DUers in Germany

[malaise]

How do the Social Democrats look? Is it bye bye Angie?

[muriel_volestrangler]

1. I'm not German, but everything I've heard says that Merkel will stay in power

The question is whether she will need to keep the Social Democats in the coalition or not:

The BBC's Oana Lungescu in Berlin says few doubt that Mrs Merkel - described as the most powerful woman in the world and widely applauded for her steady leadership during the economic crisis - will win another term.

But with one in four voters undecided, she says it remains to be seen if her Christian Democrats and their Christian Social Union sister party can secure enough support to form their preferred coalition with the pro-business Free Democrats.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8276390.stm

[Democracyinkind]

2. some losses for the grand coalitian parties, CDU will lose significantly less than the SPD

maybe CDU somewhere between - 5% and -10%

while the SPD will lose somewhere betwen 10% and 20%

depending on the performance of the smaller parties (FDP, Greens, the new "left"), this will probably mean a small majority for a conservative liberal gov (FDP/CDU) or maybe even survival of the "grand coalition" if the SPD doesn't lose too much.

The only signigficant changes I can see besides the above mentioned would be the chance of the new "left" to make gains up to 10% nation wide, which will severely hurt the SPD. This would also qualify the new "left" for federal subsidies and make them the pre eminent oppisition party.

Absent of some major surprises it is either CDU/FDP or a second term for the grand coalition.

Disclaimer - I'm not german. But pretty near.

[malaise]

3. Thanks for your response

:hi:

[Cid_B]

4. The little lady voted today..

I believe she voted green...

[Democracyinkind]

5. UPDATE: Looks like record-low in voter participation.

This would only reinforce the assesment I made upthread. I'll post the first results as they get in. 1 or 2 hours from now I figure.

[malaise]

6. Thanks n/t

[Democracyinkind]

7. UPDATE: first results in

CDU/CSU (Conservatives) 33.5%

SPD (Social Democrats) 23.3%

FDP (Liberals (as in Business Liberals)) 14.6%

Linke (Neo-Socialists) 12.9%

Greens 10.2%

other 5.5%

-----

So things are pretty much as I described above. Mathematically, it looks like a CDU/FDP coalition has a majority, albeit a very slim one (something that isn't all that important in the german system, there were several good administrations that had only a slim majority). But I'm not so sure that the results are so clear as to make CDU/FDP the only viable solution. Maybe there will be another grand coalition even though neither party really wants that... A bad day for Social Democrats in Germany, but not the predicted catastrophe.

One thing that is apparent that the grand coalition of the last four years has cost both major parties votes.

Also, as I mentioned above, the Neo-Socialists have now "fraction" size on a national level, which makes them a "real" party on the national scene now.
Related to that is the poor performance of the fringe far-right parties. It seems that the neo-socialists took away some of the traditional disenchantment-votes that the far right receives mostly. While I'm ambiguous about the neo-socialists, that surely is a good thing.

[DFW]

8. It's a bit early. My wife voted Green

She tends to split her vote between SPD and Green, but the refusal of the SPD to state flat out that they
would not accept a coalition with Die Linke put her off. She likes Steinmeier (their candidate for Chancellor)
and Steinbrück (their Finance Minister), but does not trust Franz Muntefering, one of their guiding light
elder statesmen (probably headed for full retirement after tonight).

The Left Party, Die Linke, is a coalition of old East German communists and west German SPD and Greens who
thought their parties were not ideologically pure enough. The main Easterner, Gregor Gysi, was a successful
and well-off lawyer under the old East German regime. Their main Westerner, Oskar Lafontaine, had retired,
but couldn't stay out of the limelight he loves (always did), and is considered an inspiration by some, and
an opportunist demagogue by others. Both are clever and Gysi is actually quite a likable character, at least
in public, although capable of some serious BS. I have seen him on some talk shows when I'm here and get in
late. Lafontaine is a nasty piece of work in my opinion, though I vote in the USA, and that of my wife, who
votes here. If Die Linke didn't have the old vestiges of the East German regime's former supporters, I don't
know if they would be a viable national party. Indeed, most of their votes this time came out of the East.
The same has been said of our Republicans, who, without the South, might not be much of a nationally viable
party in the USA any more, either. But Germany does have its East now, and we still have our South, and so
both are forces to be taken into consideration. Both feed on anger and discontent.

Ironically, it appears from polls (to the extent that they can be trusted) that a continuation of the grand
coalition of CDU and SPD was the preference of the majority of the voters. Even my Green-voting wife wouldn't
have had a problem with it. But the refusal of the SPD to put their foot down and say exactly where they stood
on many things put a lot of people off. I'll bet that plenty in the CDU wouldn't have had a problem with a
continuation either, as it meant that their Bavarian rightist wing, the CSU, wouldn't have had as much of a say
in things as they would in a coalition with the FDP. If the CDU goes with the FDP, the CSU will have more sway,
as the CDU majority in the Bundestag would be far narrower, and that would be a real shame. Even so, for the
moment, that's what it looks like.