Parade of dopes that predicted the iPhone would fail:

[onehandle]

“There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It’s a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I’d prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.”
Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, 30 April 2007

“Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone… What Apple risks here is its reputation as a hot company that can do no wrong. If it’s smart it will call the iPhone a ‘reference design’ and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else’s marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures… Otherwise I’d advise people to cover their eyes. You are not going to like what you’ll see.”
John C. Dvorak, 28 March 2007

"The only question remaining is if, when the iPod phone fails, it will take the iPod with it.”
Bill Ray, The Register, 26 December 2006

"Apple will likely have a tough time convincing application vendors to build specialized clients for the iPhone until the volumes are there, and the volumes could be limited by the lack of third-party applications – a Catch 22.”
Jack Gold, J. Gold Associates, 10 January 2007

Lots more here:

http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2009/12/01/the-great-iphone-death-watch/

[Deja Q]

1. Not a GD article and I'm surprised Dvorak was against the iPhone...

He's usually a smart commentator and I followed him for years until I stopped subscribing magazines...

[onehandle]

2. LOL! Dvorak also predicted that the iMac and Apple Stores would fail. nt

[tridim]

5. And Steve Jobs predicted the Segway would be hugh!

"Cities will be completely redesigned for the Segway"

[SnakeEyes]

7. Dvorak has made a living trolling Apple users

No idea if he actually believes it but the guy has ALWAYS predicted failure for new Apple products, often used to predict Apple was about to go bankrupt, and has repeatedly wrote about how Apple needs to change this or that or something won't be successful. He is always wrong.

[tblue]

3. There are 3 iPhones in my household of 3.

I am so happy they exist. Long time Macintosh fan and lover of all things Apple. Used to work there. Met my spouse there! They paid for my 6 week sabbatical after 10 years employment. Very fun and very blue company. I would never bet against Apple ever!

[tridim]

4. I learned long ago to never underestimate Apple's marketing department.

However I'm still comfortable saying that their products aren't anything special, they're just marketed well.

[Warpy]

6. I predicted it would fail with me

but that kids would love it.

[Trekologer]

8. Most "industry insiders" just make stuff up

Similar "industry insiders" have been predicting that my company is going to be out of business "by the end of the year" for the last 6 years now. None have admitted that they were wrong, just pulled out some garbage about why they are really right.

[safeinOhio]

9. I hate cell phones

mine is always turned off. Would never buy an Iphone. I'm an old fart that is, for the most part, way behind times. Then this even older guy took time to show me his Ipod Touch. I never even owned a walkman before.
I love my Ipod Touch.

[Robb]

11. Yep. It's all about the "killer app" thing.

...The amazing application for the technology that brings you in.

My dad and the internet, for example. Once he found out he could shop for boats he could never afford with it, he was hooked. Once my mom found out she could get grandbaby pictures on her phone she was hooked.

I never wanted a cell phone. But once I found out I could talk to Mrs. Robb when she was out of town for next to nothing... ;)

[Name removed]

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[rocktivity]

10. "It'll never get off the ground, Orville..."

I knew iTunes Plus wouldn't get off the ground, though...


rocktivity

[Name removed]

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