorado.

[conscious evolution]

23. As a southerner

I have to say you are wrong.
Waaaayy too many ignorant southerners who are easily manipulated into acting against their best interests.

[imdjh]

36. What state is Baucus from? How about Pelosi, Reid, and Feinstein?

Being a southerner gives you experience over and above what many of the Southbashers on DU have, assuming you haven't lived in Boston since age three, but it doesn't mean that what you say is inarguable. There are plenty of people who are Americans who think it's clever or chic to sit around Seattle running America into the ground.

[MercutioATC]

3. WORST case? Think Middle Ages.

...but it won't get THAT bad.

A realistic worst case scenario would involve rampant crime, localized breakdown of social services (including police services), rioting, and starvation.

[Voice for Peace]

20. toss in a plague or two

[raccoon]

31. Hey, it might help with the unemployment. :sarcasm: nt

[Selatius]

5. Had it not been for the Great Depression, FDR probably would not have won office or been heard of.

Hopefully, if the US finds itself in a Second Great Depression, the people will elect another FDR who is strong on corporate regulation, social programs/reinvestment programs, and is bent on election reform to loosen the grip lobbyists have on politicians.

It's either that, or we travel into the unknown.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. The unknown is not that unknown

FASCISM...

Problem is that many of the people here do not know US history.

:-)

Or history for that matter.

[Greyhound]

10. Sing it.

And never under estimate the power of denial. Four letter guy upthread is a prime example, I've read his stuff for quite some time now and he is always wrong and always has a "reason" why.

We know that, historically, this scenario has led us into global wars and I see nothing to indicate this time will be any different except that this time we have the means to end it all, forever.

Asia is just hoping that it will all hold together until they are capable of sustaining themselves, Africa is still lost, Europe is trying to hold it together with no help from us, and South America has figured out that they don't need us.

And we accepted the corporate candidates and played our irrelevant part in the charade.

[Joe Chi Minh]

39. Your comment minds me of Trotsky's darkly ironic saying: "You may not

be interested in war, but war is intersted in you." As a lot of part-time service people, only on the scheme as a means to obtaining a university education, have since discovered; not to speak of those poor souls who've been repeatedly stop-lossed. I believe the latter has been virtually discontinued though.

[nadinbrzezinski]

48. Ah yes, stop loss

why I am all for a draft, if the wars are so critical to the US... then by all means we need a national mobilization

Trust me, deeply familiar with stop loss...

[Life Long Dem]

9. Time to tell 4 eyes to take off his eyeglasses

I'd like to see his eyes better without the shinny glasses. But I better watch out what I say? If I have an acc. at BOA? :rofl:

[David Zephyr]

11. This too will pass.

It will take another 12-18 months, sadly, for the big projects (green jobs) to begin to take effect on the main street economy.

There will be a recovery, but it won't look like what we think it will.

There will be no recovery in the "real estate market or real estate job market" for possibly 5 to 10 years. Say goodbye to real estate agent snobbery.

It will not get ugly.

It may be corny, but it is true in this case: the darkest hour will be before the dawn.

Have some patience.

[grasswire]

15. in this city cops are closing precincts and cutting services

...and the unemployment rate is running about 12 percent officially. I don't know that crime is up, despite that. Haven't heard so.

[TheKentuckian]

18. I don't think anyone is accounting for the sheer number of people we have today.

Nor is their much factoring of how global the economy is today. If it gets bad then it will be worse than ever there isn't enough to do for 6+ billion nor is that throng easily sustained. Especially, when they'd HAVE to kill to get enough acreage to house AND feed themselves. There isn't enough game or land for all of these people to scrape by. In our current set up, without jobs many of us have no way to sustain.

In America at least, another huge but related difference is the corporations now own and control most of the food production. The massive assimilation of the family farms and ranches since the last depression could turn out to be a complete ball breaker for those up against it. We have a safety net with food stamps and whatnot now but it isn't designed to accommodate 25%+ of the working age population.

[KG]

19. america can't even get the concept of 'empire' right. as an empire, the riches should be flowing

into this country, instead it's leaving.

[imdjh]

51. That's what I said for eight years. Yes, conquer is bad, but as long as you are there...

.... bring home the treasure.

[Delphinus]

22. I'll have to think about this ...

interesting. But, off the top of my head, I will say we have to learn to love one another and get along and work together. The consequences of NOT doing that are pretty horrendous, imvho.

[Mister Ed]

24. We've already seen "a HUGE increase in crime. Particularly theft and fraud"...

...on the part of wealthy elites.

I see what you're saying, though. Maybe that criminal behavior will eventually "trickle down" to the lower classes as well.

[DemReadingDU]

25. It will get ugly

As more and more people become jobless, homeless, penneyless and hungry, emotions are bound to run rampant. Lots of angry people. Where are all these people going to live, and where are they going to get food? They will steal from you, or shoot you if you don't comply.

And don't think this might not happen to you and me. Because when the stock market crashes and nears 4000, more people will lose their money. Then there are too many toxic securities inside pensions that will become worthless, so people getting monthly pensions will have no income either. And who thinks there will be bank runs? What if your savings are no longer in the bank and the FDIC is unable to give you your money, because the government is bankrupt and can't print anything.

What if all trading stops? We will get nothing from China, stores will be empty of clothing and food. There could be no more McDonalds nor Wal-marts. Peak oil will set in, and people will not be able to get gas for their cars, or if they can, it will be very expensive.

And how will we heat our homes and turn on lights (and computers) when the electric companies are also bankrupt?

Yeh, it's going to get very ugly.


Edit. If you haven't already watched the Chris Martenson Crash Course videos, the link is in my sig line. Very educational to learn what is happening with the economy, energy, and environment.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. If The Economy Really Crashed Peak Oil Would Be Delayed Decades If Not A Century

Because demand would dry up.

[DemReadingDU]

29. except for the military

The military always has need for oil/gas

edited for logic

[dysfunctional press]

40. "how will we heat our homes and turn on lights when the electric companies are also bankrupt?"

the government would take over the utilities long before something like that would happen.

[DemReadingDU]

47. that's what my spouse says too, n/t

[Echo In Light]

26. This country of brainwashed, pacified ding-a-lings? Absolutely nothing. Docile sheep obey.

Even if "Things Got Bad," as soon as people saw that the corporate/state nexus is indeed willing to turn the Riot Cops on them/citizens, they'd allow themselves to be put in place as per usual, all the while pathetically attempting to justify their cowardice w/the usual bullshit platitudes about how we just have to have patience, it's not THAT bad, we'll vote the bums out, etc. Never underestimate the power of denial.

[BR_Parkway]

27. Food will be the new currency - because most aren't in a place or have

the knowledge to produce their own. During Republican Depression I - a much larger part of the population produced some or all of their own foods - now we have a a corporate food chain that requires cash to operate.

Subdivisions sit where family farms used to. Most of the population living in the cities would be completely out of food within days if the trucks stopped bringing it in (or the people couldn't afford it once it came in)

Your comments about the south are somewhat misplaced - we're not the overall concentration of bigots down here that some portray us to be. In fact, the white supremacists lately that have been arrested lately have come from some diverse locations like Vermont and Michigan.

What a large portion of the southern population does have is our ability to grow food - including land and at least one generation of relatives who still have the knowledge to not only grow it, but also to can and preserve it.

[IDemo]

30. See "Children of Men"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NikEQy1XxDE

[timeforpeace]

32. We have a major war developing. Afghanistan and Pakistan, the latter an illegal foray ala Cambodia.

[amandabeech]

38. Mission creep.

Is there enough vegetation in Af/Pak for us to once again "love the smell of Napalm in the morning?"

Initially, I thought that going into Afghanistan was necessary. Now, what might have been a limited action against Al Quaida has morphed into something that's looking more and more like Vietnam in drier terrain.

There's a reason why the Russians are letting us overfly their airspace in order to supply ourselves and NATO in Afghanistan. They want us to dig deeper into the quagmire that eventually lost them their empire.

[lumberjack_jeff]

34. I don't think you've actually described the worst-case scenario.

Imagine all of those things, AND the banks and brokerage houses cannot (for whatever reason) give people their money.

The people have debt, but lack access to any money.

This is the scenario that the ammo and gold hoarders worry about. Without money to purchase food, people don't sit in front of their TV to wait it out.

[abumbyanyothername]

41. Well it might have been a fun thread

But we got lost in whether the South is racist or not.

Personally, I think worst case scenario is actually best case scenario as people essentially give up chasing the American dream and are forced back to what works . . . a tremendously down-sized but utterly self (or at least community) sufficient lifestyle. Less work, more leisure.

[dysfunctional press]

43. "Less work, more leisure".

i don't think that you quite understand what self-sufficiency is really all about.

[dysfunctional press]

42. communal living.

we're already getting ready for it.

my wife and i have a four-bedroom house on a little over an acre, and no kids. our neighbor has a bigger house and more property, and it's just him. in the three years that we've been here, our vegetable garden has gotten bigger every year.
we have several friends who could very likely be foreclosed out of their homes by the end of the year, and may end up with us for the foreseeable future beyond that.

i do worry about the possiblity of a rise in the crime rate- which is why we're also 'arming' ourselves for the first time in our lives.

there are interesting times ahead.

[bvar22]

44. If you really want to know,

Argentina suffered an economic collapse in 2000.
There are some sobering 1st person accounts posted on the Internet of what it took to survive in an urban situation during and after a collapse.
These are some of the suggestions I remember from an account I read a few years ago.

In general, his advice was:

*Guns and ammo, lots and lots. Ammo became very expensive after the collapse.
Guns and ammo became a medium of exchange.

*Fortify your home, especially ground floor doors and windows and NEVER let ANYONE inside except your direct family members

*Clean water a MUST. Their municipal system became contaminated.

*Lots of canned goods and non-perishables

*Black Markets thrived, but paper money was almost useless. Anything gold was the best medium of exchange (jewelry, coins, etc)

*Never go anywhere unarmed

*Never go anywhere after dark

*Never develop a "routine". The most dangerous times were leaving their home and the door was open.
Gangs would watch and plan attacks if someone left their home at regular times. When arriving home, they would circle the block several times looking for anything or anyone out of the ordinary.

*Never come to a complete stop while driving, and keep a pistol in your lap.
Have someone riding "shotgun" whenever possible.

*Always carry something to bribe police

*A good generator and fuel. Electricity became erratic. Highly recommended LED Miners lamps and plenty of batteries.

*People in the country side who could grow their own food were generally better off than those in the city or suburbs, but some gangs developed to target rural farms. It was easier to survive in the country, but more vulnerable to gang attacks due to the isolation. Once gangs gained entry, they would stay for days or weeks looting and raping.


http://www.survival-spot.com/survival-blog/argentina-collapse/

[omega minimo]

46. We have always been at war with Eurasia. Chocolate rations are UP!!!

[ChiciB1]

52. I've Had The Same Thoughts & Think We Are Headed Dow This Path!!

Yes, it's cynical, but this country isn't the country is once was and people just don't pay enough attention. I for one have just thrown up my hands and haven't a clue about how to STOP what may really be DISASTER!!

[MattSh]

53. Don't blame Russia or China if the $ loses it's reserve status.

Blame the USA. America has been debasing it's currency for decades.