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berni_mccoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 05:19 PM
Original message
The Afghanistan Disconnect
There is a disconnect at Democratic Underground regarding Afghanistan. I can go back in time to 2001 and there was clear opposition to the Afghanistan war on this site. But the vast majority of America, Democrats included, supported the Invasion of Afghanistan. The vast majority also concluded that Afghanistan was a just war. Only now, after 8 years of bad policy and Bush turning his back on the problem in Afghanistan and the International Community who has also made the sacrifice of blood in that country, does a reconsideration of whether or not the war was justified.

I posed the question as a poll here, was the invasion justified? It's a 50/50 split. Had this been asked 8 years ago, the answer would have been quite different, and I believe many have changed their opinion since then.

But that is not the main source disconnect on Afghanistan. The disconnect comes from two points. Those points are:

1. Is Al Qaeda a real threat?
2. Can the situation be made better in Afghanistan?

Again, I posed another poll on the first point. Again, the results are the same. Division, this time a little more people saying AQ is not a threat, but still close to a 50/50 division. One thing is clear. AQ still poses a threat to our soldiers in Afghanistan. The casualty count appears to be growing each month, half of which are due to IED attacks. Obviously, there must be more than 100 AQ in Afghanistan to be causing such a high rate of death and destruction. Yes, AQ is still a threat in Afghanistan. That leads to the obvious question: Why not leave?

Leaving means allowing Al Qaeda to reestablish itself in Afghanistan and continue operating as a terrorist organization. If you do not believe they are a terrorist organization, there is nothing I am going to say to help bridge the disconnect. But if you do consider that most countries of the world also consider AQ to be a terrorist organization, based primarily in Afghanistan with some of it's leadership in Pakistan, then you must consider that leaving Afghanistan will allow AQ to reestablish itself. It is a fact that they will and that the current Afghanistan government is too weak to prevent it.

But staying and further increasing troops in Afghanistan only makes sense if
1. the AQ/Taliban insurgency can be put down and
2. the government of Afghanistan can step up and take over security

In other words, it only makes sense to stay and fight if we can make the situation in Afghanistan better. Many here will not like to admit it, but yes it is possible. That was proven in Iraq. However, the solution in Iraq and the solution in Afghanistan are quite different indeed. Afghanistan was not as developed and lacked the infrastructure and civics that Iraq had. This is a significant difference and it will make the work more challenging and more difficult. But Afghanistan has one thing that Iraq didn't. The support of the world to make it better.

When we invaded Afghanistan as a response to the attacks on 9/11, we did so with the blessing, support and yes, troops of the world. We did not go into Afghanistan alone. Between the UN controlled, NATO commanded force, ISAF, and between the international troops who are members of Operation Enduring Freedom, the world has committed nearly half the troops and resources to the efforts in Afghanistan.

Bush turned his back on this support when he lied us into an illegal war in Iraq. Note that we did not have the support of the world to go into Iraq as we did in Afghanistan. We do not have similar levels of International troops in Iraq like we do in Afghanistan. And we never had the commitment from the world to fix Iraq like we do Afghanistan. In fact, what was lacking in Afghanistan was the U.S. The world continued to support, and escalate, their efforts in Afghanistan while we let them down. Only since Obama has become President has that started to change. And they need more help from us to continue the work and finish the job. There is real work to be done, and it is not all combat. But one thing is certain. We are not alone in solving the problem.

If you believe the invasion of Afghanistan was unjust, then there is a fundamental disconnect between you and I.
If you believe that Al Qaeda is not a real threat, then there is a fundamental disconnect between you and I.
If you believe that the problem can not be fixed, that there is no solution in Afghanistan, then there is a fundamental disconnect between you and I.

There isn't much I can do but offer why I believe we have a chance to succeed in our goals in Afghanistan. These are real goals as set forth by President Obama, back in March of this year when he put forth his Afghanistan strategy. I posted those goals here: (http://journals.democraticunderground.com/berni_mccoy/852). I believe President Obama has the intelligence and fortitude to carry it through. His approach is a stark contrast to NeoCon policy that has been maintained by Reagan, Bush and would have continued under McCain. You are free to disagree. Only time will tell who is right.

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berni_mccoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 05:21 PM
Response to Original message
1. In less than 10 seconds after posting, an uninformed Unrec.
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dgibby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 05:57 PM
Response to Reply #1
9. I believe we have at least one serial unreccer on DU.
If you posted a picture of babies, kittehs, and puppies, someone would unrec it. I equate them to drive-by shooters. Pay no attention. They're just doing it for effect.
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berni_mccoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 12:44 AM
Response to Reply #9
22. lol
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leftstreet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 05:21 PM
Response to Original message
2. Oh bs n/t
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 05:24 PM
Response to Original message
3. NATO expects a commitment of about 5000 new troops from 20 nations
Edited on Thu Dec-03-09 05:26 PM by bigtree
. . . to our 30,000 from our one nation. I think Britain managed 500. Canada and Poland will be gone in 2010. Others will likely follow.

You're stuck in the glory days in the wake of the plane crashes. Times have changed.
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redqueen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 05:39 PM
Response to Original message
4. There are a lot of fundamental disconnects between DUers these days.
Edited on Thu Dec-03-09 05:41 PM by redqueen
Sadly, many can't seem to disagree without being insulting... but that's what happens when you get high on your own self-righteousness.
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berni_mccoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 09:56 AM
Response to Reply #4
25. Indeed.
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Chulanowa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 05:42 PM
Response to Original message
5. What you don't understand...
Is that many DU'ers expected everything to change on January 21, 2009. They thought the moment Obama was sworn in, peace would break out in Iraq, the economy would become perfect, we'd all wake up with health care, and Afghanistan would be a lush, green, liberal paradise.

Feel free to sing your favorite The Lovin' Spoonful song at this point.

When Obama had failed to deliver fixes to eight years of fuckup in as many months, these people went back to trying to equate him to a certain Austrian - if only by proxy chain (If Bush = Hitler, and Obama = Bush, then...)
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NJmaverick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 05:43 PM
Response to Original message
6. Bravo on a master piece of critical thought
There is only one thing that I would disagree on.

Of your 3 disconnects I think the first two are correct. Those are fundamental positions and if you can't agree on them there is a true disconnect. However the third one is a bit more tricky. On that one there can be a wide variety of positions and degrees of disagreement.

On on end that are those that think there is no way to fix the problem. On the other there are people that are sure that the problem can be solved with the surge. You will have others who are convinced that the problem can only be fixed with a price we are unwilling to pay. Still others may think there is a chance the problem can be fixed but they consider the chances too remote or the price too high.

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berni_mccoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 05:46 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. I'm somewhere in the camp of
Edited on Thu Dec-03-09 05:47 PM by berni_mccoy
I believe it can be fixed, I don't know what the fix is, but I think I'll give Obama a chance to solve it, in his way, before I call for an end to it.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 05:52 PM
Response to Original message
8. Whether or not the initial invasion was just is immaterial now.
The first point is moot, in my opinion. It is no longer 2001. 10 year olds have become adults since we have been there. The debate is no longer, was this the right war. The debate is now, how do we get out in the least destructive way?

I am not concerned about AQ, I don't think they are a threat. They are killing US soldiers, because the soldiers are within reach. Are you saying if we leave they will follow us here and attack the US mainland? The soldiers are easy targets. And, as you point out the are dying at an increasing rate. Not because AQ is strengthening, but because we have been increasing our presence and giving more targets.

To support the surge, I would have to believe that 40,000 more troops can, in 18 months, build up and train an Afghanistan army sufficient to ward off AQ and extremist Taliban. I don't buy that. Afghanistan lacks the organization, the infrastructure, the sense of nationhood and the resources to be built up in that short of time. I have heard we are not nation building, but it looks like we are. It isn't a project that can be done in a year and a half, with 40,000 extra troops.

It doubt it will be significantly better off in 2011 than it is now. I also doubt that America has the stomach or the will to give it that long. Next year will be the worse on record for casualties, it is going to be next to impossible for anyone to claim it is any kind of a success. We are screwed and we are stuck. We have doubled down on failure.
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berni_mccoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 06:13 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. It's not immaterial when those who oppose it equate it to other unjustified wars
as a basis for saying escalation is unjustified. That has been an argument here and it is a strawman argument.

If the war was unjust, I would completely be against any form of escalation.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 06:45 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. One can argue the escalation is unjust at this point regardless of
whether they supported the initial invasion.
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C_Lawyer09 Donating Member (690 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 06:22 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. al-Qaeda poses more than a localized threat
al-Qaeda members from overseas have been caught here attempting to perpetrate further attacks. It seems it is a challenge for many to embrace this fact. It is as Al Gore has said of global warming, "an inconvenient truth". It is easy to become complacent, we as a nation have an incredibly short attention span, especially as it relates to world affairs. The intracacies created by constant failing states create a three headed monster of sorts, this is one reason why we set up AFRICOM at Camp LeMoiner at Djibouti. There is actual reasoning other than naivete, that many involved in the realm of intelligence and national security, usually have a far different view point than many on this board. Afghanistan is in no way analogous to Vietnam because of al-Qaeda, their mobile nature, and their fluidity. Unfortunately, many reasonable arugments based on fact, from those in du, are relegated as pro-war for the sake of war. Or secondly, but just as frequently as a way to control resources, pipeline from the Caspian oil fields, etc. It should be noted that the original estimates of what the Caspian oil fields held are far exagerrated. The once advanced figure of 750b barrels is probably closer to 250b, if that. Further the cost to refine this extremely unpure oil would be great. Lastly, it is very telling that the self proclaimed voices of the troops, are usually in disagreement with those whom they purport to speak for. A strictly defensive posture held over time, would be a catastrophic move right now.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 06:44 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. If they are a threat to the US mainland,
we should prevent it here, but I don't see that having anything to do with Afghanistan now.
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berni_mccoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 06:56 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. Then there is little room for discussion between us
Afghanistan is a safe harbor for them. It has been and will be unless we change it. This is part of the fundamental disconnect.
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anonymous171 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 07:16 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. We can't make it better. "Nation building" is a fucking joke.
An external force cannot impose a nation onto people. The will to "nationalize" must come from within.
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C_Lawyer09 Donating Member (690 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 08:19 PM
Response to Reply #16
21. While I would equate Iraq with nation building
I'd equate our efforts in Afghanistan to nation strengthening. A nation cannot be built in Afghanistan, and that is a reality that is obviously realized amongst our DOD and DOS. It is on the other hand a worthwhile and realizable goal to ensure the security of Pakistani nuclear weapons, as it is the goal of enabling a government that is not run by the Taliban.
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 10:39 AM
Response to Reply #21
28. Pakistanis are expecting the escalation to increase the terrorist activity there
How that's interpreted as securing the nukes, I don't know. Besides, our military has said repeatedly that Pakistan's military is doing a sufficient job protecting them and they aren't saying that they're in the danger you posit. At any rate, there's not much our forces in Afghanistan can do about that. If anything, the expected flight of combatants, as a result of the escalation, from Afghanistan into Pakistan will make Pakistan less secure, not more.
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kenny blankenship Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 10:51 AM
Response to Reply #21
29. You folks need to get your story straight! Are we going to leave Afghanistan in 18 months
or are we going to maintain perpetual vigilance against "loose nukes" in Pakistan? It cannot be both.
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C_Lawyer09 Donating Member (690 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 07:56 PM
Response to Reply #12
18. Of course it does
It's basic math. If we leave the growth and training of al-Qaeda operatives unchecked, then we don't have the domestic structure to counter the aftermath. Take a look at border crossings, and the fluid nature of breeched area. The Department of Homeland Security has so much on its plate already. We're still rebuilding the State Dept. staff that was gutted by the Bush admin. Two percent of incoming containers are being inspected. Look, I understand nobody wants war, but please attempt to consider the hard realities. Terrorist threat has not abated. If you don't believe me there are a host of websites that can keep you informed vis a vis threats worldwide. Also realize, the threats that are identified day to day by NSA, CIA, FBI, Border Patrol and a host of other organizations are not daily news. What would make you think the threat dissapeared after 9/11? What would make you think we have the capacity to interdict those who would see us harm? Don't convince yourself that because 9/11 was almost a decade ago the same thing can't or wont happen again.
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berni_mccoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 07:57 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. Nicely put.
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 10:33 AM
Response to Reply #18
27. 9 years in Afghanistan
. . . and terrorist activity has increased in response to our military presence and activity. There's absolutely no guarantee that this course is going to lessen that threat or any others. If history is a guide, this escalation will produce even more resistance, more killings, and more individuals bent on resistant violence against the U.S., our interests, and our allies in proportion with our escalated numbers and escalated offensive mission. You act as if this escalation is guaranteed to prevent all of that. It's a pipe dream.
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cliffordu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 06:46 PM
Response to Original message
14. K&R. Excellent post, Bernie.
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 07:18 PM
Response to Original message
17. "between you and me" NOT "between you and I"
between takes the objective case

other examples:

correct to say, "she asked him and me" but not correct to say, "she asked him and I"
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berni_mccoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 08:05 PM
Response to Reply #17
20. If that's what is important to you... then there is yet another disconnect...
Edited on Thu Dec-03-09 08:05 PM by berni_mccoy
between you and I. :P
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 03:13 AM
Response to Reply #20
24. Al Queda can establish itself anywhere, right now it's looking at Yemen
and other places.....

shall we invade those places, too?

how about occupying Frankfurt?

do you recommend invading there?

Afghanistan = graveyard of empires, losing battle, at the expense of our brave men and women
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kid a Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 12:50 AM
Response to Original message
23. K&R - with respectful skepticism and disconnect with the "fixed" & "solution" parts
Edited on Fri Dec-04-09 12:50 AM by kid a
Just not sure right now.
I am behind Obama for 18 months...then, whew...we'll see.
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xiamiam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 10:28 AM
Response to Original message
26. here is what one afghani woman has to say..please consider her thoughts in your analysis..nt
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berni_mccoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 10:53 AM
Response to Reply #26
30. If you believe leaving Afghanistan will make her situation better
then there is a disconnect between us.
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xiamiam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 09:05 PM
Response to Reply #30
32. she lives there for gods sake..of course i believe her before i believe you..nt
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chowder66 Donating Member (597 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 11:41 AM
Response to Reply #26
31. The other side....
Her thoughts are deeply valid but in the same breath....


http://www.cw4wafghan.ca/news/afghan-women-leaders-ask-troops-stay-now


Afghan women leaders ask troops to stay -- for now
Submitted by cw4w on Thu, 2009-11-12 20:48
in In the News
In Washington and London, politicians debate whether to send more troops to
Afghanistan or pull out entirely. But Afghan women leaders have a different
message: Give us stronger support from the troops and NGOs already here.

much more at the link provided above.


Please weigh both sides. Each is equally compelling. Every view should count.
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