US News & World Report: Nine Reasons the Economy is Not Getting Better

[marmar]

Nine Reasons the Economy is Not Getting Better
Jobs data paint a discouraging picture of more pain to come

By Mortimer Zuckerman
Posted July 13, 2009


We are now looking at unemployment numbers that undermine any confidence that we might be nearing the bottom of the recession. The appropriate metaphor is not the green shoots of new growth. A better image is to look at the true total of jobless people as a prudent navigator looks at an iceberg.

What we see on the surface is disconcerting enough. The estimate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics of job losses for June is 467,000. That increases by 7.2 million the number of unemployed since the start of the recession. The cumulative job losses over the past six months have been greater than for any other half-year period since World War II, including demobilization. What's more, the job losses are now equal to the net job gains over the previous nine years, making this the only recession since the Great Depression to wipe out all employment growth from the previous business cycle.

That's bad enough. But here are nine reasons we are in even more trouble than the 9.5 percent unemployment rate indicates.

One. June's total included 185,000 people who were assumed to be at work, many of whom probably were not. The government could not identify them; it made an assumption about trends. But many of the mythical jobs are in industries that have absolutely no job creation: finance, for example. When the official numbers are adjusted over the next several months, look to some of the 185,000 boosting the unemployment totals.

Two. More companies are asking employees to take unpaid leave. These people don't count on the unemployment roll.

Three. No fewer than 1.4 million people wanted or were available for work in the past 12 months. They were not counted. Why? Because they hadn't searched for work in the four weeks preceding the survey. The assumption is that they had found work or don't want it, but there are other explanations: school attendance, family responsibilities, sheer exhaustion. .........(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.usnews.com/articles/opinion/mzuckerman/2009/07/13/nine-reasons-the-economy-is-not-getting-better.html

[Xipe Totec]

1. None of them are named after Republican senators

How very strange.

I guess there are at least 18 reasons why the economy is not getting better...

[Coyote_Bandit]

2. From my window

the economy is not getting any better and I do not expect it to improve for me personally in the forseeable future if ever. Millions of jobs have gone away. New jobs are not being created. The single best thing we could do to stimulate the economy is to provide a stimulus and incentive for small business creation and development. But that isn't likely to happen. It doesn't serve the interests of our corporate overlords or the politicians who serve them.

[xchrom]

3. recommend

[LiberalEsto]

4. I had a part time job and it went away

so I'm not being counted in anyone's unemployment statistics. My last work assignment was in September 2008, and I haven't been able to find anything since then. My husband, who has worked in the computer field for nearly 3 decades, had to take a 12 percent pay cut in order to get hired at his new job. One of my kids (age 22)is walking dogs. The other (age 25) is babysitting. This economy is terrible.

[lindisfarne]

5. Did they consult with any economists?Most economists say unemployment rate isn't a good indicator

of economic recovery.
Krugman has stated the stimulus package wasn't expected to have much effect on employment yet.
See #1 here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=8522098

Their point that there is a lot of unhidden unemployment is correct. There always has been, although reduced hours, unpaid leave, etc. does represent an decrease in pay and if people were fired rather than using these kinds of measures, unemployment would increase.