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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 10:40 PM
Original message
How Plurality Voting Endangers Democracy
Our democracy has been greatly injured and continues to be endangered by numerous factors that I and many others have discussed on DU, including the role of money in politics, a corporate controlled news media, unverifiable elections, voter suppression, and powerful interests that exert their influence out of the view of the public. There is much overlap between these various anti-democratic forces, and they reinforce each other. In this post I discuss another anti-democratic process, which is much less discussed than the others: plurality voting.

Plurality voting – the system of voting used in U.S. federal and most state and local elections – is the voting system in which whoever gets the most votes wins, regardless of how many millions of votes they fall short of obtaining a majority. This system produces many anti-democratic effects, and may be a major reason for many of our country’s current problems, including its rule by two parties which in some respects are similar enough that some people consider them to be two wings of the same party.


A good alternative to plurality voting

One very good alternative to plurality voting is instant runoff, majority voting. The concept is very simple: Instead of voting for a single candidate, the voter votes for as many candidates as s/he wants, while ranking them in order of preference. If one candidate gets a majority of the vote, that candidate wins. If no candidate gets a majority, the candidate with the least amount of votes is eliminated, and the votes are counted again. The process is repeated until one candidate gets a majority.

Let’s consider the many ways in which this system or a similar system would enrich our democracy if it replaced our current system of plurality voting.


The most popular candidate would be much more likely to win

First and foremost, majority voting would make it more likely that the most popular candidate would win when more than two candidates run for office. Whenever more than two candidates run for an office, similar candidates are likely to pull votes from each other, thereby enabling a dissimilar candidate to win even if that candidate is the least popular of the bunch.

Consider for example the 2000 presidential election. Among the top three candidates, two (Al Gore and Ralph Nader) were much more progressive than the other one, George W. Bush. Among those three candidates, there is no question that the second choice of most Nader voters was Gore (and I don’t doubt that the second choice of most Gore voters was Nader, though he was much less well known than Gore). With instant runoff voting, voters who voted for Nader would have been given the opportunity to list Gore – or Bush – as their second choice. After less popular candidates were eliminated, Nader would have been eliminated and Nader voters who listed Gore or Bush as their second choice would have had their votes go to their second choice. Nader received more than 97 thousand votes in Florida, a state that Bush “won” by 537 votes. With instant runoff voting, those 97 thousand votes would have gone to Gore and Bush in proportion to the frequency with which the Nader voters listed Gore or Bush as there second choice. That would likely have resulted in Gore receiving tens of thousands more Nader votes than Bush. Gore would have won Florida by tens of thousands of votes. There would have been no recount. Five brazenly corrupt U.S. Supreme Court justices would never have received a chance to weigh in on the election. In short, the election would not have been close enough to steal. George W. Bush never would have been president.


American voters could vote their hopes – without having to settle for the lesser of two evils

Millions of voters in 2000 (and other years as well), including myself, my wife, and my children, were faced with a dilemma. Al Gore appeared much less liberal during the 2000 election campaign than he turned out to be in later years. Consequently, I and many others wanted to vote for Nader, but we didn’t dare do so because we were afraid of risking the chance that voting for Nader could cost Gore the election and therefore catapult a psychopath to the U.S. presidency. Actually, I faced similar dilemmas in 2004 and 2008.

More generally, American voters often feel forced into voting for what they consider to be “the lesser of two evils”, rather than for the candidate who they really want, because they fear enabling the greatest of the evils to win the election. Is that any way to run a democracy? With instant runoff voting (or other majority voting system), Americans could freely vote for their first choice, without the slightest fear that by doing so they would enable their last choice to win the election by obtaining a majority of votes. And by using this kind of system we would obtain a much better idea of how popular some third party candidates really are.

As former third party U.S. presidential candidate John Anderson explains:

In plurality voting, third-party and independent candidates too often are vilified for daring to offer a new choice, and their would-be supporters are pressured to select the lesser of two evils instead of the greatest of their hopes.


Plurality voting inhibits the creation of third parties

The problems discussed above greatly discourage the development of strong third parties. Potentially strong third party candidates often decide not to run for office because they worry about taking votes away from candidates who most represent their views. Similarly, when they do decide to run, many voters will not vote for them because they fear that they will be throwing away their vote by doing so.

Such inhibitions would be removed by instant runoff or other majority voting system. No candidate would ever again have to worry about taking votes away from other candidates with similar views, and no voter would ever have to worry about throwing away their votes by voting for less popular, but more desirable (to them) candidates.

Consequently, more candidates would run, and when they did run they would get more votes. Getting more votes would attract national attention, thereby putting their party (and themselves) in a better position to win future elections. Our current two major parties would have some serious competition, and they would risk losing power if they failed to comport themselves more in line with the interests of the American people.

Roger Myerson at the University of Chicago discusses the anti-democratic effects of inhibiting third parties in an article titled “Constitutional Structures for a Strong Democracy”:

An individual's right to vote is incomplete without the right to have major political parties competing for (their) vote. So nothing should prevent any national political party from nominating candidates in all elections throughout the nation, as long as the party is endorsed by at least some minimal number…

The simple plurality system… has been widely used in many countries throughout the world, but it creates substantial barriers against the entry of more than two serious parties…

In India before 1967, for example… for the opposition's popular support to be expressed effectively in plurality elections, the various opposition parties had to negotiate agreements to have only one among them competing in each district. In any other competitive market, such agreements to restrict competition would be considered a conspiracy against the public, but in plurality elections such noncompetition agreements are considered responsible political leadership. In plurality elections, voters must be focused on two serious candidates, with an understanding that a vote for any other candidate would be wasted…

The strong incentive against supporting third-parties candidates in plurality elections
should be recognized as a political entry barrier that weakens democratic competition.


The problem of Democratic Party support for conservative candidates

There are many Democratic voters today who are getting sick and tired of their party’s leadership choosing to support conservative candidates in Democratic primaries. Probably those decisions by the Democratic leadership are at least partially driven by its belief that moving to the center will help it win the support of centrist voters – while taking its liberal base for granted. Having little fear of being shunned or attacked from the left, on the theory that liberals have nobody else to vote for, they feel free to pursue such a strategy.

The development of strong third parties will help to torpedo such strategies, while giving voters more choice. The Democratic Party would have to worry more that pursuing centrist policies will give rise to more progressive parties and candidates, as large segments of the American people become disenchanted with having a choice only between a centrist and a far right wing party. And furthermore, even if the Democratic Party continues to pursue a centrist strategy it won’t matter as much because progressive voters will have other candidates to choose from.


There would be little or no need for primaries

Ultimately, one of the major reasons to have political parties is to avoid some of the problems discussed above. What if all eight of the major Democratic Party candidates for President in 2008 had decided to run in the general election? If the Republicans chose only a single candidate to run, none of Democratic candidates would stand a snowball’s chance in hell of winning. Thus the need for primaries.

But with instant runoff voting, all eight of them could have run without hurting the chances of the others. That would have at least partially eliminated the ability of the corporate news media to crown the frontrunners in the Democratic field almost two years before the election. And it is also of significance that John Edwards would have stood a much better chance of winning under those conditions, since polls showed that he was the most popular candidate in the whole field.


Limiting the role of corporate influence

When our elections are narrowed down to two major party candidates, the corporatocracy has a golden opportunity to influence future U.S. policy and legislation by showering money on one or both candidates. But if elections became crowded with several candidates, the opportunities for the corporatocracy to influence them would be much more limited.

The bottom line is that there is unfortunately a large minority of American voters who are inordinately influenced by campaign advertisements – thus providing great advantage to candidates who are supported by the corporatocracy. George W. Bush is a prime example of such a candidate. But the downside for such candidates is that another large minority of American voters is highly suspicious of and alienated from candidates who receive large amounts of corporate support and tow the corporate line at the expense of the American people. In a crowded field, voters like that would rate corporate candidates at the very bottom, thereby tending to cancel out the advantages of corporate support.


The bottom line

The bottom line is that many millions of Americans are sick and tired of an election system in which they are often forced to either vote for the lesser of two evils or throw their vote away. Millions of voters believe that their role in choosing major party candidates to run for high office is greatly limited, and that the process is largely fixed by powerful forces beyond their control. This is reflected in chronic abysmally low voter approval of Congress, as well as chronically low voter turnout. There is no good reason why in a democracy voters have to be presented with such limited choices.

In short, there is no good reason why the leaders of the major political parties should exercise such great control of the political process, beyond the control or even the view of the American people. The elimination of plurality voting would be a major step towards giving American voters more political choices and thereby giving them more control over the issues that affect their lives.
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Ozymanithrax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 10:48 PM
Response to Original message
1. Short of another Constitutional Convention, I can not see any of these
changes occurring in our system.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-03-09 11:44 PM
Response to Original message
2. Why do we need a Constitutional amendment?
According to Matt Gehring, legislative analyst:

Under the U.S. Constitution, states have the authority to conduct elections in a manner of their choosing. Elections have historically been conducted by awarding the office to whichever candidate received the highest number of votes. This, however, is tradition and is not constitutionally required.

http://www.house.leg.state.mn.us/hrd/pubs/irvoting.pdf

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KharmaTrain Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 07:13 AM
Response to Reply #2
10. Because The House & Senate Have The Final Say...
We just saw it in the Franken case...it's up to the states on how they decide to conduct an election and then to certified...afterwards its up to the Senate or House to accept that certification and seat the Senator or Representative. Thus, if either house disagrees with the way a state certifies their election they can refuse to seat the Senator or Rep. And the only way to force that change is a Constitutional Ammendment requiring both houses to seat without any preconditions or certification...and I don't see that ever happening.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 08:15 AM
Response to Reply #10
13. True -- but there are many states and localities in the US that don't use majority voting
Some states require runoff voting for the election of U.S. Senators. That's how Mary Landrieu won her last Senate election. And I don't believe that the Senate even considered stepping in and saying that her election was therefore illegitimate.
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WillYourVoteBCounted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 12:07 AM
Response to Original message
3. IRV sounds good but in real life is another form of black box voting
BRAD FRIEDMAN CALLS IRV A VIRUS.
Instant runoff voting "joins 'Internet Voting' and 'Vote-by-Mail' schemes as the latest bad ideas poised to further cripple American democracy" ~ Brad Friedman , national blogger and sometimes contributor to the Guardian UK
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=7198

IRV USUALLY PRODUCES A PLURALITY WINNER.AND OFTEN SUFFERS FROM MAJORITY FAILURE

IRV has produced a plurality result in 2 out of 3 contests in Pierce Co WA,Out of 20 RCV elections that have been held since the referendum establishing it passed, when IRV was used, it elected a plurality winner.http://tinyurl.com/IRVmajorityfail

IRV IS DIFFICULT AND COMPLEX TO COUNT:
IRV increases reliance on more complex technology, making audits and recounts more prohibitive, further eroding election transparency. Because IRV is not additive, no matter what voting system is used, the ballots, (electronic or optical scan) have to be hauled away from where they are cast to a central location to be counted. This increases the chance of fraud or lost votes. The tallying software utilizes a complex algorithm that makes the process even more opaque.
http://tinyurl.com/tally-irv

THERE’S NEVER ENOUGH VOTER EDUCATION:After 4 years of IRV and a fortune spent each year in San Francisco, a Grand Jury Report: said that poll workers and voters do not understand instant runoff.http://tinyurl.com/sfgrandjury

IRV LEADS TO 2 PARTY DOMINATION
http://tinyurl.com/2partyrule

IRV DOES NOT INCREASE VOTER TURNOUT
http://tinyurl.com/irvturnout

IN FACT, MINNEAPOLIS MN JUST HELD FIRST IRV ELECTION ON NOV 3, AND HAD LOWEST VOTER TURNOUT SINCE 1910 http://www.startribune.com/politics/local/69814067.html

IRV IS COSTLY:

See IRV cost estimates or actual cost information for Maine, Maryland, Minneapolis MN, Pierce County Washington, Vermont and San Francisco.It cost Pierce Co 2 million to implement an uncertified system for 375,589 votes – or $5.33 per registered voter! That is on top of the regular costs of their election system. (And Pierce rejected IRV this Nov 3 by huge majority vote) http://tinyurl.com/irvcosts


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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 12:39 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. The statement that IRV can lead to 2 party domination doesn't make sense
First of all, we already have 2 party domination.

Your link says:

"IRV has entrenched the two-party political system wherever it has been tried.
One reason is because if a voter puts a third party candidate as his or her first choice, it can hurt the chances of the voter’s second choice major party candidate, who could potentially be eliminated in the first round, causing that voter’s last choice to be selected for office.

If a candidate gets so few votes that s/he is eliminated in the first round, that candidate wouldn't have had a chance of winning a majority anyhow. The statement says that you're hurting your second choice by voting for a third party candidate as your first choice. At least by placing that candidate as your second choice you give that candidate a good chance of getting your vote if your third party candidate is eliminated. With plurality voting your second choice wouldn't get any benefit from you at all if you voted for your first choice. Why should voters have to be forced to make such a choice?

Your example about John Edwards doesn't compute either. If there was no Democratic primary, then he and the others would have run together in the general election. If the scandal then hurt his chances he would be eliminated in an early round, and it wouldn't affect the other Democratic candidates.

I'm not against primaries, but why are primaries the only way to get to know a candidate? Why can't you get to know a candidate just as well while the candidate is running in the general election? Anyhow, IRV wouldn't necessarily eliminate primaries. The major parties could decide whether to have them or not. But voters who felt that the primary process was unfair would have the option of voting for whatever candidate they wanted, without letting the major parties dictate their choices.

True, the process can seem complex. Sometimes complexity is needed in order to give us more choices.

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WillYourVoteBCounted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 01:24 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. Ireland, Australia, Malta, and Fiji (IRV countries) all 2 party dominated
In theory, IRV is supposed to help third parties, but in reality, it does not.
The groups promoting IRV don't provide the actual history of IRV.

Look at IRV in real life:

"The three IRV countries: Ireland (mandated in their 1937 constitution), Australia and Malta (and more recently Fiji for a brief period of IRV democracy before its coup) all are 2-party dominated (in IRV seats) – despite having many other features in their governments which would seem much more multiparty-genic than the USA with IRV added will ever have. So you can be sure the USA with IRV would be 2-party dominated too." - from the Center for Range Voting's report "Why does IRV lead to 2-party domination?

http://rangevoting.org/TarrIrvSumm.html

IRV won't hurt a third party candidate if they are already strong, but in that case, there can be a spoiler with IRV, like in Burlington Vermont earlier this year.
See "March 18, 2009 Instant Runoff Voting at its worst in Burlington Vermont"
http://instantrunoff.blogspot.com/2009/03/instant-runoff-voting-at-its-worst-in.html


But IRV will not strengthen a third party where it is already weak.

It is the math of IRV - the more name recognition, the more chances of being ranked 1st, 2nd or at least 3rd. That formula also helps the incumbents, naturally. This November 3 2009, in San Francisco, there was only 1 candidate running for City Attorney, and one candidate for City Treasurer.
http://instantrunoff.blogspot.com/2009/10/san-francisco-instant-runoff-voting.html

The only time IRV has helped a candidate win election in SF was when Ed Jew won a city supervisor race. And since there was a big field of candidates, and thanks to IRV, there was little debate, and
so the media missed the fact that Ed didn't live in his district so wasn't eligible to serve.
Shortly after Ed Jew won, he was arrested by the FBI for bribery.
See "Now, how did this guy get elected?"
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/06/10/EDGCUQBP7F1.DTL&hw=ranked+choice+voting&sn=025&sc=408
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 08:06 AM
Response to Reply #7
11. Many European countries have strong third parties
And their voting system is very different than ours. Their representative, parliamentary system encourages third party voting, in much the same way that IRV would -- by making it safe to vote for third parties.

The idea that IRV would encourage third party voting is not just "theory". We know for a fact that millions of Americans in 2000 wanted to vote for Ralph Nader but didn't because they were afraid of Bush being elected -- a reasonable fear. Every member of my family falls in that category.

If a country uses IRV, as in the examples you give, and that fails to lead to the creation of a strong third party, that doesn't mean that "IRV leads to 2-party domination". How can it be said that IRV leads to 2-party domination when there was already 2-party domination before it was tried? If a third party fails to develop in a country using IRV it could simply mean that the citizens are satisfied with the two parties they currently have. Or it could mean that, because of the threat of a strong third party, posed by IRV, one or both of the other parties began to be more responsive to their country's voters. Or it could mean that it takes more time. There are many possible explanations.
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Blue_Tires Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 10:42 AM
Response to Reply #11
15. the more i read about proportional representation, the more i like it
especially as the nation's demographics continue to grow in size and sub-category....
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anigbrowl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #15
22. I do too, as I come from a country where it exists (Ireland) - but:
it does not provide an automatic fix to the political system. In Ireland we still have 2 main parties and a clutch of smaller ones, an the party in charge is the Irish equivalent of the GOP. They've done a terrible job but they might well stay in power after the next election because of a mix of conservative activism and gerrymandering, where the drawing of district lines is done to favor incumbents.

Proportional representation is a good thing but it doesn't magically cure political problems. In some ways it can slow down change as electoral results deliver a more solid mandate for incumbents. Don't assume it's an instant win or you'll be disappointed.

It does exist in the US by the way; that's how we elect supervisors and the mayor in the city and county of San Francisco. You can promote it at the local level in your own county if you think it has a fighting chance and your state/county allows citizen ballot initiatives.
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Jackpine Radical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 08:59 PM
Response to Reply #5
28. Check out this site for an analysis of various voting schemes:
http://minguo.info/election_methods/condorcet

In every U.S. election, voters who are dissatisfied with both major parties face the classic dilemma of deciding whether to base their vote on principle or pragmatism. Rather than "wasting" their vote on a candidate with no chance of winning, most end up voting defensively for the "Republicrat" they disagree with least just to oppose the one they disagree with even more. Most voters assume that this dilemma is an inherent fact of democracy, but it is not. It is completely attributable to the inadequacy of our current plurality election method, and a simple expansion of voting rights could end it.

The reason we have a two-party system in the United States is widely misunderstood. It is not because the Democrats and Republicans consistently have the best ideas, nor is it because the media or the debate commission shut out the other parties. We have a two-party system because our plurality voting system does not allow voters to fully specify their preferences. This fact is known as "Duverger's Law." To vote for minor parties, voters must effectively withdraw from the races between the two major parties, even though they may have a strong opinion on those races too. Voters who vote for minor parties essentially "waste" their votes and fail to oppose political movements they strongly disagree with. Protest votes may send a "signal," but the unfortunate reality is that they have virtually no direct effect on the actual outcome of elections -- and the indirect effect is usually contrary to the voter's intention.

The right to vote is the foundation of democracy, and a simple expansion of voting rights could improve the democratic process dramatically. Instead of allowing voters to select only a single candidate for each office, they should be allowed to rank the candidates according to preference. Such an expansion of voting rights would allow voters to fully specify their preferences. Although ranked voting may not at first seem important, it could end the two-party system as we know it. It will not make the voters wiser, nor will it guarantee that they will elect better candidates, but it can give them the kind of leaders they really want -- and that is the essence of democracy.

When voters cast their votes in our current plurality system, they are allowed to select only a single candidate for each office. That is far better than no choice at all, of course, but it is nowhere near as good as also being allowed to specify a second and third choice, or beyond. Current voting rights are therefore incomplete. Complete voting rights would allow voters to vote according to their convictions and principles without wasting their vote on a candidate with little or no chance of winning. The rules for determining the winner would be slightly more complicated than they are now, but they would be based on elementary mathematics and should be understandable by virtually anyone old enough to vote.

The proper method of counting ranked votes is called the Condorcet election method, named after the French mathematician who conceived it a couple of centuries ago. The main idea is that each race is conceptually broken down into separate pairwise races between each possible pairing of the candidates. Each ranked ballot is then interpreted as a vote in each of those one-on-one races. If candidate A is ranked above candidate B by a particular voter, that is interpreted as a vote for A over B. If one candidates beats each of the other candidates in their one-on-one races, that candidate wins. Otherwise, the result is ambiguous and a simple procedure is used to resolve the ambiguity. Condorcet voting is explained in more detail elsewhere at this web site.

The Condorcet system allows voters to vote their true preferences without worrying about wasting their vote on a candidate with little or no chance of winning. It frees voters from the possibility that, by voting their true preference, they will neglect to oppose a candidate they strongly disagree with and who could actually win. That is, the Condorcet system eliminates the "horse-race" effect, which forces voters to consider not only which candidate they prefer, but also what each candidate's chances are of winning. It allows voters to vote for the candidate they agree with most rather than against the major-party candidate they disagree with most. In other words, it eliminates the need for defensive or strategic voting.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 10:23 PM
Response to Reply #28
31. That's a very good article
He explains the general concept better than I did in the OP :(

The Condorcet method(s) seems rather complicated. It would take me quite a while to figure out how they compare with the simpler IRV scheme that I discussed in the OP, as well as how they compare with each other. I think it would be very interesting. But they all have substantial advantages over the simple plurality system that we use.
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Jackpine Radical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 11:06 PM
Response to Reply #31
32. He really knocks IRV, says it can lead to anomalous and perverse results.
I think it would be worth your while to explore the entire site. I just sort of skimmed it.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-05-09 12:45 PM
Response to Reply #32
38. I just read the lead article on that subject
"The Problem with Instant Runoff Voting". I'm open to the possibility that Condocet voting is superior to IRV (I'd have to thoroughly read more of the articles and think about it before coming to a decision on that). But I most certainly disagree with some of the statements that imply that IRV is no better than plurality voting.

For example, this one: "Before a third party is competitive, the effect of IRV is equivalent to a plurality system in which all supporters of minor parties are somehow convinced to abandon their principles and vote for the 'lesser of two evils'". Clearly, that cannot be true, and all we have to do to prove that is to look at the 2000 presidential election. If voters would have had the opportunity to rank their second choice when voting for Nader, then surely after Nader was eliminated Al Gore would have received thousands (or tens of thousands) of more votes than Bush in Florida, and would have won the election. How can that be equivalent to plurality voting?

Secondly, he says that once a 3rd party becomes truly competitive, then voting for that 3rd party under IRV can have perverse effects by helping to eliminate your second choice. The example he gives is voting for a strong Libertarian candidate when your second choice is the Republican can eliminate the Republican in the second to the last round, thereby throwing the election to the Democrat. But if the Republican finished last behind both the Democrat and the Libertarian (meaning that it was the first choice of less voters than either the Libertarian or the Democrat), then what chance would the Republican have had of winning the election under the plurality system? As I said, I'm open to the possibility that Condorcet voting could be preferable, but this example certainly doesn't persuade me in the least that IRV is less preferable than plurality voting.

And lastly, he says that under IRV placing a candidate first on the list can actually hurt that candidate's chances. I don't believe that is mathematically possible, but I'll reserve final judgment until I read the rest of the articles.

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pattyt Donating Member (10 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-05-09 02:38 AM
Response to Reply #28
34. IRV doesn't provide a Condorcet Winner
And here's the study by the University of Vermont:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=img9y2AYTQA
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WillYourVoteBCounted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 12:10 AM
Response to Original message
4. and primaries are a good thing
they give voters a chance to learn more about the candidates,
narrow the field,
create discussion, debate.

What if we'd had IRV instead of a democratic primary - we'd possibly have
gotten John Edwards as the Democratic Nominee, and then we'd have lost the election
after he was more publicly vetted, but too late for Dems.

With IRV you do not have that, as evidenced in Minneapolis Minnesota
in their first IRV election. There were no mayoral debates,
and turnout was lowest in over 100 years.
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pattyt Donating Member (10 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 01:21 AM
Response to Original message
6. Gore didn't loose the election because of Nader, he lost the election because of Gore.
Al Gore didn't loose the election because of Nader, he lost the election because of Al Gore. Al Gore didn't win his home state of Tennessee, one which he represented many years as a Senator, and whose family has a long history. If he had only done this, what should have been an easy thing to do, he would have been President. But he couldn't even pull that off.

No candidate running in so many years has failed to carry their home state.

Don't blame it on anyone else.

His own home state didn't want his as their President, good lord, what does that tell you?
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WillYourVoteBCounted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 01:26 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. plus an ES&S central tabulator that could only count to 32,767
We had one of those ES&S central tabulators in 2004 that couldn't count past 32,767.
Flipped over like a odometer.

Then there were the Sequoia punch cards shaved a little too close, helping to make it so that
some votes for Gore didn't count.

Plus the voter supression.

Purging voters off the rolls.

Long lines at the polls.

And yes, Gore himself. bless his heart.

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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 08:12 AM
Response to Reply #6
12. There are MANY reasons why Gore lost in 2000
There was the voter purging. There was the butterfly ballot. There was the Supreme Court stopping the vote counting. And there was other cheating as well.

Losing his home state was just one of many reasons why Gore lost. And anyhow, Tennessee is one of the most conservative states in the country -- so what would you expect? It's silly to point to one reason and say that therefore there can't be any other reasons.

Under a majority voting system Bush could not have won Florida, and he could not have won the election. I am not "blaming" Ralph Nader, or anyone else. I'm blaming the voting system.
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pundaint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 07:07 AM
Response to Original message
9. How about just adding a binding "None of the above" choice on all ballots
If none of the above wins, none of the candidates would be allowed to run again until the next cycle and the incumbent would continue on while a new slate of candidates collects signatures. A great way to get rid of bad unopposed incumbents, and also bringing the hand sitters out to get heard.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 01:18 PM
Response to Reply #9
21. That sounds like a very good idea
Why didn't I think of that?
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SnowCritter Donating Member (192 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 10:36 AM
Response to Original message
14. Michelle Bachmann won by plurality
If we'd had IRV (or any kind of run-off voting here in MN) she quite likely would have lost.

Of course, if that HAD happened, we Democrats would have lost our best selling tool. :evilgrin:
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 07:08 PM
Response to Reply #14
27. Still, that seems like a very good selling point for runoff voting
And that reminds me. Palin will probably win the GOP nomination in 2012, largely because in a crowded field she stands out as being very "different" than the rest of the candidates -- whereas she would have a very difficult time winning a majority election anywhere on earth.
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WillYourVoteBCounted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 09:37 PM
Response to Reply #14
29. actually, IRV most often provides a plurality result
but you are assuming that IRV can be counted for statewide contests.

That would mean centrally counting the ballots, and citizens aren't going to trust
an election where the ballots are hauled away from where they are cast, and some time
down the road, counted.

You would also need to have a single ballot for the IRV contests if you want to
imagine that Minnesota is Ireland.

Foreign countries that use IRV or STV usually have only a single item on the ballot,
and they hand count.

IRV is not practical or managable on American Ballots.

IRV is not additive, so you can't tally it at the polling places,
thats a major negative.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 10:06 PM
Response to Reply #29
30. What do you mean when you say that IRV often provides a plurality result?
The rules of IRV say that the election is repeated, dropping out the lowest candidate, until one candidate reaches a majority. If you mean that sometimes the results come out the same either way, then so what? In that case, it's correct either way.
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WillYourVoteBCounted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-05-09 03:37 AM
Response to Reply #30
35. IRV usually plurality win and majority fail. Examples: San Fran, Cary NC, Burlington, Pierce Co
They redefined majority. In Fact, in my state of NC, when IRV supporters realized that IRV was
not providing majority wins, they changed their talking points to say IRV provides a "better plurality" win.

In the US, most IRV elections only can allow voters to rank 3 choices (our ballots are too complex). The US, unlike Australia does not mandate voting or ranking choices, so ballots are "exhausted" more quickly and it is very difficult to get a majority win. In Australia, voters HAVE to vote, and because of that they sometimes "donkey vote", in other words, just pick choices because they have to, not because the choices mean anything to them.

Examples of IRV contests that produce plurality wins or majority failure

San Francisco: Out of 20 RCV elections that have been held since the referendum establishing it passed, when IRV was used, it elected a plurality winner.
http://www.instantrunoffvoting.us/majority.html

Cary, North Carolina: See Cary IRV election results for Oct. 2007. Cary participated in an IRV pilot that year. After running voters 1, 2n and 3rd choices, Don Frantz obtained 1,401 votes, which is 46.36% of all votes cast in the Cary District B contest. He was declared the winner after receiving less than 40 percent of the first-choice votes cast, and less than 50 percent of the votes of people who showed up on Election Day.

COUNCIL MEMBER C-B 1 CARY MUNICIPAL DISTRICT B
Don Frantz . . . . . . . . . . 1,151
Vickie Maxwell. . . . . . . . . 1,075
Nels Roseland . . . . . . . . . 793
WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . . . 3
http://msweb03.co.wake.nc.us/bordelec/downloads/2007OCT_summary-official.htm
The total number of ballots cast in Dictrict B was 3,022.

You can get an engineered majority when you remove Nels Roseland's 793 votes and the 3 write ins.
Here are results only showing vote tallies for top two candidates Frantz and Maxwell
http://msweb03.co.wake.nc.us/bordelec/downloads/cary_irv_results.htm


Burlington: Majority failure.
March 4, 2009 2nd IRV election in Burlington VT does not result in a majority winner!
Bob Kiss had 4313 - or 48.41% of the original 8909, not 51.5%.
Kurt Wright had 4061 - or 45.58% of the original 8909, not 48.5%.
That is because the total number of votes for these two candidates in this round is 8374 -
or 535 less than the original 8909 cast in the first round.
That is why an IRV win is not a true majority win in all but one or two cases because you
never really get a true majority of the first round votes cast.
http://noirvnc.blogspot.com/2009/03/2nd-irv-election-in-burlington-vt-does.html

Pierce County Washington: December 7, 2008 2 out of 3 Pierce County RCV "winners" don't have a true majority Peirce County WA claims to have winners in their RCV races -
but were they real majority wins?

....In order to get a true majority, the winner would have needed 131,224 votes.
The person who led the race in all 4 rounds "won" the RCV race in the 4th round
with 98,366 - 32,858 short of a true majority....
http://noirvnc.blogspot.com/2008/12/2-out-of-3-pierce-county-rcv-winners.html


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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-05-09 12:11 PM
Response to Reply #35
37. Basically, what these articles say is that
Edited on Sat Dec-05-09 12:12 PM by Time for change
IRV will result in a winner who did not obtain a majority on the first ballot. Well, duh! What do you expect? If the first ballot doesn't produce a majority, then of course the eventual winner will not have received a majority on the first ballot. No system could change that fact. Apparently, the authors of these articles have no understanding of the purpose of majority voting processes.
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WillYourVoteBCounted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-05-09 02:39 PM
Response to Reply #37
40. These articles? The election results show majority failure - 20 times + in San Francisco
there's no changing the election data.

IRV does not provide a true majority.

So if you don't like Plurality elections, IRV is not the solution.

Your subject line was about the problem with plurality results.

IRV doesn't solve that problem.

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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-05-09 04:42 PM
Response to Reply #40
41. By your definition of "majority failure", virtually any election with a crowded field would show
majority failure, no matter what method of vote counting was used.
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cjtelesca Donating Member (1 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-09-09 12:42 PM
Response to Reply #37
42. what the articles say is that IRV does not ensure a majority winner in a single election
In the vast majority of elections where IRV is used, it does not ensure a 50% plus one vote majority winner as promised by IRV advocates.

So if you consider this method as being more complex and expensive to administer than plurality elections with no improvement on the process (no majority winner ensured in a single election) - why bother doing it?

If you compare a single IRV election that is designed to replace EITHER a primary or a runoff, IRV fails miserably at the things it promises to do. IRV did not increase voter turnout in many places - the 2009 Minneapolis election had the lowest turnout in 100 years. That's because there was no real chance for voters to hear about the differences between all the candidates - a very crowded field will do that. Partisan primary elections give voters a chance to do that which they do not have with IRV.

With non-partisan elections, runoff are great for the top two candidates to get a chance to tell voters how they would be different from the other candidate.

The real solution to low-turnout elections is voter interest - and IRV doesn't do anything to increase that interest in Minneapolis or in San Francisco either.

And places that have studied IRV (like the MD legislature did twice, and Peirce County did after their IRV election, and other places have done) have showed that IRV costs more money to administer than rarely used runoff elections. And if you are trying to sell me on IRV ensuring majority winners in elections without primaries, sorry but that dog won't hunt.

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certainot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 10:44 AM
Response to Original message
16. like most progressive ideas this would be a lot easier
if the opponents didn't rule the media with their 1000 radio stations and all that coordinated UNCONTESTED repetition.

all reform is about impossible until the left stops ignoring the talk radio problem that has been undercutting democracy for the last 20 yrs, since reagan killed the Fairness Doctrine, making EVERYTHING we do considerably harder.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 12:06 PM
Response to Reply #16
20. Absolutely
That makes it a lot more difficult. Corporate control of the media is a substantially greater problem than plurality voting IMO. And let's not forget the Telecommunications Act of 1996.

And thank God for the Internet, which is allowing American citizens to bypass the corporate media in their quest for information. Hopefully, Democratic Party leaders will take note and begin to ignore the right wing stooges and fanatics of the corporate media.
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bertman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 10:45 AM
Response to Original message
17. Recommend. Good food for thought. Plurality voting would seem to be a bulward to the
two-party-only system, but I haven't given it enough thought yet to have a firm opinion.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 02:46 PM
Response to Reply #17
23. How I think of the bottom line, in a nutshell:
1. With plurality voting, similar candidates will tend to cancel each other out. Therefore, everything else being equal in a 3 candidate race, the conservative will have an easy time beating two liberals, and the liberal will have an easy time against two conservatives.

2. Therefore, political parties must have a process to make sure that their party will be represented by only one candidate (thus the primary process).

3. But the primary process doesn't ensure against an outside threat from a 3rd party.

4. When a third party candidate runs, if that candidate is relatively similar to one of the major parties (e.g. Nader was much more similar to Gore than to Bush), voters inclined towards the party that the 3rd party candidate is similar to will be very disinclined to vote for that candidate, no matter how much they prefer him/her, for fear of throwing the election to the other party.

5. Therefore, it is very difficult for 3rd party candidates to get any traction (Of course there are other barriers to, such as lack of media coverage, which have nothing to do with plurality voting).

6. Majority voting (such as IRV) mathematically eliminates the possibility that voting for any of your top two (or ten) candidates will help your least favorite candidate win, because it is a mathematical certainly that a vote for any other candidate will help prevent that candidate from obtaining a majority, no matter how many counts are performed. Therefore, voters should be free to vote for whomever they most prefer.


Well, that was a bit more than a nutshell, but it was the best I could do :).
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athenasatanjesus Donating Member (592 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 10:47 AM
Response to Original message
18. what difference does this make when the media still controls the outcome
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 03:51 PM
Response to Reply #18
24. Corporate control of the media is one of our most serious obstacles to democracy
As I said in the OP, we are faced with several obstacles to our democracy, and they are related to each other. We need to address all of them.
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Echo In Light Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 10:48 AM
Response to Original message
19. "Politics is the shadow cast by big business over society." - John Dewey
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 05:09 PM
Response to Reply #19
26. That's a good one
A short version of Eisenhower's farewell address.
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AndrewP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-04-09 03:55 PM
Response to Original message
25. I wish
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waiting for hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-05-09 01:15 AM
Response to Original message
33. Wish I could rec - too late but I'll give this a
big kick:

:kick:

Wonderful analysis!
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Confusious Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-05-09 03:50 AM
Response to Original message
36. If we're going to change things,

we might as well go for a parliamentary system.
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Overseas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-05-09 12:48 PM
Response to Original message
39. Kicking. Interesting discussion. Thank you.
I was one of those too afraid to vote for Nader even in my probably safe state because of my fear of Dick Cheney.

I just want a return to auditable paper ballots. Paper and pen. We have enough people out of work to count the ballots by hand.
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