CBO report on premiums - Also comments on subsidies

[slipslidingaway]

Posted by Don McCanne MD on Tuesday, Dec 1, 2009

http://pnhp.org/blog/2009/12/01/cbo-report-on-premiums/

"...For most individuals and families, the Senate health care reform bill will have very little impact on the premiums to be paid for health plans. There are three important exceptions:

* Premiums in the individual market will increase significantly because the plans will be required to provide an actuarial value of 60 percent, higher than the average value in the current individual market.

* About 57 percent of individuals eligible for coverage in the exchange will receive subsidies which will more than offset the premium increases. Note that most individuals are not eligible for coverage in the exchange and would not receive these subsidies.

* Although there will be little change in premiums for small group plans, about 12 percent of people in the small group market will benefit from a small business tax credit designed to encourage small business owners to offer coverage to their employees.

The really bad news in this report is that, on average, premiums for group plans will continue to increase at the same intolerable rates that they would have if we did nothing. This CBO analysis demonstrates that, in 2016, the family premium alone for employer-sponsored coverage, not including deductibles and other out-of-pocket costs, would be over $20,000 for a large group plan, whether or not the proposed legislation is enacted. That is quite a hit for a hard-working family with a $60,000 income..."

[slipslidingaway]

1. Thanks for the recs n/t

[bvar22]

2. If the Democratic Party implements this plan.....

...they will be unelectable for a generation.

AND, we get ALL this for only a TRILLION DOLLARS!!!!!!

The Democratic Party has done the impossible.
They have resurrected the Republican Party and bestowed them with credibility for OPPOSING this nightmare.

I PRAY there are enough true Democrats who will vote to OPPOSE this massive transfer of PUBLIC WEALTH to the Corporations.
THEN, maybe we can start from scratch.

[slipslidingaway]

3. Agreed, I have a hard time believing everyone would be buying into this plan ....

if it was proposed by the other party.

Many liberals and liberal groups got everyone on board to back the public option ... thereby silencing the not for profit advocates.

IMO we need to keep the baby boom generation in mind, insurance companies have seen a decline in customers, and as this article states the real trouble begins in 2011 when the number of Medicare enrollees moves from 46 million to 79 million.

Private insurance companies push for 'individual mandate'

http://articles.latimes.com/2009/jun/07/business/fi-healthcare7

"...Still, industry observers say, private insurers need the government's help to transform some of the nation's 45 million uninsured residents into paying customers.

...The industry's real trouble begins in 2011, when 79 million baby boomers begin turning 65. Health insurers stand to lose a huge slice of their commercially insured enrollment (estimated at 162 million to 172 million people) over the next two decades to Medicare, the government-funded health insurance program for seniors. "The rate of aging far and away exceeds the birth rate," said Sheryl Skolnick, a CRT Capital Group healthcare investment analyst.

"This time, you get the sense something is going to happen," he said. "So to stand up and just say no is probably not wise, because politically you could get run over."

For insurers, getting "run over" would be the adoption of a so-called single-payer plan, in which the government pays all medical bills. Such a plan, though widely viewed as politically unfeasible this year, would wreak havoc on the private insurance market. The best way for the industry to preserve the private insurance market -- and derail the campaign for a single-payer system -- may be to go along with more palatable proposals on the table now, said Jeffrey Miles, a healthcare analyst and president of the Miles Organization, a Los Angeles insurance brokerage firm..."