Two outlooks on the 2010 House races

[DainBramaged]

The first from Raw Story

Democrats poised to lose 20 to 50 seats in House: analysts (according to political analysts quoted in Monday's Politico) :spray: :rofl:

According to two key observers, Charlie Cook and 538.com's Nate Silver, Democrats are poised to lose "double-digit" seats in the House amid an increasingly bitter political climate.

Silver apparently stunned a liberal audience at the blogger convention Netroots Nation earlier this month, saying that the Republicans have a 25 to 33 percent chance of retaking the House. For both observers, such a happenstance seems unlikely, though first- and second-term Democrats appear particularly vulnerable.

http://rawstory.com/blog/2009/08/democrats-poised-to-lose-20-to-50-seats-in-house-analysts/

And then there is CQ Politics;


With 257 of the 435 U.S. House seats, Democrats are strongly favored to retain their majority in the 2010 elections -- though history points to party losses in the first midterm election of President Obama.

Most of the 435 congressional districts have such well-entrenched incumbents that the 2010 House races there will be landslides. But CQ Politics has preliminarily identified 100 districts, 59 of which are held by Democrats, where the contests should be highly or mildly competitive. Of these, CQ Politics rates three districts, all now held by Republicans, as leaning toward takeover by the challenging party: Louisiana 2, Pennsylvania 6 and Illinois 10. (Democrats net gain=3)

http://innovation.cqpolitics.com/atlas/house2010_rr?ref=hp


Who to believe? I don't believe Charlie Cook, and this time I think Nate Silver is WRONG.

[Skink]

1. I'm glad they are competitive now let's make the Senate a parliamentary body...

with atleast a thousand seats.

[DainBramaged]

2. Also shows how little we care about anything more than a day away

no responses, no comments. Maybe I'll just post pictures of Megan Fox instead.

[SidneyCarton]

6. And what does Nate Silver or Charlie Cook have to say about Miss Fox?

Mr. Silver? Mr. Cook? If you're not going to say anything, please refrain from drooling on the furniture. Gentlemen, please!

[DainBramaged]

10. But but isn't OUR opinion relevant?

:crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy:

[SidneyCarton]

11. Well, you could post a poll...

Let me see...

Megan Fox: Hawt or Megahawt?

Hawt

Megahawt

A suffusion of Yellow

Robb is a Dingbat

That might work.

[KittyWampus]

3. I've yet to see exact quotes from Nate Silver regarding that quote. Example, did he qualify

that comment with something like "if Democrats don't pass health care bill".

Has Nate ever expounded on that after so many jumped on it?

I respect him very much and would like context his comment was given.

[WI_DEM]

4. I think we might have strong losses but hopefully not loss of control

One thing I've seen in this health care debate is it appears that conservative activists are more united and outspoken and organized than liberals. In midterm elections when turnout is relatively small THEY WILL TURN OUT. I'm not so sure about liberal base especially if we compromise on health care. Then there are the age demographics. President Obama continues to have his strongest support among 18-29 year olds while, the president's support is softest among seniors who believe that helping more people have insurance will somehow hurt there medicare program. Now, seniors also always turn out and vote while younger voters, especially in midterms do not turn out in large numbers.

Finally, if the economy isn't looking a lot better by October and November of 2010 with unemployment falling then, as is always the case, the party in power will be held responsible, no matter what.

[DainBramaged]

5. i'VE GOT A PARTY IN MY POCKET AND THE ELECTION JUST DON'T MATTER

oOHHH OOOHHH TRIVIAL STUFF, LETS RECOMMEND IT TILL IT'S A ZILLION arrghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[SidneyCarton]

7. No offense to Miss Fox, who is quite attractive...

She always seems to have a bit of a vacant look in the camera. Ahem! Oh yes, our majorities in the House and Senate. I think its early to start assuming. We may lose some seats, particularly in the House, such seems to be the trend in mid terms after a WH victory IIRC, that said, I think a lot will depend on the state of the economy, and the passage of Health Care Reform.

If the Economy goes well, Obama can take credit for it, and this may assist Democrats in Congress.

If HCR is passed, it will show the GOP to be effectively toothless, and possibly weaken their position.

Time will tell.

[PM Martin]

8. If real healthcare reform is not passed

then yes, the congress could be retaken by the Nazis.............err,...I mean the Republicans.

[FrenchieCat]

9. What this tells me is that RAW story isn't anymore interested in context

than other media are.

That's sad to know.