The 15% trigger... by the numbers.. $66K becomes $14,038.20

[SoCalDem]

66K gross income seems to be the "magic number". This is for a family of 4, and is the percentage amount that has been determined to be "affordable".

This is for insurance PREMIUMS..not for out-of-pocket medical expenses.

Another thing to consider, is that a $66K income, family of 4, often becomes a $66K family of 3, then 2, as kids age-out, and of course then the trigger "goes away", as the family gets smaller, but the income remains the same.

If we accept 15% as the likely amount, and 30% is considered the norm for housing, we're up to 45% of "gone-before-we see it" money..down the drain.

Now we add in state income taxes (most states have them, and they are going UP UP UP).. California's rate for that income is 9.3%

FICA (combined Soc. Sec & Medicare) is 7.65%

Now we have federal income taxes ..
( http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/displayafact.cfm?Docid=226 )
for that income they are probably 16.78 (although the chart I used shows marginal tax rate of 38%, which seemed too high to me)

That brings us to a whopping 78.73% of that $66K gross income....before we have spent a CENT on "living expenses" other than housing..which is a given, whether you rent or are "buying".

That is $51,961.80...

This leaves that mythical family of four with $14,038.20 to pay for stuff like:

car payments
food
car insurance
medical co-pays
medical expenses not covered by insurance
life insurance
gasoline
electricity
water
tuition *if there are kids in college or near college age
phone
clothing
credit card payments (sucks if you have these)
student loan payments

[stray cat]

1. On the east coast - we are closer to 40-50% for affordable housing

However, the nuts and bolts are that neither health care or housing is cheap - and its not strictly due to artificial mark ups but real costs that someone has to pay. Also, those not insured through work are already paying much more than 15% for health insurance and health care. People ill who can't get insurance or have to pay through the nose also pay much more than 15% - we can't forget those people who would really benefit from the changes already in the bill.

[SoCalDem]

3. It's at least the same out here, but if we use the higher numbers

"some" people then pile on accusing us of deliberately trying to skew the numbers:evilgrin:..so I always low-ball it..

[stray cat]

10. I understand completely - as a transplant from the Midwest

its really expensive for housing on the coasts! :hi:

[lumberjack_jeff]

2. It's premature to debate the math.

Particularly not in such a selective way.

The legislation being considered *all* requires employers of any significant size to pay the lion's share of health insurance.

The bills also cap out of pocket expenses.

The worst case scenario you describe only applies to the self employed, California based, deductionless, $66,000 family of four in your example.

There's plenty to dislike about the way this whole catastrofuck has played out, but rending garments over a distorted view of hypothetical numbers doesn't help.

[valerief]

4. So would the premium be 10% for 1 person? If so...

Gross 66000
Fed tax -12850
State tax -3500
SS -4100
Medicare -950
Mortgage -19800
Home energy -3500
HEALTH INS -6600 (10% for 1?)
Food -4400
Car gas -2400
Car insurance -1500

That leaves 6,400 for:
Car payments, clothing, grooming, communication bills, sales taxes, miscellaneous taxes, home repairs, and anything else.

[lumberjack_jeff]

16. Who pays 13k federal tax, 20k mortgage AND 3.5K state tax on a 66k gross income??

OMG!!!! NO ONE CAN LIVE ON THE INCOME OF WHICH 70% OF HOUSEHOLDS CAN ONLY DREAM!!!

Do you really think that the average $66k single individual pays a $1650 mortgage and $300 for heat? More to the point, should public policy be written for him?

[valerief]

17. Welcome to the Northeast. nt

[rucky]

5. Thank You!

I knew this compromise of a compromise didn't pass the smell test - just didn't know how.

[Paper Roses]

6. Scary numbers indeed. There are also the unexpected things

like a dead furnace, transmission in the old bucket of bolts is shot, heating bills, an occasional trip to the hardware store for a gallon or two of paint or some plumbing supplies so you can do it yourself.

The list goes on and on.

We're in real trouble folks.

[SoCalDem]

9. This is why people are drowning in credit card debt. We ARE already paying this

and MORE..

Many people pay MORE than 30% of gross income for housing and a LOT more than 15% for health insurance, leaving little "extra' to live on, or to use for emergencies..

[Gman]

7. Good analysis

[Autumn]

8. Let's wait and see if they shove the

trigger down our throats , until then there is no point in discussing it. semi :sarcasm:


Edited to K/R

[tavalon]

11. The public option is my compromise

No trigger, no co op. Period. I already did my compromising. I wanted universal healthcare coverage with the insurance companies left out to squabble for scraps. I let that go in favor of the public option. Done compromising.

[Raineyb]

14. Same here!

The public option IS the compromise. This trigger nonsense is sheer fuckery. A lot of nerve from people who don't have to worry about their health insurance getting cut off, expecting us to accept such a sub par package.

[jannyk]

15. Me Too! nt

[bluethruandthru]

20. Obama's biggest mistake was making the public option the pinnacle of his plan.

He should have started with Single Payer and bargained down to a public option open to all - no conditions..and it must be accepted by every doctor, hospital and provider. Thats a compromise.

[bvar22]

25. OBama knows that.

It was no mistake.
It was the plan all along.
One thing we KNOW about Obama....He ain't dumb.

The Wall Street Banks are co-joined to the Health Insurance Industry.
Obama's (and The Democratic Party's) "Health Care Reform" WILL be a massive transfer of wealth to their financiers.

Bet ya.

[AzDar]

30. This.

:thumbsup:

[havocmom]

12. Working people are naught but a conduit for money from business A to business B

We owe our soul to the Company Store. And our back, our sweat, our very blood, and our children's parts

Human beings are more than a means to an end for the richest.

[MadHound]

13. Frankly if there is no true public option in the health care reform bill,

There is no real need to discuss the trigger. The Democrats will have a bigger problem to worry about, namely the massive defeat they will suffer in 2010 and 2012 as liberals flee the party in droves, out of disgust for the Dems' spineless, corporately compromised behavior.

You can discuss the trigger math then, but quite frankly it will be irrelevant since the Dems will be out of power and the Democratic base will be busy building up a true liberal party.

[alcibiades_mystery]

22. Kucinich might actually break 6% nationally

Oh, happy day it will be.

[Motown_Johnny]

18. you could list a couple more expenses

homeowners insurance for one, unless you have that in your 30% for housing



maintenance of your home, appliances and car

saving for retirement

[SoCalDem]

19. I just used the bare bones basics because everyone has different expenses

there's also child support payments for many people, and of course, car repairs :grr:

[alcibiades_mystery]

21. My income's going to remain the same when my 5 month old and 3 year old leave the house?

Wow. Here I thought I wouldn't be dropping $2000 a month on daycare at some point, and that $2000 would become disposable income. I guess I was wrong...

[SmileyRose]

23. I disagree that medical insurance and mortgages are "money down the drain".

However a real discussion about the trigger could be VERY beneficial. Show them we have a choice of catering to Corporate medical lobbyists and go with a trigger that won't give anyone any help until the $66 grand goes over $14,000 for premiums. Which doesn't even take into account the $1000's in deductables and copays -- OR for a straight 10% tax ($6600) we can cover everyone in America on Medicare with only a basic copay for doctor visits and prescriptions.

As soon as you show middle income America they can get a $7000 raise overnight and not lose any quality of care, they'll be in with single payer.

[SoCalDem]

24. "down the drain"./.from this aspect

you cannot negotiate a lower fee, and it's money you have no real control over.. most other bills you can adjust by your usage..but the mortgage is not negotiable, unless you want to move..

[SmileyRose]

26. Very little of what middle America (or lower) spends is negotiable

We can control every budgetary item we spend on to some extent. A smaller house in a not as good a neighborhood, turning down the thermostat, conserving water, buying used instead of new, joining a gardening co-operative to hold down produce costs, there are gazillions of ways to be more frugal.

But when it's all said and done middle America chooses to be frugal for minimal savings. Eventually the money gets spent on SOMETHING. Maybe college for the kids, or retirement, or job loss, or a vacation -- but people tend to be frugal so that they can spend on something else.

I'm on the lower end of the spectrum - my family income is under $35,000 and we manage fine on that. We even save a small bit -- but then we pay $100 a month toward medical care premiums and have been in our house 25 years so it's paid for. My employer pays about $900 a month for my family health premiums for Kaiser HMO. So we come in at $12000 a year for premiums. If the government wanted to see my on paper income raised to $45,800 and then tax me $4580 for medical care -- OR they can tell my employer they have to pay 10% of my gross to Medicare - meaning $3500 - either way I end up with either $1200 more a year that I won't have to contribute to premiums for my other expenses or I end up with a whopping $6220 that my employer won't have to spend on my behalf for premiums and can pay that to me instead.

To me and to most people I know who eventually spend every cent they will ever make, it's just a matter of getting the best bargain so there's a few pennies to do something we'd LIKE to do instead of what we HAVE to do.

[scentopine]

27. $14,000 left over? Simple mistake. They'll redo the numbers...

until it comes out zero.

[SoCalDem]

29. Don't worry.. credit card interest will take care of that

:(

[fascisthunter]

28. sickening, isn't it (nt)