Will the delay on a health care vote help or hurt its chances of passing?

[kentuck]

The conventional wisdom is that the longer a vote is delayed, the better the chances that it will be defeated. This is what happened with the Clinton plan 15 years ago.

But, will it hold true this time around? More and more voters, Democrats and Republicans, have experienced the present health care system first hand and they must know how fragile their health coverage really is?

One thing is for certain, it can never get so bad that the Repubs cannot spin it into something it is not. August will be a critical time for the Democrats if they wish to pass health care. If they go on vacation, literally, and let the issue rest until they get back in September, then it may be difficult to gain any momentum once they return?

August should be the month that the Democrats put the full-court press on selling this issue to the American people. And they have to be sold. There are a lot of arguments against the present system. The Democrats have to take this opportunity to make them.

[4dsc]

1. They need to discuss single payer more

This delay will not hurt Obama's chances of getting reform passed but we should be looking at all options. The current legislation is one big mess from what I can gather and single payer would be so much simpler.

[kentuck]

5. From a purely political strategy point....

They should have started with the single-payer idea and they could have compromised to their plan? As it is, they have nothing on which to compromise.

[spanone]

2. it's set up now that if it fails...it's the democrats fault

[leftofthedial]

4. which is as it should be.

the "democrats" have the ball and are refusing to run with it.

[leftofthedial]

3. hurt

delay is the usual tactic.

get closer to the midterms and support will wither.

[John Q. Citizen]

6. What , exactly, do you understand is being passed? What bill are you talking about?

How can anyone sell a bill that isn't released, and the finance committee hasn't released their bill yet. So what are we being sold exactly?

Thanks for telling me, because i don't know.

I do know that the CBO (the Congressional Budget Office) analyzed HR3200, (the house bill) and said based one what was in the bill that within 10 years time up to 10 million people at most would be enrolled in the so-called "public option." That would mean, at that pace, that within 100 years time less than a third of the country might be enrolled in the public option.

The reason so few would be enrolled is because the public option would only be open to people who for some reason or other couldn't be enrolled in private for profit insurance plans that would be subsidized by tax dollars and means tested, just like the MA Romney Care plan. If you already have insurance, you wouldn't be able to enroll in the public option. If you could find a company, any company that would sell you insurance, then you couldn't be enrolled in the public plan. That is currently the way HR3200 is written, which is why the CBO says that 10 years from now 10 million tops.

So is this what we are discussing in terms of will it help or hurt getting that passed?


Or do you envisions some as of yet unintroduced "Public Option" that would allow anyone to buy into a lower cost government run plan and then you are asking the hypothetical will it help or hurt for this hypothetical plan?

Thanks, I'm just trying to understand your question.

[kentuck]

10. Whatever is passed will not be the final product...

No where close to the final product. It is only the first step. It really doesn't matter that much what the first bill looks like. It is the final product that is important. That is why it is important to pass something. Anything. The first step is the hardest.

[John Q. Citizen]

12. It will only go down hill from what is first passed, though. It will get worse, not better.

Or at least 30 years of precedent tells me that.

Can you offer a counter argument where a bill got significantly more progressive after it was passed in the house? There is the possibility that between now and the time the house takes the bill to the floor that it could get better, but not after it's passed by the full house.


Thanks

Edited to add some stuff and clarify.

Any bill to pass the Senate will need 60 votes. Reconciliation can't be used for a health care reform bill. Clintoin tried and couldn't do that in 93

Also, i was in DC on June 25th and I spoke in person with Dr. Toni Miles, who is a Democratic Staff person for the Finance committee and she told me that health care reform can't be done through reconciliation and any bill passed will require 60 votes since they assume any bill that goes to the floor will be filibustered unless their are 60 votes.

[kentuck]

15. Unfortunately, you may be right.

Nobody thought this would be easy. The People vs the Richest of America.

[John Q. Citizen]

19. Kentuck, I edited and added some stuff and then saw your reply was already there.

I see two things we can probably get out of this whole thing (three actually)but two legislative things.

I assume we will get guaranteed issue and community rating. In fact, in many ways i would prefer these things without the mandatory subsidized insurance because then we would be in a much stronger position and the insurance industry in a much weaker position. The insurance industry would see this as a complete betrayal because they fully expect entry to the public treasury in return for not opposing these measures, but it would be an interesting scenario if it could be pulled off, and in terms of cost, it wouldn't cost the taxpayers a thing.

Also, I think that it's still not too late to use this to galvanize a public bottom up grass roots movement for real change. The problem with the public option from the get go was that the fix was in. The powers that be all met somewhere and decided that the grass roots movement for real reform would be frozen out from the start, and would be supplanted with the bait and switch of the public option. It was sold as a doable stepping stone to single payer and then shrunk to insignificance. We know this was the plan from the start because the criminal insurance industry wouldn't work for any plan that would take away their license to steal and kill.

The political problem with Romney care is that if the American people wanted it, they would have elected Romney. We don't want it. and it doesn't work for anybody except the insurance industries and the politicians they bribe.

If Romney Care is what they pass, I predict major losses for the Dems in 2012.

[LaydeeBug]

7. hurt. nt

[global1]

8. Glass Half Empty Or Half Full.......

we should all look at this as an opportunity. It is time now to get into the faces of our elected officials and tell the Dems - why we put them in office - and the Repugs - why we kicked them out. We also need to tell them that if they want to continue in their cushy jobs - they need to come through for the us now.

Sure they understand the language of $'s from the lobbyists. But those $'s are there only to provide them a means for getting re-elected. I contend that they can have all the $'s in the world - but if - WE THE PEOPLE - don't vote for them - they ain't going back to D.C.

So bottom line - we need to use their vacation period to let them know that they will be on permanent vacation - if they don't come through for us on this health care reform.

Don't be fooled. They all know that "single payer" is the best way to go. We have a chance now to put on a full court press for single payer. They might not go for it - but they'll know that they have to do something and I think we can at least get a strong public option out of them if not more.

The ball is kind of in our court. We need to really put the pressure on them now.

If we don't use this opportunity to put the pressure on them now - they'll only go back to D.C. saying that their constituents don't care. We'll give them an excuse. But if we put a great deal of pressure on them during this vacation - they will feel compelled to do something or suffer the consequences.

[doc03]

9. The delay will kill it

support for it has already faded and after a few more weeks it will go down just like in 1992. I think the only way health-care reform will ever happen is if a Republican does it. Just like Bush's Medicare prescription program, no way would a Democrat ever gotten enough Republican support to pass it. You take NAFTA it took a Democrat to pass that, the Republicans couldn't get enough Democrats on board for that. Anything the Democrats try to do to help the common working American out you get zero support from Republicans. The only time Republicans can support a Democrat is if it is going to help big business or the rich like NAFTA or a tax cut.

[RagAss]

11. I agree...Healthcare is already dead... I don't understand that people ever thought

this would go anywhere....People like to dream, I guess. They like to pretend they can "overthrow" the uber rich who run this country by showing up on election day and voting ....it really is sad. It really is pitiful...and nobody has learned a fucking thing from recent history.

[kentuck]

13. I think Obama mostly agreed with you...

and that is why he did not ask for a single-payer plan. He knew that would be dead in the water. So he thought he could slip some type of reform thru the back door that would work toward a single payer system. But, even that is turning out to be a hard row to hoe.

[rucky]

14. I agree with the full-court press over August.

and return right away for a vote.

[ProSense]

16. No amount of wishing, hoping, RW spin, media lies and pessimism

is going to kill health care. Reform is going to pass.

[kentuck]

17. I like your optimism.

:-)

[John Q. Citizen]

20. What will it look like in your opinion? Is the CBO correct that only 10 million people or

lessw will be enrolled ten years from now and that everyone else will be essentially in the Romney Care private insurance system?

[doc03]

22. It's nice to think positive I guess. But wake up and

smell the coffee, it is not going to happen. You can already see the right wing noise machine is driving Obama's polls in the tank.

[Aslanspal]

18. It is going to happen

August...August...August

You get what you negotiate.


People who voted for change need to get involved again and reinvigorated to make this push in August and come out of it with Health Care bill that we can build upon.


don't give up

[tj2001]

21. Health care delayed is health care denied

The longer the delay the more likely the patient will be gone and buried, as every insurance company knows.

[KharmaTrain]

23. I Think It Helps Passage

It's hard to see the forest through the trees on this one. This issue is so massive and complex and to date all we've heard are theories and talking points. There is going to be some kind of legislation...we've come too far down the road and the White House has put too much effort into it to just walk away.

While it's important to get health coverage to those in need and quickly, there also needs to be time to discuss and understand what is coming out of Washington. Many here were critical of those who didn't bother to read the Patriot Act or were too fast to jump on FISA or other legislation, so why do they want to rush now?

The summer break is going to be crucial here as this is our chance to outshout the corporates and lobbyists who have been spending millions to spin both this debate and politicians. Let each Congresscritter and Senator face their constituents...see the suffering and hear the voices first hand. Also let them know that your vote means more to them than lobbyist cash...that we not only vote, but we also give money and man the phones, knock on the doors and get people to the polls. We also can and will support primary challenges for those who have forgotten how many won their seats.

Cheers...