How many Blue Dogs will switch parties if they survive the 2010

[WCGreen]

election cycle and see that the GOP is close to having a majority?

I'm betting that if this scenario plays out, they will all jump...

[ShortnFiery]

1. With respect, all I care about is getting them in line NOW. They should not be controlling

the Democratic Agenda.

[KingFlorez]

2. I doubt it

If the Republicans even came close to having a majority, it would mean most of the Blue Dogs would have been defeated and I don't see that happening. I can't imagine any Blue Dogs switching, the Republican Party has become far too radical for that and Blue Dogs wouldn't fit in as many of them would just end up being considered RINOs.

[WCGreen]

3. In 1994, several what were called Blue Dogs back then jumped ship...

I do hope you are right...

[Freddie Stubbs]

7. Impossible without time travel

The blue Dog Coalition wasn't even founded until 1995.

[WCGreen]

10. Blue Dogs is an expression dating back to the depression...

The Blue Dog Coalition, however, is, as you point out, new.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

13. I think they prefer the term "Blue Poodles". nt

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

9. 1994 was a change that was bound to happen.

We had 12 years of Republicans in the White House, and would've likely had another 4 had it not been for Ross Perot. Democrats were long overdue for losing control of Congress at that point. The pendulum had clearly shifted right by that point, and I think the frustration of losing the Presidency kicked the GOP into overdrive for the 1994 races.

While we're doubtlessly going to lose some seats in 2010, I don't think we're headed towards a "sky is falling" pattern at all. A lot can and will change over the course of the next year, much of it for the better, and things would have to really bottom out for us to reach the point where Blue Dogs would consider flipping.

[kenfrequed]

17. Well terms aside...

Some democrats jumped right and the DLC was sort of in it's heyday adopting repuke terms and ideas that seemed possibly tactically wise but strategically foolish.

The Democrats that switched did so because they thought the challenge from the right would be too great and most of THOSE democrats actually were in districts that were tough. The modern 'Blue dogs' would have far less luck as most of them would be seen as converso-Rinos and ambitious ideologically pure Republicans would wheel out their voting records to overthrow them.

Most Blue dogs are actually from competetive or blue states and they make good trade on the Democratic brand name. Most of them vote the way they do because of campaign contributions and similar connections. They would not make it as republicans because the Republican brand is not popular enough and they can't appeal to enough voters to make switching worthwhile. Many trust to the 'logic' that no democrat would risk a primary/convention battle to get rid of an incumbant for fear of a wild eyed conservative taking power afterwards.


There is also a certain 'fighting the last war' mentality that you find with some of these politicians. The few that have been in for a long time are convinced that the formula that got them elected the first time is the only way to run, vote, sleep, eat, and dance. This extends beyond the conservative democrats and DLC to even nominally moderate candidates (at least socally) like Steny Hoyer. The impulse to ignore seismic changes in the political spectrum is something that causes a certain amount of drag on real attempts at change or reform.

I would also point out that many of the Blue Dogs enjoy their position as being the belle of the ball. Progressives and Democratic wing Democrats have to cajole and pressure and promise favors to maintain their vote and industries and lobbyists are aware of their loyalties and throw tons of money at these most bribable politicians.

[SIMPLYB1980]

4. I wonder how many Blue Dogs will be chased out of the party.

Delivering the county to the republicans once again.

[defendandprotect]

5. Another great point on ridding ourselves of Blue Dogs and DLC . . .

[CaliforniaPeggy]

6. I hope not...

If they do, they will be showing their true colors.

[BlooInBloo]

8. Game over man! GAME OVER!!!

[DJ13]

11. That would defeat the real purpose of being Blue Dogs

Which is to infiltrate our party with conservatives who should be Republicans in an effort to control our government to suit the aims of corporate america.

They want a no lose situation where party makes no difference, and they're so close now they wouldnt think of quitting.

[Individualist]

12. Correct answer!

[jaysunb]

14. Bingo ! n/t

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

15. Oh FFS. n/t

[Kingofalldems]

16. I have noticed when Democrats jump to the GOP they become

hard core conservatives------> John Connolly, Shelby, Zell Miller. Leads me to believe they were hard core cons all along.