scheming daemons
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Fri Sep-04-09 10:23 AM
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Job losses, by month, over past year |
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Aug 2008: -84,000 Sep 2008: -159,000 Oct 2008: -240,000 <---- Market collapse Nov 2008: -533,000 Dec 2008: -524,000 Jan 2009: -598,000 <---- Obama inaugurated Feb 2009: -651,000 Mar 2009: -663,000 <---- ARRA (Stimulus) starts Apr 2009: -539,000 May 2009: -345,000 Jun 2009: -467,000 Jul 2009: -247,000 Aug 2009: -216,000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Now.... looking at those numbers....
Notice what the trend was BEFORE the Stimulus went into effect?
How about the trend AFTER the Stimulus went into effect?
Yes... we are not in positive territory yet. But we've gone from losing 663,000 jobs per month to losing 216,000 jobs per month in the six months that the Stimulus package has been in effect.
It's working. And the trend lines are going to continue moving in the right direction. By January, there will be a "+" in front of the number.
That is what is meant when people say that jobs are a "lagging economic indicator." Panic hits, businesses start to lay off. As the picture brightens, businesses begin to stop the layoffs. As business picks up even more, they start to rehire. That's the order that things happen. Always has been.
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progressoid
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Fri Sep-04-09 10:34 AM
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Layoffs started right after the election so it's obvious that it's Obama's fault.
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HughBeaumont
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Fri Sep-04-09 11:00 AM
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Oregone
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Fri Sep-04-09 10:57 AM
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2. "By January, there will be a "+" in front of the number." |
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From your mouth to God's ears
I think you should just be happy if by January, the losses aren't double what they are now.
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scheming daemons
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Fri Sep-04-09 11:00 AM
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3. Just following the trend lines.... |
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....doesn't mean things can't change though, you're right.
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Oregone
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Fri Sep-04-09 11:03 AM
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5. "trend lines" aren't static and can depend on seasonal conditions |
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What is happening at the end of summer is not a straight line prediction to what will happen in winter. It may suggest that next winter, there will be less bleeding than last. Getting into job gains in the dead of winter seems rather unlikely.
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nadinbrzezinski
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Fri Sep-04-09 11:05 AM
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7. Seasonal jobs for the holiday season |
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tend to squew numbers, as well as layoffs from seasonal work in the summer
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sandnsea
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Fri Sep-04-09 11:04 AM
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All my kids are finally working full time. Things are slowly moving again. At least I hope. It's been an awful summer.
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Fri Apr 26th 2024, 04:49 PM
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