http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/104xx/doc10431/07-02-HELPltr.pdfI understand what you are saying about the media, but it also appears that the second estimate may not have given us a clear picture either when you add in Medicaid expansion.
"...According to the CBO's July 2 score of the HELP bill (released in part on July 1), under the legislation, 21 million fewer Americans would be uninsured in 2019 than under current law..."
:shrug:
"...Once the legislation was fully implemented, CBO and JCT staff estimate,
about 20 million fewer people would be uninsured compared with
projections under current law.
...The draft legislation does not include a significant expansion of the
Medicaid program or other options for subsidizing coverage for those with
income below 150 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL); such
provisions may be incorporated at a later date. By CBO’s estimate, about
three-quarters of the people who would remain uninsured under this version
of the legislation would have income below 150 percent of the FPL.
The figures presented in this letter do not represent a formal or complete
cost estimate for the draft legislation.
This estimate reflects the major
provisions of the legislation but CBO has not yet completed an analysis of
all of its effects. Specifically, the agency has not yet estimated the
administrative costs to the federal government of implementing the
specified policies or the costs of establishing and operating the new
insurance exchanges, nor has it taken into account all of the proposal’s
likely effects on spending for other federal programs or their potential
effects on revenues from corporate taxes...
Third, the new
draft substantially limits the opportunity for employees with an offer of
health insurance from their employer to receive subsidies in the insurance
exchange because their employer’s offer was deemed unaffordable..."
This is yesterday's letter and preliminary analysis which adds the cost of expanding Medicaid, not in the draft HELP bill as noted in the 7/2 letter.
Adding the Medicaid expansion will increase the cost by roughly 500 billion, closer to where the original estimate and still leaving millions uninsured.
:shrug:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=6016037&mesg_id=6016037"...CBO has not yet had time to produce a full estimate of the cost of incorporating any specific Medicaid expansion in the HELP committee’s legislation. However, our preliminary analysis indicates that such an expansion could increase federal spending for Medicaid by an amount that could vary in a broad range around $500 billion over 10 years. Along with that increase in federal spending would come a substantial increase in Medicaid enrollment, amounting to perhaps 15 million to 20 million people. Such an expansion of Medicaid would also have some impact on the number of people who obtain coverage from other sources (including employers). All told, the number of non-elderly people who would remain uninsured would probably decline to somewhere between 15 million and 20 million. (For comparison, CBO’s analysis of the draft legislation that was released by the HELP committee found that, absent any expansion of Medicaid or other change in the legislation, about 33 million people would ultimately remain uninsured if it were to be enacted.)...."