Health care reform end game. What will actually happen?

[pampango]

It appears that the health care reform end game will come down to whether Obama insists on a public option and, of course, whether anything passes.

1. Obama does insist on a public option and wins. Of course the repubs will cry "socialized medicine" in 2010, but does an Obama victory on a public option cause a downward spiral for the repubs implodes further to the right?

2. Obama insists on a public option, but repubs and blue dogs defeat (or filibuster it to death). Does such a victory for the repubs enable them to "break" Obama as they hope or can we use their rejection of reform against them successfully in 2010?

3. Obama caves in to the blue dogs and a few moderate repubs in order to pass reform, but it doesn't include a public option. Progressives will be disappointed and the vast majority of repubs will still oppose any reform. Does this kind of "victory" weaken support for Obama for the rest of his term or does any "victory" preserve his "political capital".

4. Obama caves on the public option and loses anyway. The worst scenario in the sense that progressives would view him as a sellout who couldn't win anyway and repubs would celebrate a victory over even a weakened reform plan. Would this more likely lead to a repub resurgence like in 1994 or to a stronger effort at "real" health care reform in the near future?

Please vote on which scenario you feel is most likely to actually happen. In your reply you can comment on what you think will likely happen in any or all of the scenarios.

[global1]

1. I Can't Predict What Will Happen On Health Reform But ........

here is what I fear on the fallout.

If Obama either backs down or caves on health reform or worse yet loses - we'll never here the end of it.

I'm sorry but if the President goes the 'trigger', the co-oops (intentional spelling) route - it will only result in him & the Dems shooting themselves in the foot.

Just think of the coverage after the President's speech on the 9th - if he backs away from a 'strong public option'.

The MSM will make mincemeat out of him. Say he lost. Say he wimped out. Say he turned on the people that elected him.

The Repugs and the RW crazies and Fox will gloat on how they beat him and how they will now beat the Dems in 2010 and 2012.

They'll be saying that they're back and how they won. How they in fact stopped the Obama presidency in its tracks.

Obama will be considered a 'lame duck'. He will have failed to bring hope and change.

They will be saying all these things and bottom line the 'birthers', the 'tea baggers', the 'town hall disrupters', the 'gun toters' - essentially the minority - the crazies - will declare a victory.

SO I FEEL THAT - Obama can't back down now.

He and the Dems can't compromise.

There is no turning back.

The President needs to sit on and strong-arm his party and the process now and do whatever it takes to make a 'strong public option' and health reform pass.

He needs to take a tough stance. This is where the rubber meets the road and he makes his presidency and his legacy with this.

I don't know about anybody else here - but I couldn't bear to watch the cable news shows or read the accounts of President Obama caving on this issue.

I couldn't bear to listen to the Rush's, the Hannity's, the Beck's, the Palin's, the McConnell's, the Boehner's, the McCain's, the Bachmann's of the world laugh at and make fun of this President - if he backs down or loses now.

So again I'm encouraging everyone to call the White House today.

Paint this sad picture for them and let them know how they will be portrayed if he backs away from a public option. Let them know how he will have let us down.

Sometimes its good to project an outcome before it happens - and think about how the MSM will report it.

It will be none too pretty if the President and the Dems back off of this now.

The White House Comment Line number is 1-202-456-1111.

Note - I'm not saying he will back down - I'm just saying - this would be the result if he does back down. I want to prevent that - and the only way I know how is to man the phones - call your representatives in D.C. - march on Washington - whatever it takes to prevent this from happening.

[pampango]

2. If he caves on the public option at this point, the repubs and blue dogs will smell blood in the

water. He may look at this kind of compromise as "bi-partisan", but the repubs won't. I think he is better off to push hard for a public option both in terms of principle and hard politics.