LA Times: Swine flu still spreading through U.S. as concerns grow about school restarting

[marmar]

Swine flu still spreading through U.S. as concerns grow about school restarting
By Thomas H. Maugh II

12:28 PM PDT, July 17, 2009


The pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 influenza virus is unexpectedly continuing to spread easily through the United States during the summer months, and health authorities expect a bump in transmission in about six weeks, when school goes back into session -- perhaps two or three months earlier than is normally seen with seasonal flu.

"Every year, there is an increase in flu when children go back to school" and viruses are being shared in close quarters, Dr. Anne Schuchat, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases said today in a telephone news conference. "This year, it is already circulating in summer camps, military units and so forth, so we are expecting when school opens we will see (a bigger than normal) increase."

Schuchat said she thinks the unusually high rate of transmission during the heat and humidity of summer, which normally sharply reduce transmission, may be due to the large number of Americans with no resistance to the virus from prior exposure. But there is "no data" to suggest why continued transmission is occurring, she said.

As of this morning, the CDC is reporting more than 40,000 laboratory-confirmed cases of the virus (commonly known as swine flu), 4,800 hospitalizations and 263 deaths. Experts believe more than a million Americans have been infected, however. ...........(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-sci-swine-flu18-2009jul18,0,6483644.story

[kestrel91316]

1. Mortality among confirmed cases in the US is only 0.65%. I really

think handwringing is unnecessary at this point. If over 1 million have been infected, that's a mortality of 0.02%. I think it's probably higher for the common fucking cold.

[marmar]

3. Agree to a point....but that's CONFIRMED deaths. ..... The fact that Britain's NHS.....

..... is taking this so seriously gives me pause.

[Oregone]

4. .65% is pretty damn high

Its not a place to start scoffing at. Maybe unconfirmed deaths and unconfirmed cases can dramatically change those numbers. Maybe not

[kestrel91316]

12. Seasonal flu has a much higher mortality rate. Until the mortality rate

for H1N1 exceeds that of seasonal flu, the drama from the MSM is unwarranted.

[Oregone]

13. Look, 2 to 3 times the number of H1N1 incidences result in death compared to seasonal flu

[stray cat]

6. would you feel the same way if you were a member of the 0.65%

or are your reasonably healthy and less likely you think to be a fatality?

[Mojorabbit]

11. We are still early into it

California's death rate doubled in a week, UK is reporting they expect deaths in to the tens of thousands and
Australia, I think is expecting 6000.
I still think no one will know till it is done and over what is going to happen. It is all up in the air.
You could add in one of Indonesia's best researchers and he says there is a combo of 60 variants possible between bird flu, seasonal flus and this pandemic strain.
They just found pigs infected probably from humans in Argentina.
It is a fascinating thing to watch because no one knows what will happen. It is all up to Mother Nature.

[hedgehog]

15. My reading is that the concern isn't so much on the current mortality rate but the

fear that a widespread virus could easily mutate into a more deadly form.

[National Steel 27]

2. Oh, s**t, the sky is officially falling.

I truly believe that if this flu killed 2,000 Americans, a full 98% of us would think we would be one of the 2,000 most likely to die rather than the 299,9998,000 who would not.

I think I'm gonna throw away my car keys before I get killed in traffic.

[Oregone]

5. Where is your thresehold for emergency?

10K? 100K? Only just 1 million?

[National Steel 27]

17. I'm just not worried about it.

[Hannah Bell]

7. we're all going to die! 1918!

[hedgehog]

14. Everything I've seen written about 1918 suggests that the

right re-mix of viruses will bring a repeat. The consensus seems to be that it's a case of when, not if. There still seem to be questions as to how the flu killed, whether the virus mutated in the midst of the pandemic or how many died from post-flu opportunistic infections San Francisco hasn't burned to the ground after an earthquake since 1906, but I don't think anyone there makes light of earthquake preparedness.

[XemaSab]

8. Come on, Mary...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUO_5EALZoM&feature=related

[DesertRat]

16. I always thought it was Come on, Baby....

Great song, with lots of cowbell! :)

[northernlights]

9. one possible reason for the relatively low death rate in US

is the availability of tamiflu and relenza. However, it started showing resistance to tamiflu pretty early on.

Personally, given the ease with which it's spreading, I think the concern is whether it picks up signifant virulance factors 1) before a vaccine is ready and 2)before a large enough number are exposed while still mild to give some "herd immunity" it could be quite devastating.

[Oregone]

10. Its not that low of a death rate

Im not sure what you are looking at, but 284/37246=.76%

If as many people contract this as the normal flu this winter, that would translate into over 100K dead.

[Wednesdays]

18. K&R

:kick: