question for stock brokers and/or scientists

[Soylent Brice]

i'm doing some research and i'm running into a snag. i'm aware that a lot of brokers are using genetic algorithms and neural nets for stock forecasting and predictions.

what i'm trying to find is data from some of these companies to see whether or not the Nov '08 crash was predicted by any of them, and to what extent.

if anybody has any ideas please let me know. thanks in advance!

[Warpy]

1. The Royal Bank of Scotland

was the only institution I know of to issue early warnings. Whether their math predicted it or they were honest enough to voice the awful realization that conservative dogma had failed them (again) is anyone's guess.

However, if you're looking for institutions relying on esoteric formulas to calculate profit and loss, I'd start there.

[Soylent Brice]

2. excellent! Thank you!

right now i'm searching the IEEE to see if i can find anything. not having any luck. and for wahtever reason, maybe my google fu is not strong this morning, i'm not having much luck anywhere else on the tubez.

i'll start there. again, thank you!!

[Soylent Brice]

7. found what you were talking about:

Royal Bank of Scotland issues global stock/credit crash warning

http://moralequivalentofwar.wordpress.com/2008/06/18/royal-bank-of-scotland-issues-global-stockcredit-crash-warning/

doping more digging.

[Jim__]

3. I can point you at a study from 2009 asking that question - it includes neural nets.

You would have to purchase the study (about $32): A cross model study of corporate financial distress prediction in Taiwan: Multiple discriminant analysis, logit, probit and neural networks models

I wouldn't expect genetic algorithms to have foreseen this. The cause of this was largely AAA rated securities that really had no value. I'm not sure this has happened before, and if it hasn't, it's unlikely that a genetic algorithm would be sensitive to it.

[Soylent Brice]

8. thank you!!

i was just reading another story about a model the Taiwanese were working on in April of last year.

i'll check this out too.

[Kansas Wyatt]

4. I'm sure Web Bot predicted it...

If what they claim about it is true.

[Recursion]

5. Neural nets can make statistical predictions

e.g., "in the next decade we can expect two 3-standard-deviation events like this crash", or whatever, not "it will happen on August 25th, 2008".

[raccoon]

6. I thought they examined the entrails of animals for stock forecasting and predictions.

If you ask me, they might as well.

[BadgerKid]

9. And if so,

did the companies trade on that information? If they trust their models enough to risk real money, it would make the bailout money that more curious....