Use your crystal ball: What happens if...

[misanthrope]

...when the health care legislation is through, there is no public option. Insurance companies are required to cover everyone presently uncovered with no "pre-existing" exclusion and those individuals uncovered are fined each year. If people can't afford coverage, government funds are supplied to assist in minimal coverage.

So what happens? What's the fallout? What political prices will be paid and by whom?

[me b zola]

1. We will pay the price

Dems politically, and everyone with their health/lives.

[ddeclue]

2. Enormous windfall for the insurance companies...

being forced to cover pre-existing conditions doesn't say anything about the cost of that coverage - they will exclude those with conditions by charging impossibly high premiums to cover them and those who buy mandated policies will get junk policies that cover nothing meaningful (high deductibles and copays, many exclusions.)

It will be a total sellout without a real public option to keep them honest.

[dflprincess]

14. The public options being pushed right now won't do a whole lot to keep them honest either

but will do a lot to add to their profits.

I do not understand how, when Obama admits the insurance companies are crooks, he expects us to be happy about any bill that mandates we keep paying into them. And, as written in HR3200, it will be years before most of us are able to opt for the public "option" (and calling it an "option" when it isn't is something else that irks the hell of out me).

We're being scammed big time on this.

[Redneck Socialist]

3. That's as good as we'll get

The pukes will make some gains in 2010, but we'll continue to maintain a majority, but do nothing with it.

[DJ13]

4. The GOP will be set for a return to power

It really comes down to that.

The GOP refuse to vote for reform (except Snowe and maybe 1 or 2 others) because they know the insurance companies own enough Dems to pass a really bad piece of legislation that will strain the finances of the middle/lower classes.

They will use the Dem butchered insurance company welfare program to campaign that our party sold out the voters (which will be accurate), and that the mandatory insurance provision is a tax increase.

Which, in effect, will also be true.

Our party will be making the biggest political mistake possible if they do this because it wont just give the GOP an opening to alienate the Democrats with voters, but our party will have permanently alienated the left just after they had built them into a block of voters that would have meant the same kind of long term majority that the Reagan Democrats gave the GOP.

[Donnachaidh]

6. for months we've had the *would you prefer a republican in the WH* thrown at cynics

Well guess what -- the DEMS will bear the brunt of the cause of their return. They've BETRAYED their base - and as well and truly f*cked we are right now with this abomination of Baucus's, I've got to wonder WTF did I vote for anyway?

[DJ13]

8. I've got to wonder WTF did I vote for anyway?

Im asking myself that same question far too often over the last few months.

[misanthrope]

25. I agree...

...This is a unique opportunity and it appears to be slipping away. If the ball is dropped on this, the ultimate result will be an electorate that feels alienated to a degree we've not seen in our lifetimes.

[Donnachaidh]

5. that's just it -- they will offer coverage, but with NO ceiling caps

Those of us with pre-existing conditions will be priced out of the plans. My son will NEVER be offered *affordable* health insurance. So, we pay through the nose to the insurance companies, or we get heavily fined by the government. It's so Orwellian my head is spinning.

We're really careening back to the dark ages with this monstrosity. I was going to joke about the company store, but we'll be indentured servants, paying through the nose and any other orifice while the wealthy elite (and I include our president in this class as of NOW) pat themselves on the back for passing *historic legislation* that just welds the shackles onto the real middle class in this country.

Welcome to hell folks...

[BuyingThyme]

7. I don't know.

[Coyote_Bandit]

9. What happens?

If that scenario does indeed occur then I'm done with Dems. So are a lot of other folks. No need to support those who do not protect or advance my own interests, needs and desires.

It has been well over a decade - nearly 15 years - since I've seen a doctor for any reason. I cannot afford to bide my time and be patient and hope that meaningful healthcare reform is considered again another 15 years from now.

Meaningful healthcare reform is my line in the sand. It is time for Dems to put up. If they don't then they will pay a heavy price - especially given the fact that many have high expectations as a result of the last campaign.

[rucky]

10. So if people can't afford coverage, they're fined...

and the government hands money to the insurance companies.

[dolphindance]

11. Most average people will appreciate the direct effects on them.

Lower premiums, an opportunity to buy cheap coverage if you don't have it, stricter rules on insurance companies.

They don't care if it's a "windfall for insurance companies" because most people are not against businesses making a profit.

The super-lefty, down-with-private-enterprise folks here seem to only want to punish the insurance companies. They don't actually think about the common sense benefits that universal coverage (public option or NOT) might bring.

[Davis_X_Machina]

12. You could have a bill with a *bad* public option...

...even a bad bill with a public option, and it would get cheered to the echo, just because someone said the magic words.

The public option in HR 3200 is already pretty close to that point, and a bad public option could easily emerge from the sausage factory (House-Senate conference committee).

[Donnachaidh]

13. bullshit.

WHERE in any of it does it state that premiums will go LOWER?

WHERE?

This piece of shit is NOT Universal coverage. Not even frigging close. *Common sense benefits*?

Super-lefty? Enjoy your stay on DU. Pizza's on the menu. :eyes:

[dflprincess]

15. Oh, yeah it's universal COVERAGE - because it forces us to buy insurance

what it isn't is universal ACCESS to health care.

The high copays and deductibles the bill (HR3200) allows will still keep people from getting care when they need it.

[Selatius]

18. Yeah, but at that point, Congress won't care.

They will simply say, "Hey, we reformed the system already. What you get is the best we did given the amount of money involved. Now deal with it. We're not going to reform the reform 2 years after the first reform because we broke the bank on this bill." What they won't tell you is they broke it by subsidizing the profits of health insurance giants because that'll just piss off people even more.

Congress didn't touch health care reform again for 16 years after the failure of 1993. I pray they do it right, or we might conceivably face a situation where we're stuck with the current failing system for another 15 or 20 years before something is done.

[Donnachaidh]

20. good luck with that -- because there are some that won't be TOUCHED by the insurance companies

I know from experience.

Forcing people to buy from for-profit companies is total bullshit.

[Davis_X_Machina]

19. You don't read very carefully, do you?

The public option isn't by itself anything but an insurance company, or insurance mall, albeit one run by the government. It could be run well, or badly, or handicapped by whatever rules Congress proposes.

If you include a public option in a bill but do not address the policies it issues -- and it is an insurance 'company', even if run by the government -- you're no further along.

The post office does not give away stamps. The US Coast and Geodetic Survey sell their maps.

The public option is an insurance company -- just not run by a rapacious corporation. It does not usher in the millennium.

A public option could offer insurance policies -- remember that the public option is an insurance company -- that allow recision, might not mandate community rating, not cap have caps on lifetime payouts, have sky-high deductables. It might not have to turn a profit, or pay dividends, but it's going to have to collect premiums, and budget hawks in future Congresses may be no more consumer-friendly than stockholders.

[Donnachaidh]

21. oh blow it out your barracks bag

There is a HUGE difference between the two, and your disingenuous explanation does NOT point out the FACT that what is happening here is the government FORCING people to purchase insurance from for-profit companies. ESPECIALLY with no public option.

No ceiling caps, no real restraints on those companies - just a law telling us we'll be FINED if we don't purchase it.

It's a GIVE AWAY to campaign contributors. It's payback. All on the backs of the people who were CONNED by buzzwords.

[Davis_X_Machina]

22. I'm talking about the public option..

..and you're talking about mandates.

We're talking across each other.

You don't even know what my position on mandates is, or on HCR generally.

And a hearty Go hifreann leat to you, sir.

[misanthrope]

23. "Lower premiums?" What market force will be in effect...

...that will force premiums to lower? In fact, the opposite will hold true. The market, via the mandate, will make sure premiums rise.

[defendandprotect]

16. If this attempt to REFORM and public option go down, I think Obama is toast -- !!!

[Selatius]

17. The Democrats could lose a shit ton of liberal voters in the mid-term elections of 2010.

They will simply stay home like they did in 1994 after both NAFTA passed and the previous health care reform attempt ended in failure.

If enough left wing voters stay home, what happens is Republicans have a real chance of taking back Congress assuming they can energize their base while the Democrats lose energy in theirs.

Edited for clarity.

[WVRICK13]

24. The Democrats Will Pay

in the 2010 elections, the 2012 elections and maybe for the rest of my life. We will be stuck with the fascist Republicans who will allow the insurance companies to use death panels to protect their profits.

[xchrom]

26. kicking for some of the interesting back and forth here. nt