Japan May See ‘Catastrophic’ Finances Under DPJ, Weinberg Says By Keiko Ujikane and Thomas R. Keene
Sept. 8 (
Bloomberg) -- Japan’s incoming government is likely to favor spending and tax policies that may cause a surge in government borrowing and higher long-term bond yields, said international economist Carl B. Weinberg.
The election win by the Democratic Party of Japan “will set in motion spending plans and tax cuts that will destabilize Japan’s public finances,” Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York, said in an e-mailed response to questions.
Weinberg’s judgment reflects skepticism among private analysts that the DPJ, led by Yukio Hatoyama, will follow through on its pledge to avert an increase in government bond issuance. The incoming administration has said it will pay for its priorities -- increased funds for child care, education and employment -- partly through diverting as much as 5 trillion yen ($54 billion) of stimulus spending already approved.
“A catastrophic breakdown of Japan’s public-sector finances will be the biggest story ever to hit the world economy in our times, eclipsing the current financial crisis,” Weinberg said. “Coming in the midst of the yet-to-be-resolved global financial crunch, it will worsen and prolong that still- unfolding crisis.”
Japan’s bond market has shown little evidence that investors are concerned about the DPJ’s victory. The party unseated the Liberal Democratic Party that held power for most of the nation’s postwar history. Benchmark 10-year bonds yielded 1.355 percent today, compared with 1.31 percent before the Aug. 30 vote. ...........(more)
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