A Win-Win for the Progressive Block?

[t0dd]

Source: OpenLeft

There's lots of worry on the Internets today over a report that the Obama administration will ditch the public option. But I would like to argue that for the progressive block in the House of Representatives it will be a "heads I win, tails you lose" kind of thing.Why?

Win Scenario 1

Let's say, despite reports, that Obama decides to embrace the public option. This is an obvious win for the progressive block and the Democratic party as a whole. Progressives will have flexed muscle and won. Win. People who currently can't afford health care will eventually be able to do so. Win. The activist base of the party (which I would argue is quite large, not just a fringe) would be super enthusiastic and would likely go "all in" on donating and working for the party during the 2010 cycle. Win. Shore up the large Democratic base and Obama's approval numbers will also go back up. Win.

Win Scenario 2

The Obama team tries to lead from the middle and kills the public option in the Senate. The progressive block in the House responds by voting "no" on the resulting crappy health reform measure and the bill is defeated. What's good about this? While obviously not as good as win scenario 1 above, there are benefits to this:

a) In all future legislative fights, the progressive block will have to be bargained with and accomodated. There are more than 3 years left of President Obama's first term and, despite the current mood, a potential 4 years of his second term. That's a lot of bills the progrssive block will be able to mold if they are seen as potential bill killers. If they fold, they'll have no leverage in future fights. None.

b) Health care reform will not be dead if the first bill dies. Just like it won't be dead if Obama decided to veto the first bill. Democrats will still have large majorities in both chambers and can try again. The second time they will have no choice but to accomodate the progressive block.

c) Mainstream Democratic voters are just starting to engage on this issue and if the first bill is defeated may voice their displeasure loud enough for Representatives and Senators to really hear them.

Now, faced with a progressive block that will gain power and influence with either of the outcomes above, what will the Obama team do? My opinion: they really need a bill passed. If the progressive block sticks to their commitment on the public option the White House will have to bend to their will. As Chris has documented there are already enough votes to pass health care reform with a public option if Obama wants to.

The only "lose" secenario for the progressive block: cave in to Rahm Emanuel's scare tactics (which could be intense and convincing) and agree to some kind of crappy compromise. That's just a win for the insurance companies and a loss for any future demands progressives want to make on any future issue.

More here: http://openleft.com/diary/14905/a-winwin-for-the-progressive-block

What do you think will happen?

[Vincardog]

1. I prefer Win Scenario 1

[billyoc]

2. I believe that the progressive block will be strengthened either way.

The might even grow by a few emboldened fence-sitters, if there are any such people left in the House.

[kelly1mm]

3. Scenario #3 - Repubs let a few (enough to counter the progressives)

house members in either a) super safe seats or b) moderate/liberal districts, vote for a bill with mandates, no public option, with some regulations (no caps/no pre existing condition denials) and some type of tort reform to make it palatable for repubs. BIG loss for progressives and the country if that comes to pass.