Plummeting Crime Rates Puzzle Experts...

[spin]

Violent crime has plummeted in the Washington area and in major cities across the country, a trend criminologists describe as baffling and unexpected.

The District, New York and Los Angeles are on track for fewer killings this year than in any other year in at least four decades. Boston, San Francisco, Minneapolis and other cities are also seeing notable reductions in homicides.

"Experts did not see this coming at all," said Andrew Karmen, a criminologist and professor of sociology at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York.

***snip***

Criminologists point to the Great Depression in the 1930s as a time of relatively low crime compared with the Roaring Twenties, when the country experienced more violence.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/07/20/politics/washingtonpost/main5174305.shtml

[Uben]

1. Oh Sh*t !

Now, the republicans are gonna have to hire some criminals to get the crime rate raised so Obama won't beat their presidents!

Not a problem when you think about it. I bet Cheney has some good contacts!

[Johonny]

2. interesting

thanks for the post

[optimal-tomato]

3. It's the hobo society writ large.

Hobos have very strict rules prohibiting violence. When you have nothing but your life, you value safety, and extend that value to the people around you.

If I remember correctly, property crimes are still just as common as they were.

[HughMoran]

4. I figured tough times would see a rise in crime

Perhaps some of those who might commit crimes see us "all in this together" when times are tough.
Perhaps having a black president is a factor.

[spin]

5. As I did. I do believe Obama has made a difference. (n/t)

[otohara]

8. Pride And An Excellent Role Model

makes a huge difference.

A tiny example of someone changing due to Obama...I live in Denver one of our best players on the Denver Nuggets, Carmello Anthony got rid of the cornrows, dropped the baggy look and bling in exchange for nice suits or dress casual - he credits Obama who inspired him to "grow up" be a more responsible man for his kid and community. Allan Iverson did the same thing after the election, he and Anthony were buds - although I never heard Iverson credit Obama - he got traded.

During the campaign, Obama said he was approached by teachers who said their AA students were taking education more seriously - because they now have someone to look up to -

[quiller4]

11. In poor economic times we usually see a drop in violent crime

but that is sometimes accompanied by a rise in petty crime.

[dysfunctional press]

6. "...compared with the Roaring Twenties, when the country experienced more violence. "

pssst...p-r-o-h-i-b-i-t-i-o-n.

[spin]

7. We probably would have much less crime if we legalized...

marijuana.

[Statistical]

24. Liar. Guns cause crime not...

highly profitable enterprises that due to being illegal have no nonviolent method to resolve business disputes.

Seriously if you think of drug gangs as franchises it explains why drug disputes turn violent. Are drug dealers going to hire lawyers to resolve issues of over franchise agreement violations? No of course not, they kill the competition, the cops, the neighbors who might testify, and anyone who happens to get in the way.

How many drivebys have Bush or Miller gangs done lately?

[Number23]

9. This is so interesting! Rec'd

"Criminologists have different theories about why crime is down so much, although many agree that the common belief that crime is connected to the economy is false."

Wow! Who knew??

[paulsby]

10. which is yet another data point

that the so called "experts" in criminology are ANYTHING but.

[crickets]

12. Community and trust

But Lanier said there has been a turnaround in violence this year. She pointed to a better relationship between the department and the community as a factor, saying it has helped get more violent repeat offenders off the streets. She said tips from the community have been flowing faster than ever, due in part to patrol officers knowing their beats and developing connections in the community.

"The community is giving us more information than ever," Lanier said. "They're used to seeing the same cop in the neighborhood every day. They feel comfortable. They have a connection to that officer. They know that officer isn't going to burn them."

Burning them, she said, would be to take information and not act on it, leaving sources to believe police are corrupt or lazy.

To protect and to serve. It's naive to think that's all there is to it, but it definitely goes a long way.

[ControlledDemolition]

13. Did the 'experts' want such an increase? n/t

[jeanpalmer]

14. Putting repeat offenders in jail

has a big effect. Most crimes are committed by repeat offenders. Seems like I remember reading that the burglars commit and average of 50 burglaries before being apprehended. So it's important to get them early -- that prevents a lot of crime.

Also, new forensic capabilities (DNA etc.) have given police the ability to identify many more criminals. When fingerprints were databased, there was a big drop in crime because many crimes that had a fingerprint but nothing to compare it with became solvable

So if a jurisdiction can identify a few more criminals, earlier, voila the crime rate can plummet.

There are other factors of course.

[spin]

15. Some states are considering releasing some criminals ...

because of budget shortfalls.

Some communities and states may have to cut back on law enforcement because of budget constraints.

Wouldn't it be really interesting if the crime rate continued to drop?

[Robb]

16. There's an old joke in small towns

...That if you hire a second police officer, crime will double. :D

And it's true, reported crime increases relative to the number of cops on the beat. I have no idea, but I wonder if there are fewer cops on the street? Budget cuts? :shrug:

[spin]

18. So does the new cop merely catch criminals the first cop....

didn't have time to arrest? Or is it possible that the more cops you have, the more police corruption you have?

[Robb]

19. In the small-town scenario, it's probably the former.

As the equation grows, you probably have both those forces acting.

That said, having come from a rural area where the local sheriff and most of his deputies were put away one year for taking money for looking the other way whilst hundreds of drug shipments moved through the county, corruption comes in small departments as well.

[spin]

21. You can make a lot of money being a cop...

or a politician, for that matter.

[Robb]

23. Old Simpsons episode:

Homer: Union president? What does it pay?
Carl: Nothing...
Homer: Doh!
Carl: Unless you're crooked!
Homer: WOOHOO!

[ThomWV]

17. if someone wanted to bother it would be the easy enough to see if there was correlation

Economic trends are well documented as are crime rates - both back for enough cycles to see if there was any correlation. I personally have no great interest, bit if someone cared how hard could it be to see for themselves?

[spin]

20. A lot would depend on how well criminal data was reported during

the last 100 years.

Our technology has advanced to the point that we now can form a good data base of criminal acts from the entire country.

If you checked the data for say the Great Depression, it wouldn't quite be as accurate. Somewhat like global warming where we have good data the last 150 years or so.

The temperature record of the past 1,000 years describes the reconstruction of temperature for the last 1000 years on the Northern Hemisphere. A reconstruction is needed because a reliable surface temperature record exists only since about 1850.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record_of_the_past_1000_years

[anonymous171]

22. I love how they completely skip over prohibition when they mention crime in the 20s.

Fucking Corporate Media.