Group Commissions POLL To PROVE To Blue Dogs PUBLIC OPTION IS POPULAR Amongst Their Constituents.

[Segami]

The Plum Line:


" There’s apparently nothing that anyone can do to convince Blue Dog and conservative Dems that the public option is popular and not all that politically risky, but that isn’t stopping one major liberal group from giving it a big try.


Health Care for America Now, the major umbrella pro-reform group, has commissioned a big new poll of 91 conservative House swing districts — including many Blue Dog and rural ones — that finds the public option has solid majority support among those voters.


The poll and its accompanying memo — which is being circulated among House Dems and was sent over by a source — also send a strong warning to conservative Dems that if health care fails, the resulting damage to the President will rebound on them.


The poll, by respected Dem pollster John Anzalone, finds that 54% of these swing district voters support the public option, and makes the case that these voters emphatically don’t want a “trigger,” the compromise of choice in some quarters:



" The public option shouldn’t be considered in isolation. Including a public option is essential to implementing an individual mandate. Voters also already prefer the implementation of a public option, and do not see a need for a trigger. There’s over-whelming opposition to an individual mandate when the only choices are private insur-ance, but there’s net support for a mandate when people have the choice of a public option. And swing district voters are convinced private sector healthcare has failed to make health care affordable, and prefer the public option now rather than waiting on a trigger option."


It also says that failure to get reform done will be courting disaster, and could rebound specifically on swing-district Dems as it did in 1994:


" Swing District Dems will rise and fall with Obama. A failure on healthcare will likely hurt Obama’s approval ratings and in turn hurt Democrats in 2010, with swing district Democrats particularly susceptible given the competitiveness of their districts. Members need only revisit 1994 to gauge the electoral ramifications (52 lost seats) for the govern-ing party when the President pushes aggressively for healthcare reform but comes up short."


Now the trick will be to get conservative Dems to read this memo and perhaps even allow it to influence their thinking a bit.



<http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/health-care/liberal-group-commissions-big-poll-to-prove-to-blue-dogs-public-option-is-popular/>

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

1. I'd like to see more of their questions.

A couple of the ones they highlighted come awfully close to being of the "push poll" variety. The trick is getting people to believe that a poll commissioned by an obviously biased group with an obviously biased agenda conducted by an obviously biased polling firm is not a push poll. That can only be done by releasing their methodology.

[Segami]

3. Here are the poll questions posed.

Support for Individual Mandate Contingent on Public Option: The polls, conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research and Lake Research Partners for Health Care for America Now in mid-September, each found that likely 2010 voters oppose "requiring everyone to buy and be covered by a private health insurance plan" but support "requiring everyone to buy and be covered by a health insurance plan with a choice between a public option and private insurance plans." A mandate that individuals have coverage or pay a fine is a key feature of health care reform proposals that require insurance companies to cover everyone regardless of pre-existing conditions.

Nationally, voters oppose a mandate to purchase private insurance by 64% to 34% but support a mandate with a choice of private or public insurance by 60% to 37%.

"Requiring everyone to buy and be covered by a private health insurance plan"

National: Oppose 64% to 34%
House Swing: Oppose 60% to 34%
Maine: Oppose 55% to 35%


"Requiring everyone to buy and be covered by a health insurance plan with a choice between a public option and private insurance plans"

National: Favor 60% to 37%
House Swing: Favor 50% to 46%
Maine: Favor 55% to 40%


Note: In all three polls, half of those surveyed were asked each question.


Read more at:

<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mike-lux/the-public-option-fight-g_b_299970.html>

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

5. Thanks - those are better than the ones I saw in the memo.

Namely, this one:
-----------------------------

Which of the following comes closer to your view?
%
The key to health insurance reform is making coverage afford-able to families and small business. As long as we don’t increase the federal deficit, we should invest enough to make sure that health coverage is really affordable to middle-class families and small businesses
70%
It is important that we put a spending cap on healthcare reform at one trillion dollars, so the cost doesn't spiral out of control, increasing our deficit and weakening our economy overall
16%

-------------------------------------------

That one has push poll written all over it.

[DireStrike]

7. Where did you read that question?

I didn't see it at the link.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

8. In the memo from Anzalone. (nt)

[DireStrike]

10. This one? Don't see it in here

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/25/new-progressive-memo-sent_n_299799.html

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

11. Here, bottom of page 4.

http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/FINAL_HCAN_MEMO_-_SEPT_20091.pdf

[DireStrike]

14. Thanks.

You are right, that question sounds push-poll-y.

However the memo does state that the survey described a plan and then asked about that one. That looks pretty clear.

The numbers are likely a little fudged, except obviously the 70-16 one. I don't see any major wording problems with other questions or definitions.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

12. Double post

The interwebs suck sometimes.

[DireStrike]

6. Sounds a bit confusing.

Three polls? Half asked each question? Not sure exactly what that means.

And those aren't questions, they are excerpts from questions.

[Segami]

13. One of the locations polled was ' Maine '.

"The American people, I suspect, get this. The other day, Health Care for America Now released a Lake Research poll of likely voters in Maine. In it, we asked if these voters favored or opposed a statement. We gave one statement to one half of our survey, one to another half. Here are the two statements and the results:


1. Do strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose requiring everyone to buy and be covered by a private health insurance plan?

16% strongly favor, 19% somewhat favor, 21% somewhat oppose, 34% strongly oppose


2. Do strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose requiring everyone to buy and be covered by a health insurance plan, with a choice between a public option and private insurance plans?

31% strongly favor, 24% somewhat favor, 13% somewhat oppose, 27% strongly oppose



<http://blog.healthcareforamericanow.org/>

[sinkingfeeling]

2. And Rep. Mike Ross has been lying is ass off in the local papers. He said the people in his district

were strongly opposed to the public option. But I was on two of his town hall conference calls where he asked the people to vote on several questions; push '1' for yes and '2' for no on your phones. In both August calls the question of a public option to help curb rising costs of private insurance was answered 50-50. So there was no strong opposition at all.

[laughingliberal]

4. Of course there's no widespread opposition to the public option

Except among their corporate masters.

[asjr]

9. They are obviously Blue Cross dogs.