A plan with a public option WILL pass the House... and Baucus' plan will pass the Senate...

[scheming daemons]

..then the real action begins. Reconciling the two bills in committee.


Obama will begin laying the ground work Wednesday night, and the bill that comes out of committee WILL have a public option.

It will pass the House easily.

Then to the senate, where Reconciliation will be used and it will only need 50 votes (with Biden as tie-breaker).

That's where the drama will be and where the arm-twisting by the administration will happen.

They can afford up to nine Democratic defections (since there are only 59 Dems, with Kennedy's seat vacant).

Can the White House hold the defections to 9 or less?



That will determine whether we get a bill passed that has the public option.


Forget all the machinations in the Senate about Baucus' bill. The Senate needs to pass ANY bill, it could say absolutely NOTHING that we like.... doesn't matter. As long as the House bill has the public option, it will likely be in the final bill that comes out of the joint House-Senate committee that reconciles the two bills.


Remember the game that is being played here:

1. *EITHER* the House or Senate bill needs to have a public option, but not both.
2. Get SOMETHING through the Senate, so we can get to the point of merging the two bills in committee.
3. MAKE SURE the merged bill DOES contain the public option.
4. Hold the Senate defections to 9 or less.


That's what is going to happen...

Ignore the wailing and gnashing of teeth here at DU and on DailyKos when the Senate passes a bill that doesn't have a public option. That's just a maneuver to get SOMETHING passed to get to the next step.

[flamingdem]

1. So who might defect and who is twistable .. ? nt

[DJ13]

2. Can the White House hold the defections to 9 or less?

They could IF they want to.

After all, Rahm is sort of the Godfather of many of the recent Blue Dogs, and the WH had no trouble threatening and prodding them to support the war authorization funding.

It depends entirely on whether Obama is solid behind a public option, of if he's now just using it as cover with his pissed off base while he hopes it gets killed off in Reconciliation.

[yodermon]

3. Are all the House versions of the Public Option robust enough?

I trust the Progressive Caucus to ensure that it is.

[dae]

4. That's what I'm hoping is the worst case scenario. The bill

that comes out of reconciliation is a straight up or down vote, or am I wrong?

[eridani]

5. A public option not available until 2013 will cost Dems a lot of support

Do the smart thing and allow people to buy into Medicare voluntarily ASAP.

[scheming daemons]

6. No.. it really won't.... it will be considered a victory

We've waited a decade for health care reform of this magnitude.

Waiting until 2013, when we've been waiting since before WWI when Teddy Roosevelt proposed it, is not that big a deal in the scheme of things.


Progressives in congress will accept that.


And your kids and grandkids who benefit from it, won't remember that it took effect in 2013 instead of 2010.

[eridani]

10. We are looking at a jobless recovery, and the public will jolly well notice that their health care--

--still sucks and is getting worse, through TWO ELECTION CYCLES. Congress and DU may have a lot of policy wonks, but most people pay attention only to what is going on in their immediate lives.

[t0dd]

7. There's the solution.

You tell Blue Dogs it is a less expensive solution since it wouldn't involve the creation of a new government program. You have an existing infrastructure to work with. You remind seniors that allowing others to buy into Medicare can only benefit them (since it would save Medicare from bankruptcy).

[maglatinavi]

9. hc solution

I don't understand how anyone with two inches of brain doesn't see how much will be saved by avoiding uninsured use of emergency rooms... it is below stupid if this were possible... the frigging blue dogs are nothing but lame dogs being given scraps ($$$) from the insurance corps table. And Baucus was an insurance CEO? Give me a break!!! :think: :crazy:
... ... if Obama gives in into them... may the Almighty protectc us... we are doomed...:nopity:

[BzaDem]

8. That's not how it works.

For reconciliation to be used, both the House bill and the Senate bill must be written to use that procedure. You can't pass two blils thorugh normal procedures and then use reconciliation for the conference report. If both bills are passed through normal procedures, the resulting conference report will need 60 votes in the Senate to end debate.

[stevietheman]

12. No, that's not how it works either.

The conference report is essentially filibuster-proof, as a rule. It doesn't matter how the House or Senate legislation was completed before arriving at the conference.

[On the Road]

11. Scheming Daemons, I Believe It Was You

who posted about three weeks ago that the most likely development was a reconciliation process very much like this. And so far, your scenario is dead on.

[scheming daemons]

13. I still think this is how it will go down.....

.... If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.