Is he lying to us? When President Obama talks about withdrawing US forces from Afghanistan in July, 2011, does he mean it? Or is that a clever ruse in order to blunt criticism from the left, and from congressional Democrats, of his decision to escalate the war?
Personally, I'm willing to take him at his word. Why? Because Obama is doing in Afghanistan exactly what he said he'd do during the campaign, after his election, and after taking office. And I don't think he's doing it primarily for political reasons, either. Having had lengthy discussions with many, perhaps most, of Obama's advisers on Afghanistan and Pakistan over the past two years, it's clear to me that those adivsers believe passionately that vital US interests are at stake in that conflict. It's no surprise that they've convinced Obama, too.
Like many others, I hoped that those in the administration, such as Vice President Biden, who wanted to de-escalate the war, would prevail. That's not to say that what Biden reportedly proposed, a limited focus on counterterrorism with a smaller US footprint, was the best option. (I've outlined, at some length, my own views on Afghanistan, including for The Nation, in a recent piece called "How to Get Out." I don't think Obama read it.) But at least what Biden allegedly argued is better than what Obama decided. Still, the point is, unless you've been blinded by the celebrity glare that has surrounded Obama since he burst onto the scene, there's no excuse for being surprised at what he decided. He told us what he thinks many times, he told us what he'd do, and then he did it.
{snip}
Which brings me to the 2011 issue.
It's easy to be cynical about that date. It's conditions-based, the administration says, meaning that the precise nature of the US drawdown in Afghanistan, how fast it might occur, and when it starts exactly are going to be based on many factors: the situation on the ground, the state of the insurgency, the strength of the Afghan army, the role of Pakistan, and many others. Still, for the first time -- and it's not nothing -- the United States has set a sell-by date for its Afghan policy. Obama has declared that the US effort in Afghanistan must show clear signs of success by 2011, or else it's time to pick up the ball and go home. At the same time, if by some miracle the success that the president says he seeks in Afghanistan is achieved by then, as unlikely as that seems, well, then it's time to declare victory and go home, too. So write down that date: July, 2011, and let's hold the president to it. By then, for certain, politics will be a major factor, since Obama will be facing reelection. (And, very possibly, running against General Petraeus.)
So Obama wasn't lying to us in 2008, when he called the war in Afghanistan the "right war." He wasn't lying to us in March, 2009, when he sent the first reinforcements. And he wasn't lying in August, 2009, when he said that the war in Afghanistan was, in his view, a vital national security concern. (Despite the fact that Al Qaeda is a shattered, mostly harmless group now and despite the fact that the Taliban, still supported by our ally, Pakistan, hasn't shown any inclination to attack the United States.) If he wasn't lying then, why should we be cynical about his July, 2011, date?
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/dreyfuss/502355/exit_2011
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