There is a Firestorm Ahead in the Middle East- Neither the US Government or US Public is Prepared

[Orwellian_Ghost]

The Firestorm Ahead


There is a firestorm ahead in the Middle East for which neither the US government nor the US public is prepared. The storm will go from Iraq to Afghanistan to Pakistan to Israel/Palestine, says Immanuel Wallerstein.


There is a firestorm ahead in the Middle East for which neither the US government nor the US public is prepared. They seem scarcely aware how close it is on the horizon or how ferocious it will be. The US government (and therefore almost inevitably the US public) is deluding itself massively about its capacity to handle the situation in terms of its stated objectives. The storm will go from Iraq to Afghanistan to Pakistan to Israel/Palestine, and in the classic expression "it will spread like wildfire."

Let us start with Iraq. The United States has signed a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with Iraq, which went into effect on July 1. It provided for turning over internal security to the Iraqi government and, in theory, essentially restricting US forces to their bases and to some limited role in training Iraqi troops. Some of the wording of this agreement is ambiguous. Deliberately so, since that was the only way both sides would sign it.

Even the first months of operation show how poorly this agreement is operating. The Iraqi forces have been interpreting it very strictly, formally forbidding both joint patrols and also any unilateral US military actions without prior detailed clearance with the government. It has gotten to the point that Iraqi forces are stopping US forces from passing checkpoints with supplies during daytime hours.

The US forces have been chafing. They have tried to interpret the clause guaranteeing them the right of self-defense far more loosely than the Iraqi forces want. They are pointing to the upturn in violence in Iraq and therefore implicitly to the incapacity of Iraqi forces to guarantee order.

...

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=34025

[Mari333]

1. everywhere we go we turn things into shit

if we would stop playing Chest Thumping Imperialist we might not keep finding ourselves stuck in these clusterfcks.

[blindpig]

12. In the end, it's all business,

The business of America is business.
k&r

[SpiralHawk]

2. "See you all at Meggido. Smirk." - CRUsaders (R)

"We will torture you, make you suffer agonizingly, then kick your heathen keesters to Kingdom Come for the glory of oil, gold, power, SHEER-hate-and-fear-born-of-self-loathing, and of course for goold old Almighty What's-HIS-Name."

- CRUsaders (R)

[WCGreen]

3. People keep forgetting the Kurds who desperately want their own

homeland.

Unfortunately for the US, that homeland stretches from Eastern Turkey through Iraq and deep into Iran.

If they see a chance at independence at last, they will take it.

This would probably draw in Europe and most certainly Russia into the conflagration that is the Middle East.

[dixiegrrrrl]

4. I like this point re: Afghanistan:

"The US military is now talking of "succeeding" in perhaps a decade.
Soldiers who think they have a decade to win a war against insurgents have clearly not been reading military history."

[Bandit]

5. It's OK though because "Beginning on Day One".."One Brigade a Month"

It is going on nine months now so we must be just about completely out of there.. We know Obama would not renig on a Promise.

[SammyWinstonJack]

7. Oh never.

We know Obama would not renig on a Promise :thumbsup:

[bvar22]

8. Unlike so many here,

I am cursed with a memory, and expect people to keep their promises.

One Brigade = about 5,0000 troops.
Where are the 45,000 troops coming home?


I DO have to give Obama this:
He sure can give a good campaign speech,
but it is easy when you have no intention of keeping the promises.

[FarCenter]

6. Maybe George Orwell was wrong

The ability of totalitarian states to govern large numbers of people by military and police methods appears to be on the wane, after reaching its zenith with the European empires, including the Soviet Union.

The post WW II history has been one of empires dissolving and formerly monolithic states fracturing along various lines. Yugoslavia is a good example.

Groups are able to form around religious, racial, linguistic, economic and other factors. These groups are able to then combat their overlords and neighbors with an increasingly wide spectrum of effective methods, from sophisticated improvised explosive devices to the plain old machete.

[bvar22]

11. The elements missing from your examples...

...are a sophisticated intelligence gathering and surveillance apparatus coupled with superior propaganda dissemination technology.

"They" NOW have those components in Great Britain and the USA.
Big Brother is alive, well, and in complete control in these two countries.

[RagAss]

9. Bullshit...somebody is trumping up another pre-emptive strike...will we ever fucking learn?

[RagAss]

10. and oh yeah...there's a firestorm ahead on our streets too...the nutjob rw's want it !

[Ghost Dog]

13. Hmmm. "The US (and NATO) forces are there ostensibly to destroy the Taliban."

The OP says:

"The US (and NATO) forces are there ostensibly to destroy the Taliban. And the leading Afghan politicians are debating how to come to political terms with them. There is a serious disjuncture here of appreciation of realities, or perhaps of political objectives."

NATO (& the UN), however, say:

"NATO’s main role in Afghanistan is to assist the Afghan Government in exercising and extending its authority and influence across the country, paving the way for reconstruction and effective governance. It does this predominately through its UN-mandated International Security Assistance Force.

"Since NATO took command of ISAF in 2003, the Alliance has gradually expanded the reach of its mission, originally limited to Kabul, to cover Afghanistan’s whole territory. The number of ISAF troops has grown accordingly from the initial 5,000 to around 50.000 troops coming from 42 countries, including all 28 NATO members.

...

"ISAF is a key component of the international community’s engagement in Afghanistan, assisting the Afghan authorities in providing security and stability and creating the conditions for reconstruction and development." - http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_8189.htm

--> disjuncture of appreciation of realities, indeed.

[Orwellian_Ghost]

14. Kick