How trustworthy if the Congressional Budget Office? Does

[hedgehog]

it come up with straight numbers or the numbers the congress critters want to hear? What about the General Accounting Office?

[prostomulgus]

1. I've wondered about this too.

The CBO has done nothing but fight us all along in various ways. WRT the health care plan, the CBO has been especially hostile and has come up with all sorts of negative "results".

The Director, Elmendorf, was appointed by Speaker Pelosi and President Pro Tempore of the Senate Robert Byrd in January of this year. I suggest that Pelosi & the PPT of the Senate have a little talk with this guy and tell him that, if he can't find some more supportive data on the health care plan, they will find another Director.

These guys must be brought under control.

[John Q. Citizen]

4. There is of course the possibilty that the problem is with the legislation and not with the

analysis of the legislation.

Since Pelosi and Reid were the people who appoint the Director of the CBO, my bet is the problem is with the legislation. You of course are entitled to you own opinion.

Has your analysis of the legislation differed from the CBO's? Have you even read the legislation? Or are you just pissed off that the analysis doesn't support your bias?

I would be interested in your answers to my questions.

The CBO is often asked by congress to defend their analysis, so it only seems fair that you might defend your analysis of the CBO

[John Q. Citizen]

2. the CBO

CBO Fact Sheet http://www.cbo.gov/aboutcbo/factsheet.shtml

CBO's mandate is to provide the Congress with:

* Objective, nonpartisan, and timely analyses to aid in economic and budgetary decisions on the wide array of programs covered by the federal budget and

* The information and estimates required for the Congressional budget process.

Location

The Congressional Budget Office is located on the fourth floor of the Ford House Office Building in Washington, D.C. The building is served by the blue and orange lines of the Washington Metrorail system; the Federal Center SW Metrorail station is across from the Third Street side of the building.


Establishment

CBO was founded on July 12, 1974, with the enactment of the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act (P.L. 93-344). The agency began operating on February 24, 1975, with the appointment of Alice Rivlin as the first director.


Funding

The Omnibus Appropriations Act, 2009 (P.L. 111-8) provided the agency with $44.1 million in FY 2009 funding.


Workload

In fiscal year 2008, CBO issued 39 studies and reports, 3 briefs, 12 Monthly Budget Reviews, 29 letters, 22 presentations, and 2 background papers--along with 7 other publications and numerous supplemental data. CBO also testified before the Congress 30 times on a variety of issues. In calendar year 2008, CBO completed approximately 750 formal federal cost estimates as well as approximately 700 estimates of the impact of unfunded mandates on state and local governments and about 700 estimates of the impact of unfunded mandates on the private sector.

Finally, CBO provides up-to-date data on its Web site, including current budget and economic projections and information on the status of discretionary appropriations.


Appointment of the Director

The Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President pro tempore of the Senate jointly appoint the CBO Director, after considering recommendations from the two budget committees. The term of office is four years, with no limit on the number of terms a Director may serve. Either House of Congress, however, may remove the Director by resolution. At the expiration of a term of office, the person serving as Director may continue in the position until his or her successor is appointed.


Director

Douglas W. Elmendorf is CBO's Director. He has been appointed to serve from January 22, 2009, to January 3, 2011, completing the most recent four-year term of office.


Staffing

CBO currently employs about 235 people. The agency is composed primarily of economists and public policy analysts. About three-quarters of its professional staff hold advanced degrees, mostly in economics or public policy.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

3. About as trustworthy as everything in Congress.

A slight lean towards truthiness.

[Igel]

5. Depends on what it's doing.

It's often wrong. For reasons that can be discussed even before they make their projections.

When it projects future deficits/surpluses, it tends to be off because it has to assume that the future is like the recent past. If productivity's risen by 5% annually in the last 5 years, it will do so for the next 10; if tax revenue's trended up for the last 5 years, it will continue to do so. So the CBO projected a large surplus for the early 2000s when the recession that started in 2001 eliminated the surplus, the tax cuts/stimulus put us in the red, and the Afghanistan (then Iraq) war put us in a deeper deficit. But they weren't able to consider the likelihood of a recession, even when the leading indicators said one was very likely.

They also have to project based on what the best available text of the legislation is. Often they make a projection and then the text changes, but since they don't revise the projection and it's in legislators' interests to not actually understand the projections, it's not obvious that the projection is trashed. So the projection continues to be cited; usually by the time the CBO has weighed in on a proposal the text they had to work with has changed, or they've had to do such a rush job that you can't trust their numbers much. They also can't make assumptions that the legislation doesn't allow--for example, if the legislation for health insurance stipulates some group isn't covered, but during the next election year it's politically impossible for the legislature not to cover that group, however predictable this change may be in the real world it can't be included by the CBO.

They also tend to be fairly conservative in their assumptions. It means they're usually wrong, simply because their assumptions don't pan out. In health care, they almost invariably overestimate savings and underestimate costs.