pandemic H1N1 considered unstoppable by WHO. last report and cases figures, nation by nation.

[demoleft]

"Since the spread of the pandemic virus is considered unstoppable, vaccine will be needed in all countries. SAGE emphasized the importance of striving to achieve equity among countries to access vaccines developed in response to the pandemic (H1N1) 2009"
(source: WHO, see links below)

not exactly what i expected when i first came to know about it.

countries have been undervaluing this - or it is simply that they were taken by surprise?
summer vacations and events won't help this, of course. spreading will get easier.

here for the last report: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/notes/h1n1_vaccine_20090713/en/index.html

and here for the cases, country by country: http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_07_06/en/index.html

i'm astonished.

ciao DUers.

[Auggie]

1. The U.K. government predicts 100,000 cases a day by August

The United Kingdom has ordered enough vaccine for their entire population

LINK: http://pakalert.wordpress.com/2009/07/04/swine-flu-uk-claims-100000-h1n1-cases-a-day-by-august-09/

[madrchsod]

6. i find this interesting...cia swineflu and plastic coffins

dam i forgot to read the link before i posted but after checking i found this

http://pakalert.wordpress.com/2009/07/03/the-cias-swine-flu-your-plastic-fema-coffin/

yup a really creditable source...

[Auggie]

12. Here's confirmation:

UPI

LONDON, July 3 (UPI) -- Health officials in the United Kingdom say the H1N1 virus, or swine flu, may not be containable due to the rampant spread of the influenza infection.

The Scotsman (Edinburg) said U.K. Health Secretary Andy Burnham issued a projection that had the United Kingdom enduring more than 100,000 new cases of swine flu daily before the end of August.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2009/07/03/UK-officials-fear-H1N1-uncontainable/UPI-57171246652982/

------

Can't find a link about the vaccine order, but I heard about just an hour ago on radio.

[kimmerspixelated]

17. Thanks for posting this!

It needs to be linked to often!

[Oregone]

2. It seems to be doing exactly what I read it would earlier

This winter could get hairy. Aren't the authorities predicting 90K additional deaths in the US now during flu season, or has that been altered yet?

[lapfog_1]

9. Start thinking more like 150K.

The death rate is holding steady at .5%, now assume that 10% of the US population contracts H1N1.

[Oregone]

14. Its .42% here, but small sample size (Canada)

Regardless, much higher than the seasonal flu. The only thing people can hope for right now is that less people get it than the standard flu, or that the medical system is more responsive to cases (if anything can be done)

In the papers, they report some people have been on ventilators for a month to keep them alive. If this hits large scale, Canada will run out of ventilators if they have to be used by a single person for that long of time. Probably most places will.

Looking at the stats, it seems like the fatality rate is actually low everywhere except Quebec, so it skews it all a bit

[madrchsod]

3. happens every year..

will this version mutate into a more serious virus? we will know this fall and winter

[timeforpeace]

4. It's a blessing that so few die from it. Now the regular flu, that's bad.

[lapfog_1]

8. .5% are dying from it. And not just children and the elderly.

And that IS bad.

[Sigh Sister]

15. The current case fatality rate for swine flu is .5%

Seasonal flu is .12%. Swine flu is worse.

[Oregone]

18. Foot in mouth

[kimmerspixelated]

5. Although you might not agree

here are several points taken to consider: ttp://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=6050182&mesg_id=6050182

and today's lively but insulting discussion:http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=6058431&mesg_id=6058431

[demoleft]

10. yes, i saw the second link. the first one i had missed it. thanx.

yes, i see the issue on vaccination.
what worries me is the sudden surge of preoccupation - as if the matter had slipped off the governments' hands.

we've had cases some 20 km from where i live, just - what's that? 12 miles?
there's a world handball tournament ongoing, and cypriot players plus other people have been found ill.
recoveries at the hospital were suspended. u can imagine the situation.

editing: the cypriot patients have beed released from the hospital today, considered now perfectly sane.
just got it from the local news here.

thanx for the links - the first one i'm going into.

ciao.

[lapfog_1]

7. Death rate is holding steady...

.5% give or take.

That means if 30 Million people in the US contract H1N1 (that's probably low ball 10% for a pandemic flu), some 150,000 people will die. And, unlike previous flu outbreaks, this one is still affecting those in the prime of life, and not the elderly.

After it evaporated from the news, people have ignored it. But it's still a very serious health threat... and it's not behaving at all like a typical flu virus.

[kimmerspixelated]

13. Because it is most likely man made or concocted.

It is not naturally evolved.

[Oregone]

19. Was the Spanish Flu man-made?

Maybe the Spanish Flu is actually this one, and we sent it back into time to kill Sarah Connor

[Sigh Sister]

21. Do you believe the 1918 pandemic was man made?

It had a much higher CFR: An estimated one third of the world's population (or ≈500 million persons) were infected and had clinically apparent illnesses (1,2) during the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic. The disease was exceptionally severe. Case-fatality rates were >2.5%, compared to <0.1% in other influenza pandemics (3,4). Total deaths were estimated at ≈50 million (5–7) and were arguably as high as 100 million (7).

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm

[Control-Z]

28. This data is for all cases

before an available vaccine. Yes? Somewhere up thread (or in one of the other linked threads) I believe I read that a vaccine is due out by the end of this month. Surely that will change the rate of infection - and the severity, as well as the rate of death?

I wonder if there are projected numbers that include the vaccinated.

[lapfog_1]

29. The vaccine efficacy is totally unknown.

not to mention that the real fear is that by this fall, the strain of H1N1 that emerged from Mexico this spring (from pigs shipped there from the US), will mutate in a number of ways.

[Control-Z]

30. Yeah. I know all that.

I guess I was just trying to show a little optimism.

[demoleft]

11. this thread has been UNrec too. it only contains data.

and good solid comments as well.

funny really.

[ladywnch]

16. I find this whole thing highly suspect.....check out this other DU thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=389&topic_id=6058431

[demoleft]

20. yes. in some corner of my mind there's always the shadow of a doubt about pandemics. n/t

[Oregone]

22. “There is a misunderstanding about this virus,” he said in a statement. “There is clear evidence...

"The new swine flu virus has caused the first pandemic of the 21st century, infecting more than a million people, according to estimates, and killing at least 500. The World Health Organization says it is causing mostly moderate disease but Mr. Kawaoka said that does not mean it is like seasonal flu.

“There is a misunderstanding about this virus,” he said in a statement. “There is clear evidence the virus is different than seasonal influenza.”

Writing in the journal Nature, Mr. Kawaoka and colleagues noted that the ability to infect the lungs is a characteristic of other pandemic viruses, especially the 1918 virus, which is estimated to have killed between 40 million and 100 million people."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/h1n1-thrives-in-respiratory-system-study/article1216201/

[Sigh Sister]

23. I unfortunately know a man

who is healthy, fit, and in his mid-forties who has been on a vent for the last three weeks after getting this flu. He became critically ill in a matter of hours. They haven't been able to wean him off of the vent. This is no regular flu.

[Oregone]

24. And what happens when they run out of ventilators

They can all sit around and pretend that wont happen but when a single person can take a ventilator out of circulation for weeks, its going to be tough. Its almost better to get this now if you are really going to get it bad:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/canada-stockpiles-ventilators-for-flu-fight/article1207344/

[Sigh Sister]

26. It's a very real possibility if this comes back with a vengeance in the fall/winter.

And what happens to the people who are critically injured in some type of accident, need to be on a vent, but there aren't any available? I would hate to be working in an ER come fall. There may be a lot of ethical issues to deal with.

[quidam56]

25. The best health care system in the world is killing us

As a former health care giver, I am shocked and saddened to see what has become of health care in America. $ 1. 4 million is being spent per day in DC by the health care lobbyists so your elected representative is getting taken care of and has quality health care we pay for and can't afford ourselves for our families, I know what is deemed, defended and supported in Tennessee and Virginia as quality health care and clearly profit care comes ahead of patient care. http://www.wisecountyissues.com/?p=62 MRSA ( methicillin resistant staphylococcus aureas ) is infesting our communities because filthy, uncaring hospitals and emergency rooms are breeding them and spreading them into our schools, homes, restaurants. How many more Americans' will be diseased or die while 74 % of Americans' are begging for health care reform ? More people died in America last year from MRSA complications than AIDS. When MRSA and a flu bug start mixing, it won't be pretty and we are being infected by the very health care system we depend on and trust to keep us safe and healthy.

[Th1onein]

27. Viruses and bacteria don't breed with each other.

They are natural competitors for hosts.

Are you a caretaker or a health care worker?