Here it is "Doom and Gloomers" - Read it and Weep

[FreakinDJ]

Just got off the phone with a couple of metal suppliers. In the course of running my business (Industrial Machine Work) I have to buy bulk raw material such as Aluminum, Steel, Bronse, and Acrylic. Nothing too big, $500 - $2000 per order.

But today was a bit different. When asked all of my suppliers reported "business has been picking up greatly in the last 2 months". 1 of my suppliers was even out of stock on common sizes of Aluminum Bar stock because the up tick had caught him by surprise.

This is American Manufacturing - not the corporate importation of foreign products.

Most of my orders have been parts for industrial machinery, with some consumer goods mixed in

[dionysus]

1. suh-weeet

[atreides1]

2. And?

[Tuesday Afternoon]

52. *crickets*

[annabanana]

3. Every bit of good news welcomed

(by ME anyway)

[cliffordu]

4. K&R.

I love AMERICAN heavy metal.

I mean the kind you can make shit with.

[laughingliberal]

7. Glad you clarified that

I thought you meant Judas Priest

[DJ13]

11. JP is British

lol

[dmallind]

12. Nah they're English ;)

[leftstreet]

5. so your point is going to be.....

:shrug:

[A HERETIC I AM]

8. His point is pretty obvious...

and it seems to me it's straight from the trenches, so to speak.

There has been a noticeable uptick in orders from his suppliers.

This is very good news for the economy, as I'm willing to bet his experience is not unique.

But Leftstreet, I'll bet you already knew that, you just wanted to put up the "shrug" smiley cause you like the way it looks, right?

[leftstreet]

10. Business is about to pick up for US Health Insurance Companies

Jeez...lighten up.

I was just looking for some clarification.



:shrug: :shrug: :shrug:

[A HERETIC I AM]

16. Fair enough.

Sorry for the snark.

[Mojorabbit]

43. It isn't picking up in the food distribution business

especially bakeries. Orders are way down from them and a lot of smaller companies are going to be sold and eaten up by larger ones or are going under. Family members in this field.
Hubby is seeing much sicker patients as people put off seeing the doc. Asking around, it seems to be pretty universal among other docs in town.
I am glad a segment of the manufacturing base is looking up but it isn't happening everywhere.

[FreakinDJ]

9. This would represent the "Up-Tick" in Durable Goods orders

making it's way down to the lower tiers of manufacturing and supply chains. (don't mistake me for an advocate of Trickle Down Economics)

In short - The Up Tick in Durable Goods was not a "Fluke" or speculation by LARGE corporations. These are genuine signs of growth through out the manufacturing sector.

[Orsino]

51. Because business for several suppliers picked up for at least two months...

...no doom can ever befall us.

Because there is no such thing as an economic cycle, and all upward trends are guaranteed to continue indefinitely.

[boobooday]

6. I like the sound of that. n/t

[OregonBlue]

13. Thanks for this. I sure hope this is not a fluke and is the real deal!!!

[Odin2005]

14. K&R

[dmallind]

15. Anecdotal true - but they don't listen to data either so what the hey

Actually - and likewise anecdotally - I agree. I'm a supply chain and operations guy. We buy a bit more than the OP - usually about 1-1.2 million pounds of steel a year. It's getting tighter. Our painting subcontractor (local) cannot keep up with demand and his lead times are going out. Our die casting house (CT) is pushing out lead times. No doubt other companies are faring less well, and we ourselves are certainly still way done from a couple of years ago, but beginning to see more pull from customers also.

Optimism in manufacturing is increasing. the average work week is over 40 hours and temp usage is going up. These are sure signs that hiring decisions will soon ahve to be made. Nobody is predicting 4% unemployment by year end, but there are no signs that point to continued decline.

[AllyCat]

17. This is good news.

Hope it holds true for other markets/businesses. While I am a pessimist about this economy, it is good to hear all the encouraging stuff we can!

[lamp_shade]

18. Thanks. Good news indeed.

[Warpy]

19. I'm very glad to hear this

because it's people who actually make things that are creating wealth, not the paper pushers in the banks who are shuffling around numbers trying to make themselves look solvent.

This is very good news. I hope your suppliers come through for you soon, though.

[AllentownJake]

20. That is good news

Durable goods orders suggest that businesses are investing in the future.

[onethatcares]

21. that means scrap prices will go up too.

glad to hear it.

[izzybeans]

22. My dad worked for a plastics manufacturer, their sales were a good

barometer for economic swings.

Now GE Plastics is owned by a Saudi Arabian Co and he's retired. I hope they are doing well down at the plant.

this is a good sign. Thanks for the report.

[LeftHander]

23. rrrright....

he just fed you a line of crap....actually your supplier is broke and is waiting for a loan to buy more stock. His suppliers stopped shipping and inventories were depleted.

Like he is going to say...ah we don't have your stock cause we are about to go under.

Every freakin' customer would run for the doors.

[Bucky]

34. News Report: "Looks like clear skies today". LeftHander: "We're all going to die of sun cancer!"

You're not invited to my tea party.

[laughingliberal]

24. This is good news. I keep seeing a little hope in our business, too

Not enough to save us, probably but still positive signs. My husband is in a business largely dependent on the housing market-custom finishes for cabinets and wood work in new residential construction and remodels as well as restoration of antiques. Needless to say, we've been destitute for a couple of years, now. Business started falling off in 2006. In 2007 our phone did not ring, I mean not once. He spent the summer scrapping iron to get us grocery and gas money. About last October we started getting some calls, again, and wound up with a couple of decent jobs which kept us in food and gas. There was a steady little trickle coming in through the winter and summer until a couple of weeks ago. It's slowed to a crawl again but this is, traditionally, the time of year we dry up. The jobs we get called in on are generally high end, custom homes for people who have more money than they know how to spend. In 2006 and 2007 none of these people were spending any money. This class does seem to loosening their grip again which is a hopeful sign to me that they feel things are going the right direction.

[Stinky The Clown]

25. I take much more positivity from this sort of nooz than that from the people who blow ....

...... blow ersatz sunshine up my ass for political reasons.

[nadinbrzezinski]

26. Here is more

last year the post office did NOT hire temps... no need mostly. Hell they were having a problem in keeping everybody in the payroll.

Well this year they are considering it, and we are looking at ... overtime.

So yes things are starting to move.

Oh wait, here is the obligatory....

THE SKY IS FALLING, RUN FOR THEM HILLS!!!!!!

[bhikkhu]

27. Good news is fine

Though I listen to a fairly steady stream of doom and gloom at the shop where I work, mostly from customers, our sales are up 10% for 2009, after being up 5% for 2008. Being a very local business, this could easily be just gaining market share from the other guys who are more prone to overcharging and overselling.

[pengillian101]

28. Great news here in northern MN also.

Folks around here are extremely happy. The iron mines are the major employers around here. And when they shut down - everyone feels it. This will be a great boost for all. :-)

************

Posted by Sara Niklas --- Story Published: Dec 3, 2009 at 5:31 PM CST

Workers at the Keetac mine near Keewatin will be called back to work on Monday.

Keetac has been shut down for a year.

Two hundred workers were prematurely recalled earlier this fall, only to be disappointed when U.S. Steel decided the plant would remain idle.

The news came just in time for many Keetac workers who would otherwise have lost their health benefits this month.

Steelworkers' Union President Jack Thronson is optimistic that this time the call back will stick.

"It's looking good for all of us then, and for the industry as long as it keeps going strong," said Thronson.

Thronson is not sure how many workers will be recalled at this time."

http://www.northlandsnewscenter.com/news/local/78470182.html

[bridgit]

29. Good News!!

:toast:

[Greyhound]

30. Great News!

How many people have you hired?

[FreakinDJ]

37. Just 1 - my son part time

My son moved home last Sept so he could attend college. He'll be running off parts in the evenings. The machines are fully automated and only require button pushing and some one to monitor them.

But we are sending out parts for final assembly and finishing

[voc]

31. Great News. nt

[ZombieHorde]

32. Thanks for the good news, I needed it. K&R&nt

[Bucky]

33. I find this post stimulating.

Perhaps a little too much so.

Excuse for a minute, please. Once again rampant capitalism has given me a boner.

[TexasObserver]

35. Recommend

[Hekate]

36. KnR. Always glad to hear some positive news!

:toast:

[barbtries]

38. a feet on the ground report

good to learn. my son is a plumber in So CA and has more work than he can handle. thanks for sharing, and for the hopefulness.

eta he does remodels and new construction exclusively, and radiant heat.

[mullard12ax7]

39. So why is California about to declare bankruptcy?

Good for you and your anecdotes but do you have the ability to see the entire economy of a state or even a country?

[slackmaster]

48. Because California has been run by a bunch of fucking morons for about 20 years

That's why.

[Nikki Stone1]

40. I hope your experience is multiplied a hundred times across the nation

God knows, we need it.

[MrsCorleone]

41. Business has been decent since June for us. We're still cautious,

but things things are looking better.

I think that a lot of folks are "addicted" to doom, hoping and praying for this country to go all Mad Max. Many seem to get a thrill out of the chaos. My observation tells me these folks are bored &, perhaps need a little thrill in their lives. Most of the doomers that I come into contact with are federal employees or retired with sweet gov pensions, so they have pretty substantial safety nets and are largely protected from negative market forces.

Then you have those that went all short in the stock market last March without a proper hedge. Ouch.

[LeftHandPath]

42. Of course its getting better...

Look at everything that has changed...

Banks are now solvent, they have stopped all the fraudulent Credit Default Swaps, Mortgage Backed Security, and Structure Investment Vehicle nonsense. Glass-Steigal has been reinstated so that investment banks cant take excessive leverage using borrowed dollars for the Fed/US Taxpayers.

The Fed has stopped printing money to buy our own debt, and to purchase billions worth of garbage MBS.

We are out of Iraq and Afghanistan, and the giant sucking sound of endless deficit spending has ceased.

Our debt is now contracting at a rate higher than GDP growth.

Americans are now more credit worthy due to increasing wages and employment.

Inflation is back under control with manageable interest rates that reward savers, the retired, and those on fixed incomes.

We passed a law to stop rewarding corporations who endlessly move jobs overseas so they can replace high cost American workers.

The dollar is strong, and is once again seen as the preferred reserve currency for the world.

Housing prices are once again growing at a sustainable 10% a year.

And monkeys just started flying out of my butt.

Party on!

[valerief]

44. Good news. Hope it spreads like a cold. American business needs it. nt

[Peacetrain]

45. Yee HAH!!!!!! that is great...

Growth in American buisness.. hard manufacturing.. I am loving this, just loving it!!!!

[Major Hogwash]

46. What with all of the tin foil hats being made lately, I'm not surprised aluminum sales are up,

Christ, have you ever seen a Glenn Beck studio audience?

See what I mean?

LoL

[slackmaster]

47. I'll bet you're making gas centrifuge components to ship to Iran

Shame on you!!!

[FreakinDJ]

50. Funny you should mention that

The Engineer in charge of the project kept trying to assure me they were just "Recycling Plutonium"

but that was nerely 20 yrs ago and they weren't leaving the US

[HughMoran]

49. We've seen our biggest orders ever - this company is 30 years old

Parts are becoming hard to find as their is a competition for available stock. Some vendors are on allocation already. Will it last? I don't know, but the 4th quarter is doing OK best I can tell.