About this here economy - retirement accounts and such

[Wickerman]

The media is awash in accounts of how piss poor the economy is doing. And I know there are a lot of people hurting out there. Jobless numbers suck and beyond those numbers are real people who haven't worked in a long time. The list of a down economy is endless, I see little mention of positives.

But, today I saw an odd glimmer of hope. I don't much follow economic news; leading and lagging indicators don't mean much to me. I plunk my retirement money into what looks like stable indices and ride the good times with the bad times with my dinky little 457b account. I keep paying in when the times are bad because I understand I am buying more value when the fund is undervalued. Right.

Anyway, got my quarterly statement today and had to look twice. I saw dramatic gains this quarter. I'm in three funds and each showed gains, two were in the borderline stunning range.

Are others seeing this? I don't, as said, follow economic news; is this being reported? I know that some are reporting the market is still overvalued. What does all this mean?

[notadmblnd]

1. I've recovered about 3k out of a 20k loss

[MercutioATC]

2. Yep. Roughly a 30% gain in the first quarter (back down 5% now)

That would mean the average person's 50% loss is now only a 35% loss on their first-quarter statements.

37% or so if they're still in equities.

[Wickerman]

3. Thanks, that seems to be what I am seeing

So, do you think the market is still over-valued?

[MercutioATC]

4. I do...and I don't think the economy is actually recovering.

You can play the market a lot of different ways. In a volatile market such as exists now, there's money to be made.

However, my strategy uses more medium-term indicators and I think the picture is bleak.

So, you can make money short-term if you play it right and you can make money long-term (10-20 years)...but I think that the 1-10 year money should still be sitting on the sidelines. I expect the next 3-5 years to be ugly, with a very slow recovery after that.