Do you believe the world will be a better place or a worse place in 50 years?

[Douglas Carpenter]

Much of liberal and progressive thinking has tended to assume that society and the world as a whole gradually improves over time. However, there are some who would argue that the facts don't support such optimism - environmental degradation, likelihood of truly devastating war, deadly and fierce competition over every dwindling resources, overpopulation are just some of the many reason why some would argue that the long-term future sadly looks quite bleak.

What do you think?

[ccharles000]

1. I don't really know.

I would hope better.

[izquierdista]

2. Better for whom?

If it was a lot worse place for 1%, it could be a very, very much better place for 95%

[MineralMan]

3. Sure as heck won't be better for me...

I'll be ashes drifting down the Mississippi system. I guess defining "better" is a good idea...

[Echo In Light]

4. I don't give our species even that long as we've been on a mass race suicide trip for decades

Be it germs, nukes, solar flares, asteroids, self fulfilling prophecy, Nostradamus, biblical, or who knows what...it's obvious that our civilization is teetering on many crucial levels.

[flamingdem]

5. Essentially it's too late for the environment, at least as we have known it

Once the elephants are gone and the polar bears nearly gone ... how can we live with ourselves?

[Morning Dew]

6. I hope it will be better, expect it will be worse and won't be around to see it.

Or maybe I will, but I'm in my 50s now so that's not too likely.

[raccoon]

8. Same here. nt

[Mari333]

11. ditto

[Liberal_in_LA]

36. ditto ditto

[frog92969]

7. 500 years of Dark Age

Or so it is written.
:tinfoilhat:

[Douglas Carpenter]

64. funny you should say that

a professional astrologer, neighbor of mine - a few years back, told me that the world would, in the 21st Century, slide into 500 years of chaos.

I realize that astrology is a bunch of nonsense to a lot of people. But he was actually a very bright fellow (he died a couple of years back) with genuinely critical faculties - and could be quite convincing - even to natural skeptics.

[frog92969]

67. Not all that "funny"

If true it'll be an extremely rough ride for our species,
and brutally transformational.

It's common "knowledge" in some circles.

[Old Hob]

72. Life is, at its root, a struggle to overcome the second law of thermodynamics

which states that the universe is constantly moving towards an increased state of entropy...chaos in other words (Chaos=the opposite of order). Only by adding energy to a localized thermodynamic system is entropy reversed... and that's a problem for us.

[TlalocW]

9. I say better

Because as time goes on, society does become more progressive - maybe not as quickly as we would like, but it does happen. An interesting article I read concerning this took the tack of how conservative positions eventually always go down to defeat. It wasn't the progressives in history that imprisoned Galileo for disagreeing with the church, tried to keep women and minorities from voting, worked against desegregation and rights for all, etc. These things are now - more or less - things that the average American takes for granted and approves of (with the odd conservative troglodyte disagreeing), and it's hard to imagine anyone ever being against them unless you really study history (the one positive for conservatives in the scenario). The fight on the radar now is gay rights/marriage. We're not getting to true equality as fast as we would like, but we are getting there, and I think that it will happen soon enough that 50 years from now, it will be another issue taken for granted and hard for the average person to imagine anyone being against it back in the day.

TlalocW

[Echo In Light]

12. Aside from environmental dilemma, we've only lived w/extinction ensuring weaponry for 60 yrs or so

While I agree that in some ways the public mind has become more progressive due to technology that provides a greater platform to encourage various forms of it, our species has only existed a very short time with nuclear, bio and chemical weapons, set to mass, instantaneous delivery systems that could wipe out most, if not nearly all, life on the planet in under an hr.

So, couple that with the environmental threats, and the long list of social disciplines that are in sharp decline, with seemingly very little that people can do, or are willing to do, in attempts to head off disaster, and ...

[charlie and algernon]

10. it depends if our flying cars and jetpacks show up by then

If I get to my 70s and am still driving on the road, I'm going to be pissed.

[The2ndWheel]

13. Same fundamental problems, different scale

[timeforpeace]

14. Libs believe things get better? Since when? Your recitation of the "facts" proves otherwise, no?

[Douglas Carpenter]

16. I think, based only on my own experience, thirty or forty years ago

most liberals and perhaps even most people believed that the future would be better than the past.

Optimistic humanism certainly was an ingredient in most liberal thinking.

It seems that, "when I was a boy" as the saying goes - many, probably most people thought that science and technology would mean that we would all be working less, having more and enjoying life more with more time off - in the future. Of course this was was based on thoughts of scientific possibility and did no look closely at economic realities of how things actually work.

I recall serious television programs in the mind 1960's that predicted that because of technology - we would all be working no more than three days a week and having to find more fun things to do with all our extra time.

Needless to say, something went wrong.

[Art_from_Ark]

48. Based on my own experience, from the same time frame,

I thought the opposite-- I was scared to death of the future. For some reason, for example, Walter Cronkite's "The 21st Century", which came out around 1968 or so, really creeped me out. I was also creeped out by "2001: A Space Odyssey" and by the assassination of Robert Kennedy. And it didn't help much when that Zager and Evans song "In the Year 2525" came out in 1969.

And it seemed to me that things started going downhill once the '70s came along. Perhaps it was due in part to the ascendancy of Richard Nixon. I don't know. I do think that I had some optimism in the '60s that was fueled in part by Johnson's Great Society public service commercials (and partly by the freshness of youth), but that seemed to diminish once Nixon got in.

[Douglas Carpenter]

56. for me, I think it was in the 70's when basic optimism seemed to dissipate -

The "peace and love" "age of aquarius" feeling pretty much evaporated.

Of course the dismantling of what remained of "the Great Society" programs which were proclaimed by both media and opportunistic politicians to have been a failure was a major blow.

The general them of "Come on people now, smile on your brother - every body get together - try to love one another" was gradually replaced with a philosophy of looking out for number one.

At the same time, the loss of high paying manufacturing jobs and hope that ordinary working people might have well paying jobs for life really accelerated in the 70's.

I suppose the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 truly established the philosophy that selfishness is a virtue.

While all of this was happening, the collapse of a widely accepted authoritarian - religious based value system was replaced in a sizable portion of the population with no value system, except looking out for number one. Thus the idea of striving to make the world a better place for all - became a quaint relic of the past.

Looking at the results of this poll though, I can't help but wonder though, how people can be motivated for working for a more peaceful and just world if most people believe the world is only going to get worse, regardless what they do.

[Art_from_Ark]

58. Then we are in basic agreement here

The things I mentioned from the '60s made me mostly afraid of the distant future, but I was still fairly optimistic about the near future.

Reading your post, I agree with most of what you say. The only thing I might differ on is with your last sentence-- Even if people are feeling nihilistic about the future of society as a whole, they may still feel motivated to at least try to make their own personal spheres a little better.

[Subdivisions]

15. In 30 years, proles will no longer have access to fossil fuel energy. Also,

climate change will bring on extinctions, famine, and pestilence. Earth has long surpassed human carrying capacity.

The future ain't bright. No need for shades 'cause it ain't cool.

[damntexdem]

17. Too many variables for an educated opinion, but ...

I voted for my uneducated opinion: a worse place.

[On the Road]

18. The Pessimism is Disturbing

When did the future go from being a promise to being a threat?

[Echo In Light]

22. "No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible." - Voltaire

[Deja Q]

45. The day DUers froth over the latest glossy gloom'n'doom TV show, that's since when.

:D

[Greyhound]

57. 40 years of lowering expectations, eliminating the social contract from

the national conscience, and looting our national equity?

[skip fox]

19. I voted "better" even though this seems to be a low point because

almost any 50 year span in the past 200 years, with the terrible exception of a few periods (Civil War, Depression, Vietnam War), has been better than 50 years prior.


I.e., 1 step back and 1.1 steps forward.

[ecstatic]

20. A better place for people in other nations

Unfortunately, in this country, for whatever reason, there doesn't seem to be much interest in making sure children actually learn in school or have good eating habits. I see things getting worse in this country but possibly better in other countries.

[Triana]

21. If we don't make some SERIOUS changes, it'll be a HELL of a lot worse. n/t

[slay]

23. Agreed

from pollution to over population to just general stupidity - it's not looking good for the future at all. i understand those who WANT to be optimistic about the future, but the realist in me can look around and see the obvious - things are not good, and are getting worse. :(

[Vincardog]

24. The world will definitely be BETTER in 50 THOUSAND years after we have wiped ourselves out.

[lumberjack_jeff]

25. Better for sulfur-eating bacteria?

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/peter_ward_on_mass_extinctions.html

[proteus_lives]

26. I don't know and neither does anyone else.

It's the ultimate "What-If?" but there are just too many variables.

[MrScorpio]

27. We're fucked nt

Good thing I'll be dead in 50 years

[paulsby]

28. interesting to see that most here can;'t learn from history

my answer is a resounding yes.

the trend has been for the world to become a better place. you can look at almost any statistic (world poverty, longevity, etc.) and see the trend is overwhelmingly towards improvement.

here in the US, let's compare us NOW to 50 yrs ago. sure, we are currently in a recession (and we've had recessions before, they are downtrends within a dominant uptrend), but on almost any front, we are better off.

my personal freedoms are better than in 1959. taxes? better. personal comforts? better. access to information? better. access to cheap, diverse food? better, etc. social justice? etc.

compare 1959 to 1909 and you get the same result

compare 1909 to 1859 (slavery era) and you get the same result.

but we still have the chicken littles here "we're all doomed"

i recently had MAJOR surgery and am currently on disability. that surgery would not have NEARLY as high a chance of being successful 50 yrs ago.

like i said, and that's even considering that we are in a recession (granted, my wife and i have very recession resistant jobs).

were people worse off in 1930 (depression) than 1920? sure. but OVERALL, the trend is up. has been for centuries.

people who can't learn from history, well...

there will always be naysayers, chicken littles, the "we're all doomed" set. they certainly existed 50 yrs ago. good to see some things don't change, like the fact that many people will ignorantly ignore history.

[Douglas Carpenter]

60. that has been my general thinking too...however

there are now some problems facing the world that are distinctly different from threats in days gone bye.

Of course environmental disaster is one at the top of the list. The possibility of major population centers of the world being threatened by rising sea levels triggered by global warming causing the melting of polar ice caps is very real and the very real possibility - if not probability - is supported by mainstream science.

Of course the possibility of a nuclear exchange somewhere that could have catastrophic consequences is all too plausible. A major nuclear incident that causes a long term or even permanent disruption of energy supplies is completely conceivable. Modern agriculture alone - could grind to a halt under such a scenario. A nuclear incident in a major world political or economic capital - would have very long term consequence.

Competition over scarce resources, particularly oil and water can only get worse by the year 2059 - when the world population will most likely be somewhere between nine and ten billion people.

The reality that global economy has shifted from relatively decentralized and labor demand creating, to capital intensive and highly speculative to almost ponzy scheme level is a reality. How does such an economy shift gears.

Yes, in the past there were steady improvements. But the world faces certain threats now - that simply were not major threats on the same global scale during earlier times.

[paulsby]

63. those are all good points

but remember, at almost any point in time there were people who are saying "this time is different", making good points about how the end is nigh etc.

and making similar statements with different "fears du jour"

but it never is.

this is actually one of our catch phrases in the group of guys i do stock trading with. throughout history, in every bull market, every bear market, etc. you always hear "it's different this time". and it aint.

there was a point in time when naysayers were worried about whale oil running out. needless to say, that's not much of a concern any more.

i will admit. i am ultimately an optimist. i love my country, i love the world (as much as i have seen of it), and i have hope for the future.

however, i do believe that this is the historically sensible conclusion.

of course, we have another saying in trading... "past performance is no guarantee of future results" :)

"Competition over scarce resources, particularly oil and water can only get worse by the year 2059 - when the world population will most likely be somewhere between nine and ten billion people."

this is exactly my point. "can only get worse". how do you know this? you don't. we don't even know if we will be using oil as a energy source 50 yrs from now. think about how much more efficient computing power has gotten in 50 yrs.

if we could make similar goals in efficiencies in harnessing energy from various sources (take yer pick - solar, nuclear, or some other yet undiscovered source), oil will be as outdated as whale oil is today.

50 yrs is a long time

[moondust]

29. Exhibit A: George W. Bush.

First U.S. President of not the 16th but the 21st Century in what is supposed to be a democracy where everybody over 18 votes rather than a feudal state of lords and inbred nobility. Many of the idiots and sociopaths responsible for his rise and questionable re-election have already forgotten the multiple disasters he and his political cronies created--all of which may not be entirely survivable even under the very best leadership--and are chomping at the bit to do it again. It's an ominous sign. There is plenty to be pessimistic about.

[Douglas Carpenter]

30. another kick for the next shift

[rd_kent]

31. Only if religion is dead by then.

[Gwereeya]

32. Haven't you heard Sarah Palin???

Jesus is coming back this weekend. Youbetcha!

[Stevenmarc]

33. Well if The Rapture sucks up all the fundi's in the next 50 years it'll be better

[chrisa]

34. The civil war and Chinese/Russian invasions will prepare us

For world war Z, the nazi zombie anihilation that kills us all.

[treestar]

35. It will be a better place

It is always better than it was 50 years previously.

1959 - still had Jim Crow laws in many states, women were all expected to be in the home as submissive wives cranking out kid after kid, relatively primitive state of medicine, etc.

Attitudes generally liberalize over time.

[mwb970]

37. I'm just glad I'm 60 instead of 16.

We had the Beatles, "Laugh-In", John Kennedy, and Martin Luther King. Today's kids are growing up with Beck, Limbaugh, and Hannity. They'll face increasing terrorism, nuclear destruction, global warming, a water crisis, and overpopulation. I wouldn't trade for a million bucks!

[Arkana]

38. We're on a highway to hell...

[wroberts189]

39. You are in a car with no brakes headed for a brick wall at 100mph.

Will you hit it?

[Deja Q]

44. Nope. Grab something called "steering wheel" and turn it.

With careful steering, one can get around the wall.

[Sebastian Doyle]

49. Except the mechanics work for the DLC

and the steering wheel doesn't turn to the left anymore.

[wroberts189]

53. Haha ..funny. Yes if the steering worked you need to go a hard left. nt

[wroberts189]

52. You are too close the wall... steering already failed...nt

[Warren DeMontague]

40. Better.

Like Bucky Fuller, I remain an optimist. I don't give a shit if it's not a popular outlook.

Yeah, I know... One thing many doom-n-gloom "liberals" can agree with the Rapture Ready crowd on- The End is Nigh and We're All DOOOMED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :o



Still, even with all our problems, I think you'd have to be nuts to want to live in 1959 instead of today.

[gleaner]

41. I picked option four ...

too many variables to be able to guess right now. All of the factors that you have set forth as mitigating against a better world were also being discussed when I was a kid in the 60s. Since then we have had both bad and good times and things we could not have forseen then.

For instance who could have imagined Baby Bush and people sitting still for what he was doing, or even personal computers when you get into the technology area.

Or, the worst case scenario, we could be hit by a meteor and nothing would matter very much.;) Still I tend to view history like a pendulum. It moves back and forth from one extreme to another, centers then careens off again. It seems like as good analogy as any other and one I have observed to be true.

[Sebastian Doyle]

42. Unless we completely undo all the damage done since 1980

We are totally, completely, irreversibly fucked. :evilfrown:

[Deja Q]

43. Then enjoy life while you can.

:shrug:

[sudopod]

46. It depends on how much you like robots.

:D

[unkachuck]

47. it will be worse....

....IF we don't TRY to make it better....and I have to believe that most of us will TRY to make this world a better place....otherwise, I couldn't get up tomorrow morning....

....there is no 'end' to the on-going struggle over power and resources....each day, each one of us, has to wage that perpetual battle against the forces of greed....

[bigwillq]

50. Probably worse.

More people means more problems.

[michreject]

51. Why am I in this hand basket?

And why is it getting hot?

[wroberts189]

54. "Something wicked this way comes" ..?

Something that everyone can feel but dare not speak..


Dramatics of a fool or comedian ...or something else?

[Douglas Carpenter]

55. another kick for the next shift

[Juche]

59. Both

Reasons the world will be better:

Medicine will be far more advanced. Efforts to fight severe global poverty ($2/day or less) will be more effective due to better technology. Renewable energy will be dirt cheap. Robotics and IT will be far better. Productivity will be higher. Products will be more reliable. Countries will likely be more free and democratic.

Reasons it will be worse:

A natural resource crunch on almost everything (water, oil, metal, fish, etc) leading to severe problems. Climate change.

[KharmaTrain]

61. Not My Worry...

I won't be around in 50 years...I'm more concerned with the world I live in now. Can't be concerned about something I won't be around to see.

[armyowalgreens]

62. I don't know. I'll let you know in 50 years when I'm 70.

That is assuming that I live to see 70.

[Odin2005]

65. The world will be a much better place in 50 years.

The next 10 years or so will be shitty, but it's all uphill from there, especially as new technologies, like nanotechnology, biotechnology, etc. allow cheap, decentralized manufacturing, powerful tools for reversing environmental damage, more food, much better medical technology, etc.

[eppur_se_muova]

66. if( ) {;} else{;}

If we ever bring population growth under control, the world be a better place.

If not, any and all improvements will prove temporary.

[Douglas Carpenter]

68. a kick again for some more results

[Douglas Carpenter]

69. one more I suppose - at least its something different that Polanski

[Douglas Carpenter]

70. one very last shameless kick...

[Old Hob]

71. How many goldfish can you stuff in a bowl before their world turns to shit?

Contemplate that while pondering what the world will look like in 50 years.

[pampango]

73. Would be interesting to see how one's age affects their optimism/pessimism in this poll.

When I was young, I was more optimistic (because I didn't know any better?) than my parents and their generation. I work a lot with high school and college age students and they are generally a fairly optimistic group (because they don't know any better?). Maybe it's human nature (survival of the fittest) to not be too pessimistic when you have most of your life still ahead of you.