What states have the most realistic chance of passing single payer

[Juche]

According to Kucinich the states of California, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, Montana, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Washington all have single payer bills in the works.

I know in California the only reason they don't have single payer is because the governor is a republican who vetoes single payer. I don't know if the NY senate can get single payer passed. Illinois has good dem majorities in both houses.

So what all states does this sound the most plausable in? I ask because some of these states have huge populations. California, New York, Illinois, Ohio & Pennsylvania combined have almost 1/3 of the nations population in them. If single payer is passed in those 5 states and those states end up saving money and the public seeing single payer is the best option, that could be a giant move towards nationalized single payer.

[dflprincess]

1. We have the same kind of governor problem in Minnesota

he won't sign any bill that includes any kind of tax increase. This last legislative session, he vetoed a tax bill and then proceded to cut funds from many of the exisitng medical programs. He completely gutted General Assisstance Medical which serves the poorest of the poor.

The legislature doesn't convene again until next winter and I imagine the local behemonth, United Health Care, has already started shoveling money into campaign treasuries to stop this. I don't have a lot of for single payer in Minnesota.

[Juche]

2. That sucks

I can't find info on the minnesota legislature and the memberships, but it looks to have a minor GOP slant from what I can find.

I think gay marriage, carbon reduction and single payer will be issues that start on the state level and then go federal. When Bush rejected Kyoto many states and towns passed their own Kyoto protocols. Six states have legalized gay marriage. I think single payer is another issue that'll start at the state level and eventually go federal.

[Sebastian Doyle]

3. A reasonable comparison of issues

since it's likely the same bassackward Repuke states that would be against all of the above. (marriage equality, clean air, and a healthy population)

[ProgressiveProfessor]

4. If there is any perception that it will cost more out of the state treasury, CA will not go for it

Given the deficit, it would be political suicide.

Having a bill in the process means nothing if its not viable.

[Juche]

6. California would save $343.6 billion over 10 years with single payer

http://www.pnhp.org/facts/single_payer_system_cost.php?page=3

February 2005: California
California could save $344 billion over 10 years with single payer

A study by the Lewin Group, finds that singlepayer would save California $343.6 billion in health care costs over the next 10 years, mainly by cutting administration and using bulk purchases of drugs and medical equipment.

The bill’s author, Sen. Sheila Kuehl, D-Santa Monica, said the report “demonstrates that we can do it. We need the will to do it. It makes insurance affordable for everybody.”

Lewin Group Report
The Health Care for All Californians Act: Cost and Economic Impacts Analysis
January 19, 2005

Fact Sheet
* The Lewin report, prepared by an independent firm with 18 years of experience in healthcare cost analysis, affirms that we can create a fiscally sound, reliable state insurance plan that covers all Californians and controls health cost inflation.
* The Lewin report shows that all California residents can have affordable health insurance; and that, on average, individuals, families, businesses and the state of California, all of whom are now burdened with rising insurance costs, will save money.
* In February, State Senator Sheila Kuehl (D-23) will introduce the California Health Insurance Reliability Act (CHIRA), based on these findings. CHIRA, based on the Lewin Report model will insure every Californian and allow everyone to choose his or her own doctor.

Savings Overall
The Lewin report model would achieve universal coverage while actually reducing total health spending for California by about $8 billion in the first year alone. Savings would be realized in two ways:

1. The Act would replace the current system of multiple public and private insurers with a single, reliable insurance plan. This saves about $20 billion in administrative costs.

2. California would buy prescription drugs and durable medical equipment (e.g., wheelchairs) in bulk and save about $5.2 billion.

Savings for State and Local Governments
* In addition, state and local governments would save about $900 million, in
the first year, in spending for health benefits provided to state and local
government workers and retirees.
* Aggregate savings to state and local governments from 2006 to 2015 would
be about $43.8 billion.

Savings for Businesses
* Employers who currently offer health benefits would realize average savings of 16% compared to the current system.

Savings for families
* Average family spending for health care is estimated to decline to about $2,448 per family under the Act in 2006, which is an average savings of about $340 per family.
* Families with under $150,000 in annual income would, on average, see savings ranging between $600 and $3,000 per family under the program in 2006.

Cost Controls
* By 2015, health spending in California under the Act would be about $68.9
billion less than currently projected. Total savings over the 2006 through 2015 period would be $343.6 billion.
* Savings to state and local governments over this ten-year period would be
about $43.8 billion.

Comprehensive Benefits
* The Lewin Report assumes an insurance plan that covers medical, dental and
vision care; prescription drug; emergency room services, surgical and recuperative care; orthodontia; mental health care and drug rehabilitation;
immunizations; emergency and other necessary transportation; laboratory and
other diagnostic services; adult day care; all necessary translation and interpretation; chiropractic care, acupuncture, case management and skilled
nursing care.

Efficiencies
* The Lewin Report shows that efficiencies in the system make these superior
benefits available while generating savings.

Freedom to Choose
*The Lewin Report model assumes the consumer’s freedom to choose his or her
own care providers. This means that each Californian will be free to change jobs, start a family, start a business, continue education and or change residences, secure in the knowledge that his or her relationships with trusted caregivers will be secure.

For more information please go to the below link:
http://democrats.sen.ca.gov/senator/kuehl/










--------------------------------------------

Basically if you took all the money people and business in California spends on healthcare, and turned it into tax revenue, you would have enough tax revenue to not only provide high quality healthcare to everyone but with the 344 billion in savings over 10 years you could eliminate Californias deficit, which is currently at 24 billion.

So the savings from single payer would enable California to pay off it's deficits.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

10. The figures are so large and politicians have such little credibilty that it will not be supported

Its not that I don't like the idea, I just don't think it has a chance at the state level, especially in California.
CBO's recent pronouncements did not help the cause either.

The report cited is 4 years old and from a consulting company. A CBO level report would be more convincing, but the suspicions of the voters will still kill it.

[Juche]

11. Single payer passed both houses of the California legislature, but it was vetoed by Schwarzenegger

Once a dem governor takes over in California, they will have single payer. Single payer bills pass both houses in that state.

http://www.chcf.org/topics/healthinsurance/coverageexpansion/index.cfm?itemID=119939

http://www.metroactive.com/metro/04.18.07/senate-bill-840-0716.html

S.B. 840 made it through both houses last year, but was vetoed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Now Kuehl is making a second push. Of the numerous health-care fixes floating around Sacramento, S.B. 840 is by far the most extreme rejection of the current infrastructure, especially with its attempt to write insurance companies out of the equation. But Kuehl says her proposal would provide health-care relief to individuals as well as businesses.

[Selatius]

16. It's an issue of politics. Few Democrats in California want to appear as anti-poor or anti-worker.

So they will naturally find the votes necessary to pass a single-payer bill again and again if need be. The voters would rebel if they don't, and Californians are already unhappy as it is with rising cost of living.

[FreakinDJ]

5. The states that insurance companies start to pull out of

Just as in California's Auto Insurance reforms, once they had to start playing by the rules many companies pulled up stakes and left town

[regnaD kciN]

13. That's the problem...

Here in Washington state (one of the places with bills in the works), there was an attempt to provide universal coverage through state aid and restrictions on insurance company practices back in the 1990s. It fell apart when all four of the "big name" HMOs/insurance companies (who basically cover everyone in the state) retaliated by stopping the sale of individual health policies. If you were insured through your work, you could still have coverage, but, if you purchased it yourself for you and/or your family, you would automatically lose your coverage, and no one would offer you a new policy. In other words, the entire insurance industry instituted a boycott of the state. This forced the leadership to backtrack and, to get the companies to start providing individual policies again, not only rescind the universal coverage plan, but pass a whole new series of laws that allowed insurers to take advantage of consumers in ways that had always been illegal in the state before. The clear message was: don't even think of interfering with us, or you'll wind up worse off than you were before.

[Juche]

15. Fuck em

Single payer makes them irrelevant anyway.

[JVS]

7. Hopefully single payer in OH, PA, and IL will cause companies/ jobs to flee the red states

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. Well Kucinich probably read some CANADIAN history

:-)

[John Q. Citizen]

9. I'm thinking Montana by initiative.

[Juche]

12. I think Illinois might have a realistic chance

Both houses of the legislature there are 60/40 in favor of the dems, so they have supermajorities. The governor is a democrat. The bill The Health Care for All Illinois Act (HB 311) has (to my knowledge) been voted out of committee. If IL and CA get single payer passed, that alone is about 1/6 of the entire nation under a single payer plan just from those 2 states.


http://www.healthcareil.org/311summary.php

[madrchsod]

14. i doubt it....

they won`t raise taxes to properly fund the social services in this state they sure in the hell won`t fund a single payer system. the state is over a 10 billion in the red and they refuse to raise the income tax.